ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Seriously why did they call this Karl...A TS wind area of 10miles?

Seriously take 10 miles and place it over an area of population?

But 40mph winds? And I dont get all the Watches and Warnings for the Yucatan when the surface area of weak TS winds are so small. I understand all the rain, but there are flood advisory's for that...

[KWT]

Yeah the NHC said it had a very small core of TS winds but it was quite a tight inner part of the system...still they don't have to be big to ccause problems, look at TC Tracy for example of that...

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 84.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[KWT]

So its a little strongr then it was before Cycloneye?

Now at 40kts either way...

[cycloneye]

So its a little strongr then it was before Cycloneye?

Now at 40kts either way...

Yes,was at 35kts at 5 PM.

[HurrMark]

Wow...I was away for a couple of days, and two more storms are added.

I'm telling you...this is indeed turning into a hyperactive season...although 99% of the US population doesn't realize this. This may turn out to be the quietest "active" season on record...

[lrak]

Seriously why did they call this Karl...A TS wind area of 10miles?

Seriously take 10 miles and place it over an area of population?

But 40mph winds? And I dont get all the Watches and Warnings for the Yucatan when the surface area of weak TS winds are so small. I understand all the rain, but there are flood advisory's for that...

ok so a strengthening TD couple hundred miles off the coast moving your way and a flood advisory is sufficient as far as you're concerned?

[Florida1118]

ok so a strengthening TD couple hundred miles off the coast moving your way and a flood advisory is sufficient as far as you're concerned?

Im not try to Insult anything or Offend anything because I feel that you think I am trying to.... IMO I think TS watches and Flood Watches would be fine. but I dont understand when a Cyclone has a 10mile radius of 40-45mph winds and nearly the whole side of the Yucatan has Warnings up...

[latitude_20]

Can we settle this after school?

[latitude_20]

I have some friends in the area - interested in promet opinions/insights on further strengthening prior to landfall on the YP.

[brunota2003]

It might be 10 miles now, but it could be 40 or 50 or even 100 miles in just a day...put that on the coastline, then factor in the margin of error, plus the regularly used points for ending watches/warnings (which may not line up perfectly with the margin of error), and tadah, you have your watch line.

[srainhoutx]

ok so a strengthening TD couple hundred miles off the coast moving your way and a flood advisory is sufficient as far as you're concerned?

Im not try to Insult anything or Offend anything because I feel that you think I am trying to.... IMO I think TS watches and Flood Watches would be fine. but I dont understand when a Cyclone has a 10mile radius of 40-45mph winds and nearly the whole side of the Yucatan has Warnings up...

Often as squalls approach the coast of a land falling Tropical Storm, winds that are of TS force or higher can be experienced miles away from the center. Let's not get too hung up on the current wind radii. It will be different in a few hours and advisories I suspect. Moving on...

[Florida1118]

ok so a strengthening TD couple hundred miles off the coast moving your way and a flood advisory is sufficient as far as you're concerned?

Im not try to Insult anything or Offend anything because I feel that you think I am trying to.... IMO I think TS watches and Flood Watches would be fine. but I dont understand when a Cyclone has a 10mile radius of 40-45mph winds and nearly the whole side of the Yucatan has Warnings up...

Often as squalls approach the coast of a land falling Tropical Storm, winds that are of TS force or higher can be experienced miles away from the center. Let's not get too hung up on the current wind radii. It will be different in a few hours and advisories I suspect. Moving on...

Ah ok. Forgot About the Bands. Thanks!

[CrazyC83]

14/2345 UTC 18.4N 85.1W T2.5/2.5 KARL -- Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

00z

AL, 13, 2010091500, , BEST, 0, 185N, 849W, 40, 999, TS

40 knots

[cpdaman]

the thing with small systems is they can wind up fast and wind down fast...

so this needs to be watched very closely....because in the BOC it could go boom....so long as it maintains it's LLC

[Wx_Warrior]

From KFDM chief met Greg Bostwick (Beaumont, TX):

Tropical Storm Karl will move over the Yucatan Wednesday morning. Should then move into the southwestern Gulf Thursday. No threat to our area with a final landfall well south of Brownsville.

[Ptarmigan]

Karl is a small storm. Probably one of the smallest tropical cyclones on record besides Marco (2008) and Tracy (1974). Karl is so small that it could easily fit inside of Ike or Katrina's eye. It is over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. That is fuel for hurricanes.



Its small size and warm water would allow it to rapidly intensify into a hurricane, probably into a major hurricane. I would not be surprised if Karl goes under explosive development like Humberto did in 2007.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

It's sitting under extreme octane gasoline...just needs a good circulation to act as a fire.

[Ptarmigan]

It's sitting under extreme octane gasoline...just needs a good circulation to act as a fire.

Oh yeah. Karl has slowly strengthened.