ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[Vortmax1]

They are not going to cruise into a real threat with thousands on a boat.. they do change plans and will if they think a threat exists

I have three children.
If they were on a ship out there I would be very nervous no matter how much I know about weather!

[cyclonic chronic]

is that the southern eyewall starting to form on the northern side of the big blob of covection on that micro image? tis the season of r.i.

[JtSmarts]

Any guesses for future intensity? I'm thinking 40 kts at 8 and 45 kts at 11, given he doesn't start to go crazy.

[lester]

49 kts FL wind found. Supports ~45 kts at the surface. ut-oh

[HURAKAN]

223000 1827N 08425W 9250 00713 0032 +223 +216 093047 049 039 006 00

easily 40 knots at 8 pm

[CrazyC83]

49 kt at that level is 37 kt at the surface. Still at least a good case for 40 kt.

[HURAKAN]

49 kt at that level is 37 kt at the surface. Still at least a good case for 40 kt.

223000 1827N 08425W 9250 00713 0032 +223 +216 093047 049 039 006 00
223030 1828N 08425W 9240 00728 0040 +216 +211 088047 047 038 006 00
223100 1830N 08425W 9252 00721 0044 +214 +212 087046 048 037 007 00
223130 1831N 08425W 9255 00722 0048 +222 +198 089047 049 037 006 00

[Houstonia]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
What I want to know is who allowed this to happen. My kids are cruising to Progresso and Cozumel right now. I think they get to Progresso this afternoon and Cozumel Thursday morning.

vb - I am assuming your kids took the 5-day cruise out of Galveston? If so, I just got off of that cruise two weeks ago. The schedule was: Monday - Leave Galveston, Tuesday - Day at Sea, Wednesday - Progreso, Thursday - Cozumel, Friday - Day at Sea, Saturday morning - port at Galveston, 8:00 am.

I hope this helps you.

Sorry - I went off-topic to respond to this - back to TS Karl.

[lester]

49 kt at that level is 37 kt at the surface. Still at least a good case for 40 kt.

I stand corrected then.

[JtSmarts]

Recon confirms what the image Hurakan posted above shows with most of the convection occurring south of the center.

[brunota2003]

Freaking lopsided storms...but that very well may help keep the intensity down. Once this bird leaves, the next flight isn't supposed to arrive on station until 0530Z, or 0130 am edt.

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic!

[brunota2003]

Well, recon just started climbing for their flight home...here is the next flight:

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 15/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 15/0245Z
D. 19.0N 86.5W
E. 15/0530Z TO 15/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Take off at 1045 pm, arriving on station at 0130 am.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

Wrapping up very well, amazing how fast these systems can change in 24hrs from next to nothing to a full blwon TC...

40kts sounds reasonable based on recon, probably will continue to broadly gain latitude but nothing too extensive...looks like it'll almost certainly get into the BoC which looks primed for strengthening at the moment.

[Florida1118]

Seriously why did they call this Karl...A TS wind area of 10miles?

[lrak]

Seriously why did they call this Karl...A TS wind area of 10miles?

Seriously take 10 miles and place it over an area of population?

[Iune]

Seriously why did they call this Karl...A TS wind area of 10miles?

As far as I remember, the Atlantic just needs ship report of TS-force winds or the detection of TS-force winds to upgrade.

[srainhoutx]

A cyclone is a cyclone no matter how small. Convection should continue to wrap around the center of Karl as the evening wears on IMO. Latest microwave pass looked impressive regarding early development.