Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

20 N! I want to hear 20N!
then I can start breathing again!

Absolutely me too Msbee that will be excellent news. Matter of time but let's continue to monitor Igor in case of...

[Boriken]

OMG looks like 92L is looking better than ever today. watch out all of you in the Yucatan peninsula.

[msbee]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141749
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...AND ON HURRICANE JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
315 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
HAS FORMED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15
MPH...AND INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND BELIZE
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Be careful neighbors!

[cycloneye]

BZSTORM, stay safe there and keep us informed when you can about any effects from this developing system.

[Macrocane]

I'm becoming really interested in 92L, even if El Salvador and Guatemala are not mentioned in the TWO we usually feel the effects of a tropical cyclone when it is near Yucatan or in the BOC they lift the ITCZ producing heavy rains in the Pacific coast of Central America, it happened with Alex, Arthur, Dean, Stan just to mention a few.

[abajan]

Beautiful (but hot) weather here, compliments of Igor. Except for some dark clouds over the center of the island, the sky is a pretty blue and the sea is many wonderful shades of blue, turquoise and green, and it’s quite placid to boot, at least on the south coast. It’s possible that swells are already arriving on the northeastern shores but I haven't heard any such reports.

I guess most of the islands in the chain must be experiencing similar conditions.

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,stay alert for next week. As always,the San Juan NWS office does a good job about looking ahead to things.

FXCA62 TJSJ 141936
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEST CNTRL ATLC INTO
NEXT WEEK. MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NW OVER THE
NEXT SVRL DAYS PASSING OVER 500 MILES NE OF PR EARLY FRI MORNING.
A WEAK BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL BE LARGELY DUE IN PART TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WELL AHEAD OF MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR. OTHER THAN AN
OVERALL SHIFT IN THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN DUE TO THE VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION OF IGOR IMPACTS FROM IGOR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO MARINE SECTION BELOW.

TROPICS ARE VERY ACTIVE WITH THREE ACTIVE SYSTEMS AND TWO OTHER
POTENTIAL AREAS OF INTEREST IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. ONE SMALL
DISTURBANCE EMBBEDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR 8N
AND 36W BETWEEN IGOR AND JULIA. ASCAT PASSES LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAVE SHOWN A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE OTHER AREA OF
INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE W AFRICAN COASTLINE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION SYSTEM FROM THE GFS (GFES) SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING IN
DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SYSTEMS. THE FIRST AREA NEAR 8N AND 36W LOOKS TO
PASS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON MON OR TUE. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS NEAR THE W AFRICAN COASTLINE AND IS ALREADY GENERATING
VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND SURROUNDED BY VERY MOIST MID LEVELS.
GLOBAL MODELS AND GFES SHOW A WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM. ONE CLUSTER OF GFES MEMBERS SHOW THE WAVE
DEVELOPING INTO A TC RECURVING BEFORE REACHING 40W WHILE THE VERY
RELIABLE ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING WEST INTO THE CNTRL ATLC
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE FURTHER SOUTH POSITIONS OF BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS WHEN COMPARED TO IGOR AND JULIA AND THE FLAT RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC NEXT WEEK WOULD
EXPECT BOTH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO TRACK WWD WITH NO RECURVATURE.
OVERALL EXPECTING A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND
ALL OVER THE PLACE AS AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY
LARGE CIRCULATION OF IGOR.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41044 ALREADY AT 11 FEET. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 11 FT FRI
AFTERNOON ON LARGE NE SWELLS WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRI. SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR SVRL MARINE
ZONES.

[msbee]

we have Tropical Storm Karl!
watch out guys!

000
WTNT43 KNHC 142052
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND
VIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.
THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS
OF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED
STRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13. KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER
KARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

KARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION. WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN
YUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12
AND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO
BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE
CONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL
WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.3N 84.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.9N 86.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.6N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/0600Z 20.4N 90.3W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 92.6W 35 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 96.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

Hey folks,stay alert for next week. As always,the San Juan NWS office does a good job about looking ahead to things.

FXCA62 TJSJ 141936
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEST CNTRL ATLC INTO
NEXT WEEK. MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NW OVER THE
NEXT SVRL DAYS PASSING OVER 500 MILES NE OF PR EARLY FRI MORNING.
A WEAK BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL BE LARGELY DUE IN PART TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WELL AHEAD OF MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR. OTHER THAN AN
OVERALL SHIFT IN THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN DUE TO THE VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION OF IGOR IMPACTS FROM IGOR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO MARINE SECTION BELOW.

TROPICS ARE VERY ACTIVE WITH THREE ACTIVE SYSTEMS AND TWO OTHER
POTENTIAL AREAS OF INTEREST IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. ONE SMALL
DISTURBANCE EMBBEDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR 8N
AND 36W BETWEEN IGOR AND JULIA. ASCAT PASSES LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAVE SHOWN A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE OTHER AREA OF
INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE W AFRICAN COASTLINE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION SYSTEM FROM THE GFS (GFES) SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING IN
DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SYSTEMS. THE FIRST AREA NEAR 8N AND 36W LOOKS TO
PASS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON MON OR TUE. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS NEAR THE W AFRICAN COASTLINE AND IS ALREADY GENERATING
VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND SURROUNDED BY VERY MOIST MID LEVELS.
GLOBAL MODELS AND GFES SHOW A WIDE ARRAY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM. ONE CLUSTER OF GFES MEMBERS SHOW THE WAVE
DEVELOPING INTO A TC RECURVING BEFORE REACHING 40W WHILE THE VERY
RELIABLE ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING WEST INTO THE CNTRL ATLC
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE FURTHER SOUTH POSITIONS OF BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS WHEN COMPARED TO IGOR AND JULIA AND THE FLAT RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC NEXT WEEK WOULD
EXPECT BOTH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO TRACK WWD WITH NO RECURVATURE.
OVERALL EXPECTING A WETTER AND MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND
ALL OVER THE PLACE AS AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY
LARGE CIRCULATION OF IGOR.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41044 ALREADY AT 11 FEET. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 11 FT FRI
AFTERNOON ON LARGE NE SWELLS WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRI. SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR SVRL MARINE
ZONES.

Oh damn and the ridge is to be strong next week?!... Looks like a second round of canes for the second part of September? Things continues to really heating up. Let's hope as usual for the best and be prepared for the worst. Maybe another signal to be super vigilant and on our guard for mid September. Time will tell.
Gustywind

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall
Tue Sep 14 2010

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 35.3C 95F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 32.9C 91F 5.1mm
Couva, C. Trinidad 35.1C 95F 10.2mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.6C 89F

Point Salines, Grenada 31.0C 88F trace
Grantley Adams, Barbados 32.1C 90F
Rockley, S. Barbados 32.9C 91F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.8C 91F
Hewannora, St Lucia 31.7C 89F

Le Lamentin, Martinique 33.4C 92F 0.2mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.1C 88F

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.8C 87F
West End, Anguilla 31.6C 89F
VC Bird, Antigua 31.1C 88F 0.3mm
Juliana Airport, St Maarten 31.8C 89F 3.1mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F 1.1mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.2C 85F 11.0mm
Kingston, Jamaica 32.2C 90F 9.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.6C 93F 8.0mm
Havana, Cuba 32.1C 90F 6.0mm

Nassau, Bahamas 32.0C 90F
Hamilton, Bermuda 29.0C 84F 27.0mm

Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 32.6C 91F
Hato Airport, Curacao 31.7C 89F
Queen Beatrix. Aruba 32.7C 91F 46.8mm OVERNIGHT Thunderstorm

Cayenne, French Guiana 32.9C 91F
Belize City, Belize 31.5C 89F 0.9mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR WILL START TO
REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT...

.SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA
PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 11
FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON LARGE NE SWELLS WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING
FOR SEVERAL MARINE ZONES. .

AMZ710-715-722-150515-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SC.Y.0052.100914T2200Z-100918T2200Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
509 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST SATURDAY.

SWELLS GENERATED BY THE MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR WILL START TO REACH OUR
LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[cpdaman]

igor really doesn't want to go back to WNW yet

he has been about 275 for last 3.5 hours.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[FireBird]

Rain, rain - go away! Come back another day!
Let's really hope Igor has some kinda heart in him, and he makes a rapid and sharp turn away. Keep up the vigilance my dear friends. We're in for round 2 this 2nd half of September as Gustywind mentioned earlier....

Abajan - you asked about flooding Monday. Yes, there was flooding in the east, central, and south Trinidad. Made headlines again, esp. the latter 2 areas. I heard the east was affected again Tuesday.

Let's all say it together now - rain, rain - go away! come back another day!

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Getting some external bands from Igor today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA EVEN WHILE THE CORE OF IGOR PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND HURRICANE IGOR OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL EDGE
SLOWLY NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK A
LOW WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN ON FRIDAY MORNING. THEN OVER
THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKLY BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM
THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
THE AREA MID-WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF MOISTURE FROM CONVERGENCE AROUND MAJOR
HURRICANE IGOR HAVE COME ONSHORE IN THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS LEAVING ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH TO OVER ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF CATANO AND TOA BAJA. THIS
CAUSED PRECIPITABLE WATER TO RISE FROM 1.2 INCHES TO MORE THAN 2.1
INCHES IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE SOUNDER IN SAN JUAN. THESE BANDS
WILL CAUSE INCREASES AND DECREASES IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY PASS BY
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE
FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST BETWEEN NOW AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE AREAS RECEIVING THE BEST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE COMING AFTERNOONS FROM SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE...A FEW AREAS
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH REPEATEDLY COULD SEE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK TO
EASTERLY LATE MONDAY.

CURRENT GFS MODEL RUN IS ALSO DEVELOPING WEAK TROUGHINESS IN THE
SOUTHWEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AND BRINGING IT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
NEXT TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE INVADING FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS SIMILAR TROUGHINESS WITH MUCH
LESS INTENSITY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR 40 WEST ON
MONDAY AND MOVES TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK
ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST OF THE GFS. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH MANY PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NOW
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE SEPTEMBER.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE TIST...TISX AND TJSJ...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS AT LEAST THROUGH 15/13Z. THE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS TJPS AND VICINITY...WITH
VCTS ACROSS TJMZ BTW 15/18Z TO 15/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTH NORTHEAST AFT
NOON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR IS BEGINNING TO SEND SWELLS TOWARD
THE AREA WITH 8.5 FOOT SWELL RECORDED AT THE OFFSHORE BUOY 41043 NORTH
OF SAINT THOMAS DURING THE LATE EVENING WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNSTEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IGOR
MOVES NORTHWEST AND PASSES SOME 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY UP IN THE ATLANTIC AND
THE ANEGADA PASSAGES. SEAS IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS COULD REACH 12 TO 16 FEET DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF IGOR.

[BZSTORM]

Karl not affecting us in the South Belize AT ALL - no rain dead calm here, overcast, last night temps started dropping around 7pm from 91F to 87F at my house. I overslept this morning so missed the early news, listening to Love FM radio right now and not hearing anything about TS Karl. If I hear anything further will advise u. Looking at radar image the heavier rain bands are affecting Belize city north to the border.

[Gustywind]

Rain, rain - go away! Come back another day!
Let's really hope Igor has some kinda heart in him, and he makes a rapid and sharp turn away. Keep up the vigilance my dear friends. We're in for round 2 this 2nd half of September as Gustywind mentioned earlier....

Abajan - you asked about flooding Monday. Yes, there was flooding in the east, central, and south Trinidad. Made headlines again, esp. the latter 2 areas. I heard the east was affected again Tuesday.

Let's all say it together now - rain, rain - go away! come back another day!

Thanks nice post as usual. Let's continue to monitor the progress of this second round of September, looking very suspicious.
Gustywind

[BZSTORM]

Love FM reporter on ground in Orange walk has just given this report. Report says Corazol has had constant steady rain since 4am no sign of flooding as yet and they say rain currently has just intensified, Winds occasional gusts of approx 25mph - report says any flooding if any will be aparent later today. But the general concensus is nothing major. We get 20kt winds in Belize almost all the time. TBH Alex had more impact. Much like Iris was years ago Karl is very tight and small, affecting a small area near the center, hoping those near center in Mexico are going to be ok.

[cycloneye]

Karl not affecting us in the South Belize AT ALL - no rain dead calm here, overcast, last night temps started dropping around 7pm from 91F to 87F at my house. I overslept this morning so missed the early news, listening to Love FM radio right now and not hearing anything about TS Karl. If I hear anything further will advise u. Looking at radar image the heavier rain bands are affecting Belize city north to the border.

Good news it seems from where you are.

[bvigal]

Good to hear BZ you not having much effect from Karl!

My internet problems have continued, but I THINK they are fixed now. Been watching Atlantic coast for signs of any big seas/swell, and they aren't here yet. I know peak period is up, but the seas are still only 3-4ft, to 6 further offshore. Anybody else in EC having large swells/rip currents/battering waves or beach erosion?

[Macrocane]

Great to hear those good news from you BZSORM. Here is El Salvador we have moderate to heavy rains south of San Salvador and the southerly winds have inreased on the last hour or so, this is the latest radar image:



The link to the radar: http://www.snet.gob.sv/googlemaps/radares/radar.php