ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like it is getting better organized.

[Macrocane]

The banding has improved, maybe if the bands wrap around the center they will help to increase Karl's size.

[Sanibel]

This is another pulse down. Karl has enough going for it that the SST's and inflow are keeping the CDO convected during the d-min.

[HURAKAN]

getting better organized

[cycloneye]

Forecast to become a hurricane in BOC.

72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 96.7W 65 KT

[JtSmarts]

We'll have more recon in the early morning hours right?? I wonder how strong he'll be when they get there.

[FLpanhandle91]

I expect decent intensification of Karl between now and when it crosses the Yucatan. Higher cloud tops are starting to spring up right around the LLC. I think it will maintain TS status and reach strong cat 1 - weak cat 2 status in the BOC.

[HURAKAN]

We'll have more recon in the early morning hours right?? I wonder how strong he'll be when they get there.

Discussion says RECON should arrive at 06z or 4 am edt

[brunota2003]

We'll have more recon in the early morning hours right?? I wonder how strong he'll be when they get there.

Discussion says RECON should arrive at 06z or 4 am edt

There is a 4 hour different...6 -4 = 2 am

[South Texas Storms]

06z is 2 am edt

[TheBurn]

[Annie Oakley]

The Burn.....WOW!

[Macrocane]

I think the intensity will be raised in the next intermediate, that microwave looks good.

[ROCK]

its going to sling some moisture up into Texas thats for sure....more south the less though....looks good...all I can say is finally after all that pulsing up and down the last 3 days...sheesh...

[South Texas Storms]

rock it doesnt look like much moisture unfortunately

[ROCK]

rock it doesnt look like much moisture unfortunately

depends on track STS...farther south probably some bands up into STX....look at that outer band way to the NW...

[Ptarmigan]

Computer models likely have harder time with smaller storms like Karl. Did any computer model sniff out Humberto in 2007?

[bob rulz]

Wouldn't a storm this small have a harder time keeping its circulation intact as it moves across the Yucatan? I have no doubt that conditions are insanely favorable in the Bay of Campeche but I can remember many times when a small storm was torn up very quickly moving across land, and models have a hard time with small systems as was said in the post above mine.

I'm not saying it will get torn apart, but wouldn't its small size make that more likely?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

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I fully expect RI tonight...explosive RI should be a hurricane by tomorrow at Noon and possibly
a strong one by afternoon it is wrapping very well.

The wrapping looks just like Wilma's initial wrapping when it was a TS,
but Karl will likely be inland soon so thankfully no Wilma here.

Look at the very large moisture envolope it is sucking in moisture from south of Cuba

I've got a gut feeling that Karl's intensification will put Humberto to shame
based on much higher octane waters than humberto and no shear.