Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[South Texas Storms]

does the long range cmc come out at 12 30 am ct on the dot?
idk if i should stay up for it.

[Stormcenter]

I rather be looking at NO storm.

I'm glad it will be late Sept. and not late Aug.
"if" and when this comes around.

uh oh...at hour 300 strengthening just s.e. of texas.

I'd rather be looking at a Texas storm now, 300 hours out, than 72 hours out!

[HouTXmetro]

We are watching storms 300 hours out? LOL, Going to be a lot of frustrated people if this doesn't develop. I have seen it all. Conversely when was the last time a system over Africa has such strong model support and did it come to fruition?

[South Texas Storms]

were just interested in this one because this has the possibility to be a bad hurricane in the gulf in a couple weeks.

[blp]

:uarrow:
agreed blp. that SE ridge doesnt want to budge.

Thank you Tropical Storm Hermine for giving me the most exciting 48 hours of weather in my life so far!

Off topic for minute. I found interesting your signature about Hermine. It brought back memories of my experience with Hurricane Irene a low end CAT 1 in 1999 which was a similar system that strengthened quickly and took everyone down here by surprise. I enjoyed that system but that is probably the upper threshold of what I could enjoy after going through Andrew, Katrina & Wilma. I am glad you enjoyed it but be careful with the stronger systems they can give you more than you bargain for. Sorry back on topic.....

[South Texas Storms]

yeah i know blp its the upper threshold of what i could enjoy too. 60mph wind gust is the most i would like to see. not much damage from it in texas and a lot of rain (which we badly needed) and of course very fun to track!

[Stratosphere747]

There are two different areas. The GFS is developing the energy to the W and is probably to fast. The PREDICT team is looking at the energy developing slower and closer to what the Euro is showing which is the 2nd area that is lagging behind on the GFS runs.

[South Texas Storms]

does anyone know what the long range cmc shows?

[blp]

I think the CMC is picking up another system and not our system. Seems fast....

192hr

[blp]

CMC

216hr


240hr

[blp]

After looking at the short term animation. The CMC is picking up another system coming from the southern Caribbean and not our system as I suspected. Let see if we see it tomorrow.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010091500&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[TwisterFanatic]

Conversely when was the last time a system over Africa has such strong model support and did it come to fruition?

Danielle, Earl, Julia?

[lonelymike]

So to clarify
GFS develops this system into a killer cane over Rock's house
CMC doesn't show it
Euro-?

[jlauderdal]

After looking at the short term animation. The CMC is picking up another system coming from the southern Caribbean and not our system as I suspected. Let see if we see it tomorrow.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010091500&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

i dont know if the cmc will verify but there is still plenty of energy to work with in the carib and gulf, hurricanes jobs are to transfer heat and so far its been a FAIL in those areas so I suspect we will be seeing plenty of action in these areas soon and those troughs will draw it up towards the usa

[ronjon]

06Z GFS continues the development of this system. Our luck on the Gulf Coast may run out.

[cycloneye]

And the timeframe now is less than the lalaland of 300+ hours.

[KWT]

ECM also does show something as well from this area, at 240hrs its strengthening in the WCAR but general pressures are low anyway in the region so even though its at 1004mbs it barely has a closed circulation by 240hrs...

If it develops quickly and strongly enough there is no doubt this one could be a threat, if it takes the Karl route it'll probably follow Karl almost perfectly in terms of track from the looks of things...its one of those situations!

06z GFS is very agressive with this one with a developed system east of the Islands and strengthens much faster in the Caribbean sea then the ECM...

Given Karl, the ECM possibly is the more realistic solution but we will see!

[Vortex]

Nogaps 6 days Barbados heading west



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

6Z HWRF shows up nicely heading west


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Vortex]

The area between 8-10N and 35-40W which shows up nicely on the vis is where the models develop this storm from it appears...



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg