Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[Vortex]

The area the models seem to pick up on is near 8/35W...

[plasticup]

At least it's only a 974 mb low. That would equate to a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2, right? I think FL can handle that.

There's not a lot of reliability in these models, but what reliability they do have lies mainly in their synoptics and tracking rather than in their intensity estimates.

[jimvb]

It seems that the last few GFS runs suggest the remnants of a hurricane coming up through the Deep South to the VA/WV Appalachians on or about Sept 26-30. If so, that will give Richmond a big pile of rain. That is what we need now. The reservoirs are drying and all the cities and counties have mandatory water use restrictions.

[ColinDelia]

Sorta weird how this blew up into an incredible looking wave further North yesterday and then the convection suddenly disappeared.
That thing looked monstrous.

Update on the two pools of vorticity. The southern one almost at 5N. That sure won't develop for a while.

[cycloneye]

This is the San Juan NWS afternoon discussion about looking ahead to new threats.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

TROPICS ARE VERY ACTIVE WITH THREE ACTIVE SYSTEMS AND TWO OTHER
POTENTIAL AREAS OF INTEREST IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. ONE SMALL
DISTURBANCE EMBBEDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR 8N
AND 36W BETWEEN IGOR AND JULIA. ASCAT PASSES LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAVE SHOWN A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE OTHER AREA OF
INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE W AFRICAN COASTLINE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION SYSTEM FROM THE GFS (GFES) SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING IN
DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SYSTEMS. THE FIRST AREA NEAR 8N AND 36W LOOKS TO
PASS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON MON OR TUE. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS NEAR THE W AFRICAN COASTLINE AND IS ALREADY GENERATING
VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND SURROUNDED BY VERY MOIST MID LEVELS.
GLOBAL MODELS AND GFES SHOW A WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM. ONE CLUSTER OF GFES MEMBERS SHOW THE WAVE
DEVELOPING INTO A TC RECURVING BEFORE REACHING 40W WHILE THE VERY
RELIABLE ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING WEST INTO THE CNTRL ATLC
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE FURTHER SOUTH POSITIONS OF BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS WHEN COMPARED TO IGOR AND JULIA AND THE FLAT RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC NEXT WEEK WOULD
EXPECT BOTH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO TRACK WWD WITH NO RECURVATURE.
OVERALL EXPECTING A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

[Vortex]

very interesting....the one at 8N has my attention. The other looks to recurve early IMO.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS rolls in 15...

[Ivanhater]

No one posted the 12z Euro while I was in class?

Not a phantom cane on the GFS. The Euro has the same low beginning to organize in the Western Caribbean at 240 hours.

[Vortex]

I think the euro has the wave near 8/38 just sw of Jamaica at H+240. Same one GFS blows up and send to FL....

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS at 102 hours shows the double low very well

[Vortex]

H+126 wave at 10N/58W looks to be the carribean low that gets going...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

[Ivanhater]

150..Approaching the extreme southern Islands

[Vortex]

H+150 Wave pushing through windwards..GFS has been very consistent with this feature...this is the area which should spawn the cyclone in the western carribean....




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[Vortex]

Of course Ivan always beats me to it

[DisasterMagnet]

Hmmm...my Sierra Leone "blob" wasn't my imagination.

[Ivanhater]

Lol Vortex

180 hours

[Vortex]

H+180 Low in SE Carribean...very consisten by the GFS I think this is close to a lock



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[Vortex]

got me again! lol

[Vortex]

H+252..blowing up


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

[Vortex]

H+300 Yucatan hit





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif