ATL: KARL - Models
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
thats still him down there in 108 hours!? anything coming that could pick him up or make a final landfall?
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
South Texas Storms wrote:thats still him down there in 108 hours!? anything coming that could pick him up or make a final landfall?
nah at 114hr he decides he has enough flowers and moves into MX....big ole high sitting over NGOM pushes him out.....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
Uh...this is one of those situations in which it is helpful to look at other levels of the atmosphere. The 500 mb and 850 mb circulations appear to be near or on the coast at hour 84 and completely inland by hour 90.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
dwsqos2 wrote:Uh...this is one of those situations in which it is helpful to look at other levels of the atmosphere. The 500 mb and 850 mb circulations appear to be near or on the coast at hour 84 and completely inland by hour 90.
I am looking at the surface maps not upper air....but for the sake of looking...here is 108hr...
850mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_108l.gif
smidge of some voracity down there.
500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif
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- HURAKAN
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
Code: Select all
855
WHXX01 KWBC 151243
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC WED SEP 15 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100915 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100915 1200 100916 0000 100916 1200 100917 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 87.6W 19.0N 89.4W 19.5N 91.2W 19.9N 92.5W
BAMD 18.5N 87.6W 19.1N 89.8W 19.6N 91.6W 20.0N 93.2W
BAMM 18.5N 87.6W 19.3N 89.6W 19.9N 91.4W 20.6N 92.9W
LBAR 18.5N 87.6W 19.2N 90.1W 20.3N 92.4W 21.4N 94.3W
SHIP 55KTS 68KTS 80KTS 89KTS
DSHP 55KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100917 1200 100918 1200 100919 1200 100920 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 93.7W 20.5N 95.5W 21.3N 98.8W 22.1N 103.2W
BAMD 20.0N 94.3W 19.7N 96.5W 19.6N 99.9W 20.9N 104.3W
BAMM 20.9N 94.0W 21.2N 96.3W 21.5N 100.1W 22.5N 104.8W
LBAR 22.3N 96.2W 23.8N 99.3W 24.8N 102.3W 25.7N 105.1W
SHIP 98KTS 107KTS 100KTS 90KTS
DSHP 64KTS 49KTS 29KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 87.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 85.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 82.3W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM
$$
NNNN
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Better start gaining latitude very soon if the models are to be right, they do seem to be in very good agreement though unlike they were with Alex.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
Nam won't give it up, keeps trying to bring it nortward. Do yall still need the rain?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
hmmm jb could be right. nam,cmc, and HWRF are showing a landfall north of tampico while the others still say south of there. could go either way.
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
tailgater wrote:Nam won't give it up, keeps trying to bring it nortward. Do yall still need the rain?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
yes please tailgater!
im tired of sweating all day everyday!
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- frederic79
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
Just looked at the latest model graphics at wunderground.com and if these are truly up-to-date, the GFDL, NGFDL and UKMET, for whatever its worth, either keep Karl over water or bring Karl back into the gulf heading NNE over some really warm water. Are these actually the latest?
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- Tstormwatcher
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
frederic79 wrote:Just looked at the latest model graphics at wunderground.com and if these are truly up-to-date, the GFDL, NGFDL and UKMET, for whatever its worth, either keep Karl over water or bring Karl back into the gulf heading NNE over some really warm water. Are these actually the latest?
Do you have a link? I just checked and only the UKMET shows it entering mexico and then turning NE.
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- frederic79
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
I'm using an old Mac but you saw what I saw... it still indicates a second landfall somewhere on the US gulf coast. Just one model, though.
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- Tstormwatcher
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Re: ATL: KARL - Models
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100917 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100917 1800 100918 0600 100918 1800 100919 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 96.4W 19.4N 97.6W 19.8N 99.1W 20.3N 100.6W
BAMD 19.2N 96.4W 19.1N 98.2W 19.0N 100.3W 19.2N 102.6W
BAMM 19.2N 96.4W 19.6N 97.7W 19.8N 99.3W 20.3N 101.2W
LBAR 19.2N 96.4W 19.2N 97.9W 19.5N 99.9W 19.9N 102.2W
SHIP 90KTS 87KTS 88KTS 88KTS
DSHP 90KTS 49KTS 34KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100919 1800 100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 102.5W 22.5N 106.6W 23.3N 110.8W 23.7N 114.8W
BAMD 19.8N 104.8W 21.0N 109.4W 21.4N 113.9W 20.6N 118.6W
BAMM 20.9N 103.2W 22.5N 107.6W 23.2N 111.7W 23.4N 116.0W
LBAR 20.4N 104.4W 21.4N 108.7W 22.5N 112.4W 23.3N 115.9W
SHIP 90KTS 89KTS 84KTS 78KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 96.4W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 93.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 95KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 80NM
WHXX01 KWBC 171831
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100917 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100917 1800 100918 0600 100918 1800 100919 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 96.4W 19.4N 97.6W 19.8N 99.1W 20.3N 100.6W
BAMD 19.2N 96.4W 19.1N 98.2W 19.0N 100.3W 19.2N 102.6W
BAMM 19.2N 96.4W 19.6N 97.7W 19.8N 99.3W 20.3N 101.2W
LBAR 19.2N 96.4W 19.2N 97.9W 19.5N 99.9W 19.9N 102.2W
SHIP 90KTS 87KTS 88KTS 88KTS
DSHP 90KTS 49KTS 34KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100919 1800 100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 102.5W 22.5N 106.6W 23.3N 110.8W 23.7N 114.8W
BAMD 19.8N 104.8W 21.0N 109.4W 21.4N 113.9W 20.6N 118.6W
BAMM 20.9N 103.2W 22.5N 107.6W 23.2N 111.7W 23.4N 116.0W
LBAR 20.4N 104.4W 21.4N 108.7W 22.5N 112.4W 23.3N 115.9W
SHIP 90KTS 89KTS 84KTS 78KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 96.4W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 93.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 95KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 80NM
WHXX01 KWBC 171831
CHGHUR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100917 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100917 1800 100918 0600 100918 1800 100919 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 96.4W 19.4N 97.6W 19.8N 99.1W 20.3N 100.6W
BAMD 19.2N 96.4W 19.1N 98.2W 19.0N 100.3W 19.2N 102.6W
BAMM 19.2N 96.4W 19.6N 97.7W 19.8N 99.3W 20.3N 101.2W
LBAR 19.2N 96.4W 19.2N 97.9W 19.5N 99.9W 19.9N 102.2W
SHIP 90KTS 87KTS 88KTS 88KTS
DSHP 90KTS 49KTS 34KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100919 1800 100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 102.5W 22.5N 106.6W 23.3N 110.8W 23.7N 114.8W
BAMD 19.8N 104.8W 21.0N 109.4W 21.4N 113.9W 20.6N 118.6W
BAMM 20.9N 103.2W 22.5N 107.6W 23.2N 111.7W 23.4N 116.0W
LBAR 20.4N 104.4W 21.4N 108.7W 22.5N 112.4W 23.3N 115.9W
SHIP 90KTS 89KTS 84KTS 78KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 96.4W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 93.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 95KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 80NM
WHXX01 KWBC 171831
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL (AL132010) 20100917 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100917 1800 100918 0600 100918 1800 100919 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.2N 96.4W 19.4N 97.6W 19.8N 99.1W 20.3N 100.6W
BAMD 19.2N 96.4W 19.1N 98.2W 19.0N 100.3W 19.2N 102.6W
BAMM 19.2N 96.4W 19.6N 97.7W 19.8N 99.3W 20.3N 101.2W
LBAR 19.2N 96.4W 19.2N 97.9W 19.5N 99.9W 19.9N 102.2W
SHIP 90KTS 87KTS 88KTS 88KTS
DSHP 90KTS 49KTS 34KTS 29KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100919 1800 100920 1800 100921 1800 100922 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 102.5W 22.5N 106.6W 23.3N 110.8W 23.7N 114.8W
BAMD 19.8N 104.8W 21.0N 109.4W 21.4N 113.9W 20.6N 118.6W
BAMM 20.9N 103.2W 22.5N 107.6W 23.2N 111.7W 23.4N 116.0W
LBAR 20.4N 104.4W 21.4N 108.7W 22.5N 112.4W 23.3N 115.9W
SHIP 90KTS 89KTS 84KTS 78KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 96.4W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.7N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 19.6N LONM24 = 93.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 95KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 80NM
WHXX01 KWBC 171831
CHGHUR
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