ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Shuriken]

Couple of things:

1. Igor appears to be under the influence of an easterly surface surge this afternoon, resulting in relative westerly shear at the mid-levels and an eye tilted from west at the surface to east aloft.

2. The storm appears to have increased forward speed during this episode, and seems to track more west than northwest when making "sprints".

3. The storm has noticeably intensified during all this. The CDO is almost twice as big as it was this morning, and tops much colder.

4. The intensity burst appears correlated with a better northern exhaust channel.


My hunch is that Igor is transitioning to annular.

[Weatherfreak000]

Couple of things:

1. Igor appears to be under the influence of an easterly surface surge this afternoon, resulting in relative westerly shear at the mid-levels and an eye tilted from west at the surface to east aloft.

2. The storm appears to have increased forward speed during this episode, and seems to track more west than northwest when making "sprints".

3. The storm has noticeably intensified during all this. The CDO is almost twice as big as it was this morning, and tops much colder.

4. The intensity burst appears correlated with a better northern exhaust channel.


My hunch is that Igor is transitioning to annular.

Great post, i'm awaiting myself with interest. Cat 5 maybe still a possibility...

[SouthFloridawx]

About to say goodnight to Igor! We'll see you tomorrow.

[Shuriken]

Time-sensitive: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Note the rapid increase in size; at the beginning, you can still see ocean around Igor; at the end, the hurricane covers almost all of the frame.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html (Select 30 frames, 100% quality, High zoom.)

Igor is presently at 53W. Isabel first achieved cat-5 rating at 55W. (Interestingly, Isabel also suffered a short weakening phase around 50W after first reaching cat-4 intensity earlier.)

[bob rulz]

Igor making a run for cat 5...wouldn't be surprised to see it reach that overnight. Hopefully it's a cat 5 during the day so we can get some beautiful visible images! It needs to straighten out that northwest quadrant before reaching cat 5 intensity though...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Test test test. The board has gone awful quiet and no discussion about the 5 o'clock update.

[cyclonic chronic]

everyone is over at karls page.
should be close enough to bermuda to be in radar range. i think recon will fly tommrow, they just might find a borderline cat 5. no matter what they'll get good info for how bad bermuda could be.

[rosethornil]

Still waiting for one of the smart people to offer a prediction as to when this thing will get close to the East Coast. In other words, when should we panic?

[emeraldislencguy]

read the discussion so I guess the east coast threat is very very low
except fot the waves
everyone is now saying we can write this one off for an east coast threat
what does the other members feel

[Aquawind]

Shheeeeshh looking better than ever.. I would be thinking about a flight outta Bermuda.

[Iune]

Anyone else notice that the NHC is forecasting Igor to approach and pass by Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 100-110 knots?

[cyclonic chronic]

w.v. looks ragged on the n.w. side. maybe dry air entrainment, or an e.r.c.?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

[bob rulz]

Anyone else notice that the NHC is forecasting Igor to approach and pass by Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 100-110 knots?

I wouldn't be surprised if it was stronger than that even, although I also wouldn't be too surprised if it was weaker. Then again, Igor has looked rather resilient, staying at cat 4 for quite a while now and seemingly just ignoring the fact that it was supposed to be going through an EWRC.

[CrazyC83]

What sent Isabel due northwest unabated, and what is the difference for Igor?

[HURAKAN]

great vapor image

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[Tstormwatcher]

Here is Bermuda's weather forecast and radar too. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Bermuda%20International,%20Bermuda&wuSelect=WEATHER

[Macrocane]

I agree that Igor is looking better than ever, it's such a beautiful storm, if I were in Bermuda I would be watching this very carefully I know they have good constructions but the idea of a cat 3 hurricane is scary.

[Gustywind]

[brunota2003]

Recon is not scheduled to fly until the 16th, or Thursday, and they do not start 12 hourly fixes until Friday.