ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Florida1118]

14/2345 UTC 18.9N 53.4W T7.0/7.0 IGOR -- Atlantic

Never mind. Got answered.

[hurricaneCW]

The last 3 hour motion is probably around 285-290. It looks like the current trough to the NNW of Igor is starting to lift out and weaken so I wouldn't be surprised to see more due west or just north of west wobbles. Interestingly enough, had there been a strong ridge building in after the trough passed, then Igor probably would have turned more to the west and increased its forward speed. There have been a lot of cyclones in this position that have gone from wnw/nw to west once the trough to the north of them lifted out.

A few that I can think of are Isabel, Floyd, Ike, Andrew, and others. Luckily for the U.S., we won't have a strong ridge rebuilding to the north of Igor so we won't have to worry about this monster following in the footsteps of past historical hurricanes.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 11, 2010091500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 535W, 135, 925, HU,

[TwisterFanatic]

135 kts?

[HURAKAN]

IMPRESSIVE

[Just Joshing You]

I wonder if they'll pull the trigger and go Cat 5?

[wxman57]

I wonder if they'll pull the trigger and go Cat 5?

I'm wondering the same thing. 135 kts = 155.5 mph. Could go either way.

[brunota2003]

155 mph...cool, 1 mph away from Cat 5.

[DanKellFla]

I wonder if they'll pull the trigger and go Cat 5?

I think they will wait for the post-season analysis to do that unless they get a recon mission out there.

[TwisterFanatic]

I think they put it at 156. IMO

[Just Joshing You]

If they go Cat 5, I see them as going 140 knot @ 11 pm. Is there any data to support 140 kt at the surface yet? Has there been a storm upgraded to Category 5 based on a 7.0 and 135 kt wind?

[RL3AO]

I love 135kt storms. Sites like wunderground show that as a cat 5 storm and it causes a bunch of problems, especially on wikipedia, which I'm sure crazyC83 can attest to.

[CrazyC83]

I love 135kt storms. Sites like wunderground show that as a cat 5 storm and it causes a bunch of problems, especially on wikipedia, which I'm sure crazyC83 can attest to.

Yep, but it rounds nicely on WP to show it is a Cat 4.

[hurricaneCW]

There's just enough evidence to upgrade to a Cat 5, Igor has a very strong ring of very cold cloud tops around the center, even some -80c grays showing up on IR.

[CrazyC83]

If they go Cat 5, I see them as going 140 knot @ 11 pm. Is there any data to support 140 kt at the surface yet? Has there been a storm upgraded to Category 5 based on a 7.0 and 135 kt wind?

Well, the data has to be mixed right now. A near-consensus 7.0 would support 140 kt.

[superfly]

Very cold tops but I don't think the eye is symmetric enough for them to go cat 5.

[JtSmarts]

How warm are those waters he's currently traveling over?

[SunnyThoughts]

[Just Joshing You]

I don't see the harm in keeping it Cat 4 or the harm in going Cat 5. If there is a case to keep it 4, then do so, but 7.0 T numbers are normally Cat 5.

[RL3AO]

It looks like a strong 4 or 5 for sure. Just wish we had recon. However, when you talk about a possible 5 and complain about no recon, that means its not a threat to land (at least in the near term).