ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[cpdaman]

The most powerful convection still looks a little rough in the northwest portion of the CDO, especially in the latest (00:45 UTC) frame. He is definitely stronger than he was, but there are imperfections that Category 5 storms don't tend to have.

(0145 frame) is a bit worse)

so while the 0045 est is 6.6...

the 0145 will move back down a tad at least IMO and based on the 0145 presentation.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

in my mind that is really not on the cusp of a cat 5 based on that 0115 or 0145 presentation

[abajan]

from Isabel's discussion:

"DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL
3 AGENCIES...TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE NOW 7.0 AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS ARE ALSO ABOUT THE SAME VALUE. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KT...A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE."

Link - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/di ... .023.shtml?

This is the second time I’ve looked at this post and been fooled into thinking you were referring to Igor!

[Dean4Storms]

And the move due west is on again!

[canes04]

Why is Igor moving due west for the past 6 hours? I know the 5pm discussion mentioned this.
I'm still thinking if he does not pick up speed he may get trapped by Friday.
We shall see.

[Gustywind]

[FLpanhandle91]

Seems dry air in the NW eye wall is keeping this thing from being cat 5.

[sicktght311]

According to weather underground, the 11pm update is up. 155mph sustained with gusts to 180. Moving wnw

[FLpanhandle91]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[JtSmarts]

[Riptide]

What is going on with the forward motion?
It needs to pick up speed if it is going to recurve.

EDIT: That weakness didn't last long. Igor is already returning to a W-WNW heading.

[FLpanhandle91]

Contrary to the latest update, I believe Igor is still around 18.8 - 18.9 N and continuing due west rather than being at 19 N and with a WNW movement.

[Shuriken]

everyone is over at karls page.

Where and what is Karl's page?

[Riptide]

There is your weakness.

[CrazyC83]

Discussion out. Agreed with the reasoning to hold it at 135 kt.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

everyone is over at karls page.

Where and what is Karl's page?

O/T: Go to Active Topics, and you'll see discussion of Tropical Storm Karl.

[Kyuuubi]

Contrary to the latest update, I believe Igor is still around 18.8 - 18.9 N and continuing due west rather than being at 19 N and with a WNW movement.

The WNW from what I read is a smoothing out of the westerly jogs that have been taking place. It was mentioned IIRC in the 5PM advisory

[Chacor]

WNW is merely mean motion over 6 hours, not necessarily motion at the exact time of the adv. Agree that with that missing slot of convection to NW thatthis isn't quite a 5 yet.

[Macrocane]

Officially the strongest hurricane since Felix and the lowest pressure since Dean.

[Florida1118]

Why does the map say he is a 5 when he is not?

[CrazyC83]

Why does the map say he is a 5 when he is not?

Rounding issues that make 135 round up to 156 mph. It is officially a strong 4.