Global model runs discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

0z EURO - birds eye

[BigB0882]

Is the fantasy storm in the Western Gulf moving into Mexico as all others have done this season or is it bucking the trend?

[BigA]

According to today's 12Z GFS, said fantasy storm is landfalling in southwest Florida as a hurricane in 348 hours.

Is the fantasy storm in the Western Gulf moving into Mexico as all others have done this season or is it bucking the trend?

[cycloneye]

And there is more on the pipe.

[ronjon]

RUT..ROH...several runs of the GFS develop this system now in the caribbean.

[hurricaneCW]

The U.S. is still sitting pretty. I actually think there's a reasonable chance that the U.S. evades any major landfall. Either the storms affect Mexico or they are recurve well east of the U.S. The gfs spins up another Cape Verde system after Julia, but that one is recurving into the Julia/Earl weakness. The best chance for a strong U.S. hit will be in October, that's the most likely chance of getting an Opal/Wilma type system in regards to the track. Since this season's track analysis resembles that of 1995, than expect an active late season in the gulf and Caribbean but I'm not so sure about a U.S. landfall right now.

I'm not going to take the Caribbean system in the long range too seriously because the gfs has done this before although now that it'll be late September, the model develops a huge trough that turns the storm northward and then northeastwards into the U.S. instead of Mexico. That's another one of the gfs biases of creating super strong troughs in the long range, especially starting in September or the early fall months.

[BigA]

The U.S. is still sitting pretty. I actually think there's a reasonable chance that the U.S. evades any major landfall. Either the storms affect Mexico or they are recurve well east of the U.S. The gfs spins up another Cape Verde system after Julia, but that one is recurving into the Julia/Earl weakness. The best chance for a strong U.S. hit will be in October, that's the most likely chance of getting an Opal/Wilma type system in regards to the track. Since this season's track analysis resembles that of 1995, than expect an active late season in the gulf and Caribbean but I'm not so sure about a U.S. landfall right now.

I'm not going to take the Caribbean system in the long range too seriously because the gfs has done this before although now that it'll be late September, the model develops a huge trough that turns the storm northward and then northeastwards into the U.S. instead of Mexico. That's another one of the gfs biases of creating super strong troughs in the long range, especially starting in September or the early fall months.

It wouldn't take a huge trough to turn the storm northward into the U.S, just a weakness in the ridge which becomes increasingly likely as September progresses.

[alan1961]

312 cuckoo time...threatens the Texas coast.

[Aquawind]

GFS shows little front activity making it to the coast but, a weakness does allow Godzilla into the GOM in the extended..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Stormcenter]

Wow Oct. 1st.......talk about about a long time.

That is what I call a reach model loop.

Somehow I just don't think this will pan out. IMO

[ROCK]

well ones thing is for sure all the models are keen on developing something and moving it into the carib...

[ROCK]

Wow Oct. 1st.......talk about about a long time.

That is what I call a reach model loop.

Somehow I just don't think this will pan out. IMO

trek wise probably wont pan out.....but this is really the only reliable threat right now to the GOM states...

I have been saying that the 1st 2 weeks of OCT will be more like the the last 2 weeks of Sept....extended season for the GOMers...IMO

[Dean4Storms]

The U.S. is still sitting pretty. I actually think there's a reasonable chance that the U.S. evades any major landfall. Either the storms affect Mexico or they are recurve well east of the U.S. The gfs spins up another Cape Verde system after Julia, but that one is recurving into the Julia/Earl weakness. The best chance for a strong U.S. hit will be in October, that's the most likely chance of getting an Opal/Wilma type system in regards to the track. Since this season's track analysis resembles that of 1995, than expect an active late season in the gulf and Caribbean but I'm not so sure about a U.S. landfall right now.

I'm not going to take the Caribbean system in the long range too seriously because the gfs has done this before although now that it'll be late September, the model develops a huge trough that turns the storm northward and then northeastwards into the U.S. instead of Mexico. That's another one of the gfs biases of creating super strong troughs in the long range, especially starting in September or the early fall months.

I must point out that in your reference to the GFS past biases of developing strong troughs that you are talking about the OLD GFS. The new GFS has not shown too much over doing with troughs.

[StormClouds63]

KFDM said last night that the very end of September is about the only time-frame left for tropical cyclone activity in the western GOM ... so, please no posts yet that the season is over for us. It's looking good so far, but no absolute declarations yet. The scenario shown for October 1 is probably a reach, but let's not jinx ourselves. We may have to wait until about October 10 before it's all clear for upper TX and SW LA.

[Scorpion]

FL hit this run

[Ivanhater]

Just take a look at the long range Canadian from last night. If you can believe it, the MJO is forecast to be even more favorable in the next few weeks. The Canadian picks up on this.

[hurricaneCW]

The U.S. is really gambling its odds, with so many darts being thrown, it's hard to imagine all of them missing the U.S. As of right now, the main focus will be on Karl, Igor, and Julia. It looks like there won't be too much of a lull after those storms are over, maybe a 1-3 days lull and then right back in the saddle.

[Stormcenter]

The "darts" aren't even coming close to the target.
Thank goodness it's just been that
type of season so far and it may just end
up being that way for remainder of the season.
IMO

The U.S. is really gambling its odds, with so many darts being thrown, it's hard to imagine all of them missing the U.S. As of right now, the main focus will be on Karl, Igor, and Julia. It looks like there won't be too much of a lull after those storms are over, maybe a 1-3 days lull and then right back in the saddle.

[hurricaneCW]

The U.S. has had to deal with a lot of hurricanes in the past decade so I agree that it's a great thing that we've been so lucky. The next month or so could still be pretty rough but hopefully we've past the worst of the threats.

[StormClouds63]

Ike (2008) was the last significant landfall as a very exceptional category 2. Have to go back to Wilma in 2005 for a so-called "major" landfalling storm. Five years is likely an unusually high number of consecutive years w/o a U.S. landfall. Don't know what the record is for years between major U.S. landfalls?

The pattern this year has not only missed the U.S., but saved a lot of lives in the Caribbean. Bermuda may not be so lucky with Igor.