ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Aquawind]

I noticed this yesterday as well.. looks like some banding associated with Karl. We would have a monster major if not for the Yukatan..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[KWT]

I suspect Crazy 60-65kts was the range, there was a ship report from what I heard that was as high as 70kts but the NHC didn't go with that report either way.

Impressive system either way, should start to weaken over the Yucatan and probably gain some latitude but how much it gains is going to be key.

Amazing how land firction can tighten up the inner core.

[Sanibel]

Karl has a large moisture envelope like Alex.

[CrazyC83]

SHIP S 1200 21.50 -86.60 187 21 20 69.9

Ship reported 70 kt winds indeed, but it was 187 nautical miles from the center so I would agree such would not be representative or not accurate. That was at 7 am CDT.

[KWT]

Karl has a large moisture envelope like Alex.

Yeah this system is alot like Alex in many ways at the moment, the track is very similar apart from the fact its not expected to move NW but other then that the broad evolution is surprisingly close.

[CrazyC83]

THE CENTER OF KARL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 1245 UTC. BEFORE LANDFALL...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 991 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 50-55
KT. BASED ON THIS...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.
DATA FROM THE RADAR IN BELIZE CITY SHOWED THAT KARL WAS DEVELOPING
AN EYE AT LANDFALL...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OTHER EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST IT REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DEPARTED.

Based on that, I do believe it strengthened right up to landfall. I would go with 60 kt and a pressure of 989mb by extrapolation of the last data. Not conclusive to go any further though.

[littlevince]

Belize radar:

[CrazyC83]

THANK GOD this didn't form 24 hours earlier. If he did, I think we would have had the 5th major of the season.

[dwsqos2]

MMCM 151445Z 27020G36KT 1/2SM +RA OVC001 24/23 A2951 RMK SLP022 5//// 9// 8/7//

Chetumal Obs...Winds From 20 g 36 knots; Pressure 29.51 in.

[HURAKAN]

This weather station near Mahahual registered a gust of 75 mph and a low pressure of 992.5 mb

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... &year=2010

[CrazyC83]

This weather station near Mahahual registered a gust of 75 mph and a low pressure of 992.5 mb

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... &year=2010

Going by the sustained at the time, the pressure is likely around 989mb right now.

[Ad Novoxium]

THANK GOD this didn't form 24 hours earlier. If he did, I think we would have had the 5th major of the season.

Note: This is not a professional forecast and is not to be treated as such.

Actually, given how well-formed it was going into the Yucatan, I get the feeling that if Karl maintains the level of organization he has and stays above depression strength, we might be looking at Major #5 while he's going over the Gulf. Part of me thinks so because its track and time of formation (mid-September) resemble those of Category 2 Hurricane Gert from 1993, and if I'm correct, wasn't Gert, at Belize landfall, weaker than Karl?

[HURAKAN]

Inland but not giving up. I imagine flooding could be severe.

[Sanibel]

Crossing Yucatan quickly.

[FLpanhandle91]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Karl pulls a Humberto and goes through RI in the BOC becoming out 5th major..

[HURAKAN]

Maybe it was a hurricane at landfall.

[FLpanhandle91]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/ATL/13L.KARL/tc_ssmis/91hw/20100915.1231.f16.x.91hw.13LKARL.55kts-991mb-185N-876W.72pc.jpg

Maybe it was a hurricane at landfall.

Dvorak and microwave signature early this morning looked impressive. I would've given it hurricane status with 60 kt winds.

[HURAKAN]

2010SEP15 151500 4.3 983.9/ +1.7 / 72.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 MW ON OFF OFF -75.86 -72.54 UNIFRM N/A 38.20 18.61 88.25 FCST

Combine the microwave image with the Dvorak estimates, and I think we can say that Karl was a hurricane at landfall. I would put the intensity at 65 knots.

[HURAKAN]

That's a microwave image of Cindy, 2005, exactly when the TC Report says it was a hurricane.

[Macrocane]

I think that this season will see a couple of upgrades in the re-analysis, a couple of inevst may have been tropical cyclones, Hermine could have been a hurricane too, and Karl looks very good on the MW.