ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[dabears]

What happens if it stalls and wobbles a little bit once it crosses the Yucatan?

[StormClouds63]

Alex, part 2 (a.k.a. Karl). Mexico-bound thanks to the big ridge of high pressure. WGOM season has only a few weeks to go ... so far, so good.

[RL3AO]

Hello Karl.

[brunota2003]

I wouldn't say that too loudly, you might get proven wrong.

Where is the VDM, btw?

[Aric Dunn]

What happens if it stalls and wobbles a little bit once it crosses the Yucatan?

right now it would have stall for a while and the ridge would have to slide east with a trough digging down for it to do anything other than go into mexico.. that however is very unlikely..

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldn't say that too loudly, you might get proven wrong.

Where is the VDM, btw?

Was wondering that too... Probably kind of hard to place the center just yet.

[Vortmax1]

We do not yet have a Vortex message confirming the data.
Until that happens and the NHC actually publishes something...it hasn't happened!

[southerngale]

WHXX01 KWBC 141847
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100914 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100914 1800 100915 0600 100915 1800 100916 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 83.6W 18.8N 85.9W 19.6N 88.2W 20.4N 90.3W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100916 1800 100917 1800 100918 1800 100919 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 92.2W 22.0N 95.4W 22.6N 99.0W 23.2N 102.8W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 83.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 81.1W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 78.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 10NM RD34SE = 10NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[mf_dolphin]

If you notice 92L has been dropped from the map at the top of this forum. That usually happens when an upgrade is pending.

[TheBurn]

[Vortmax1]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 19:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 19:24:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°10'N 83°55'W (18.1667N 83.9167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 183 miles (295 km) to the WSW (245°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the S (176°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 255° at 27kts (From the WSW at ~ 31.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the S (176°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 214m (702ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 212m (696ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 34kts (~ 39.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:32:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[lester]

VDM out in the recon thread.

[Aric Dunn]

NRL only has Thirteen. no Karl..

[latitude_20]

64.4 MPH surface wind? Am I reading that correctly?

[JonathanBelles]

64.4 MPH surface wind? Am I reading that correctly?

Yes, but the FL winds are quite low. The spread between FL and SFMR is quite large. I would go with 45mph-50mph intensity with that data.

[cycloneye]

I think they will wait till 5 PM as there is little time if they go ahead with a special advisory.

[ColinDelia]

SHIPS output says Karl.


* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* KARL AL132010 09/14/10 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 47 53 58 70 79 87 93 93 92 91 89
V (KT) LAND 35 40 47 53 42 32 46 53 60 49 34 29 27
V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 46 53 44 32 45 57 71 68 40 31 28

[Aric Dunn]

yeah Im pretty sure its karl but was wondering why NRL just put Thirteen..

[Vortmax1]

NRL just put Thirteen

The NRL does that all the time.
Basically it is Storm 13 whether it has a name or not.

[lrak]

Hello Karl.

Hi!