ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[cpdaman]

i'd like to see him go 920< for a cat 5 classification...

this bouy should have rapidly building seas imminently and then get plastered late tommorrow

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41044

[CrazyC83]

It takes a LOT of confidence to go up to Cat 5 when there is no Recon out there.

[Malcome]

I'm beginning to wonder if this bad boy may make it's way to Nova Scotia, which is where I am from, or is it going to recurve back out to sea?

[HURAKAN]

from Isabel's discussion:

"DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL
3 AGENCIES...TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE NOW 7.0 AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS ARE ALSO ABOUT THE SAME VALUE. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KT...A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE."

Link - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/di ... .023.shtml?

[mettski]

wow. eye contracting like, borderline cat 5 imo. but agree will be amazed if upgrade happens without recon.

[hurricaneCW]

They'll probably go to 155 mph, it doesn't look good enough to be classified as a Cat 5. The eye is a little bit lopsided, there's some dry air just outside of the inner core. Yet, with a strong ring of red and even gray around an eye, it's very close. If they do upgrade, it'll be one of the worst looking Cat 5's I've ever seen. No offense to Igor, he's a powerful and great looking storm, but a Cat 5 storm should be perfect. Just take a look at Rita or Katrina and you'll know what I mean.

[SunnyThoughts]

Raw ADT up to 7.1
2010SEP15 001500 6.7 931.0/ +1.6 /132.2 6.7 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.64 -73.61 EYE 27 IR 18.90 53.40 COMBO

[brunota2003]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2010 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 18:49:16 N Lon : 53:19:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 936.6mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.8 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +14.0C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cpdaman]

They'll probably go to 155 mph, it doesn't look good enough to be classified as a Cat 5. The eye is a little bit lopsided, there's some dry air just outside of the inner core. Yet, with a strong ring of red and even gray around an eye, it's very close. If they do upgrade, it'll be one of the worst looking Cat 5's I've ever seen. No offense to Igor, he's a powerful and great looking storm, but a Cat 5 storm should be perfect. Just take a look at Rita or Katrina and you'll know what I mean.

strongly agree ....and further i think this is a145 mph cat 4....and will continue to unless i see the eye contract a tad more and deep gray's surrounding him...but i'm not that smart lol.....can't be handing out cat 5's like candy

[cpdaman]

westward bound again igor is ....what a kooky fellow

NHC disco did mention this but really .....the thing IMO to watch for any surprises trackwise...is wether the 0z ecmwf says it's 12z run today was on crack (the run that took igor well SW of bermuda) although even the 18z gfs takes igor barely west of the island (which was a shift)

i'm looking at a loop from 1945 to 0115 5 1/2 hours and it is about 285 movement....with a 3hr movement of 275 .

[plasticup]

I'm beginning to wonder if this bad boy may make it's way to Nova Scotia, which is where I am from, or is it going to recurve back out to sea?

The models confidently and consistently call for a recurve, but that is beyond 5 days and errors are common. Wait 2-3 more days and the NHC should confirm whether he will continue with a recurving path.

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't look like a cat 5

[cpdaman]

Doesn't look like a cat 5

granted that was 3 hrs ago..(615pm)..but no it doesn't

[Weatherfreak000]

Presentation is continuing to improve, there is a strong possibility this may make cat 5.

[cpdaman]

Presentation is continuing to improve, there is a strong possibility this may make cat 5.

well yes there is a strong possibility this "may" make cat 5

but judging by the weakening structure here on the last two frames

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

it surely wont be at 11

[HURAKAN]

latest

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2010 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 18:53:47 N Lon : 53:27:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 933.8mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.8 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : +14.7C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

Given all the data, I would hold it at 135 kt at 11 pm. While it has improved since that microwave, there just isn't enough confidence to move up. I'd want to see the ADT number closer to 7.0 as well.

[plasticup]

The most powerful convection still looks a little rough in the northwest portion of the CDO, especially in the latest (00:45 UTC) frame. He is definitely stronger than he was, but there are imperfections that Category 5 storms don't tend to have.

[Kingarabian]

The NHC early this season made Hurricane Celia in the Eastern Pacific a Cat. 5 hurricane without recon.