Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

Stalling in the BOC as a trough is digging

[wxman22]

flip flop flip flop

[Ivanhater]

Heading due north at the end of the run toward the northern Gulf coast..likely shunted NE with the trough picking it up..similar to an Opal set up and track this run

[South Texas Storms]

looks like a texas hit on this run

[KWT]

The 18z is probably a slightly more realistic solution then the Florida solution given what normally happen in La Nina Autumns....but to be hoenst it could easily go either way.

[southerngale]

Good thing it's the 384 hr GFS. heh

[Ivanhater]

looks like a texas hit on this run

Likely Louisiana eastward with the trough picking it up on this run. Just this run though

[South Texas Storms]

oh boy so we have around 2 more weeks of tracking this thing. i think this might be the big caribbean cruiser that a lot of us have been expecting this season.

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like a texas hit on this run

Yep, I have a feeling the models are going to bounce this all over the gulf before all is said and done....Anyone from Mexico to Florida should be paying attention.

[Stratosphere747]

Updated PREDICT and given a designation.

PGI89T: A potential 'future pouch' or area of interest is
currently located near 10N, 38W. An 1139 UTC ASCAT pass
highlights a weak, elongated ground-relative surface circulation
along 10 N between 35-40 W, albeit with some ambiguity relating
to the very light wind speeds in the region (colored vectors in
image 6). This elongated circulation has a bit of a monsoon
trough-like appearance and is located along an east-west axis
where the northwesterly flow around the southwestern periphery
of Hurricane Julia meets south-southwesterly cross-equatorial
flow. Collocated with this elongated circulation are modest
lower tropospheric convergence (blue contours) and lower
tropospheric vorticity (orange contours) as analyzed by the
CIMSS satellite-derived products (image 7). Disorganized
convection (image 6) associated with this feature is found
primarily equatorward of the potential circulation owing to
20-30 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear (yellow contours
and white streamlines in image 6) on the southeastern periphery
of the upper tropospheric anticyclone associated with Hurricane
Igor. This northeasterly vertical wind shear should abate as
Igor recurves and accelerates northward into the middle
latitudes over the coming days.

[Ivanhater]

Can't ignore the consistency of the GFS every run putting the Gulf under the gun every time.

[cycloneye]

Please point out the spot that is forcasted to develop. I am a bit confused, are we talking about the area SE of Igor, or the area SE of Julia?

According to the models, it will be a low latitude system hugging the 10N line. It starts mainly west of 50W sometime next week.

[southerngale]

looks like a texas hit on this run

Yep, I have a feeling the models are going to bounce this all over the gulf before all is said and done....Anyone from Mexico to Florida should be paying attention.

Yeah, way too far out to start pinpointing anything. Rita was a late hit for Texas on Sept.24 - I do tend to start breathing a sigh of relief the later it gets, at least for Texas. And yes, I know, there have been storms hit Texas later than Rita did, but usually, the WGOM shuts down for business by late September.

[abajan]

The suspense is killing me!!!

Killing you? What do think about me? You’re all the way in Texas and I’m here in Barbados wondering if this is going to be Ivan - Part Deux!

[South Texas Storms]

Can't ignore the consistency of the GFS every run putting the Gulf under the gun every time.

yeah some pretty good long range consistency by the gfs over the past few days. its looking more likely every day.

[South Texas Storms]

imo i dont think texas can feel safe about the season shutting down until mid october. i think it might be a late west gom season this year because of la nina and that SE ridge

[KWT]

Can't ignore the consistency of the GFS every run putting the Gulf under the gun every time.

We are getting towards the time of year now where we really need to pay attention to the Caribbean zone, because La Nina's really favour the Caribbean in the latter part of September and October.

[Stratosphere747]

Extended outlook from PREDICT. Highlights the differences between the Euro and GFS. Also notes the favorable conditions for genesis.

PGI89T: Available 0000 UTC model-derived pouch products (image
10 for the GFS, image 11 for the ECMWF) suggest that pouch
genesis will occur between F060 (GFS; 1200 UTC Fri 17 Sep) and
F072 (ECMWF; 0000 UTC Sat 18 Sep). The forecasted pouch is
located about 4 deg lon further to the east in the GFS (~38 W)
as compared to the ECMWF (~42 W) at F072, suggesting some
uncertainty in where the models expect the pouch to develop
along the aforementioned monsoonal trough-like feature. Better
model position agreement is noted in the F084-F108 time frame,
however, owing to a faster westward progression of the
forecasted pouch within the GFS (Cp = -8.2 m/s) as compared to
the ECMWF (Cp = -6.2 m/s). The potential disturbance should
follow a general west to west-northwest track over the coming
days with the models suggesting that it should cross 11 N, 45 W
between F084-F096 (mid-to-late Sat 18 Sep) and 12 N, 50 W by
F108 (1200 UTC Sun 19 Sep) (image 9). Both models agree on the
disturbance being located within a low shear, high SST, high
moisture content environment favorable for tropical cyclogenesis
over the next 5-7 days. These factors all suggest that this
potential disturbance/pouch may be a viable flight target for
PREDICT beginning sometime this weekend.

[cycloneye]

The suspense is killing me!!!

Killing you? What do think about me? You’re all the way in Texas and I’m here in Barbados wondering if this is going to be Ivan - Part Deux!

I hear you abajan. Not only there but all of us who live in the islands may have to pay close attention to what may occur next week.That San Juan discussion opens eyebrows.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

THE TROPICS ARE VERY ACTIVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE EAST
CNTRL ATLC SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVR THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SVRL AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE
EVIDENT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 45W TO THE W AFRICAN COASTLINE ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF 10N. OP AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL TC DEVELOPMENT WITH ONE DISTURBANCE NEAR 45W AND
ANOTHER ONE EAST OF 20W. GFS AND SVRL GFES MEMBERS ARE VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DISTURBANCE INDICATING A TC MOVING SOUTH OF PR
AROUND THE 23RD. GFES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIG TIMING
DIFFERENCES BUT SOME SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT. IT IS
SEPT AND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC LOOK VERY FAVORABLE SO AM
EXPECTING SOMETHING TO DEVELOP. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO HAD A SLOW
BIAS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR SO ANTICIPATING WEATHER
ASSOCIATED TO THESE DISTURBANCES A DAY OR TWO THAN EARLIER
SUGGESTED BY MODELS. IN SUMMARY...SIG AMT UNCERTAINTY SEEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING BUT ANTICIPATING A WETTER
AND MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LIKE THE AEW
NEAR THE AFRICAN COASTLINE BUT THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST EIGHT DAYS
FROM REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IF IT WERE TO REACH THIS FAR
WEST.

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday, September 15, 2010 615 am EDT/515 am CDT

Are Lisa and Matthew In Our Future Next Week??:
It looks like there will be little rest between storms over at least the next 2 to 3 weeks as model guidance forecast the development of Lisa and perhaps Matthew over the next couple of weeks. The GFS model continues to insist that a piece of energy will break off from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and potentially develop as it nears the Windward Islands early next week. The GFS model goes on to significantly develop this system (Lisa??) in the central and western Caribbean late next week. At the same time, the GFS model also forecasts another system to develop in the far eastern Atlantic (Matthew??) but the GFS model curves this system out into the open Atlantic.

The GFS model is starting to get support on the Caribbean storm idea from the European, Canadian and NOGAPS models; although, as should be expected, they differ on the details with the European model holding off on development until it reaches the western Caribbean 10 days from now and developing the eastern Atlantic system first. The Canadian model also forecasts the eastern Atlantic system to develop first, but splits the western Caribbean system into two separate storms, which seems very unlikely, however, it does forecast development to start occurring during the middle part of next week.

Synoptically it seems realistic that we should have a tropical cyclone form in the Caribbean next week. A Kelvin wave now located over the eastern Pacific should track eastward across northern South America and then into the tropical Atlantic by this weekend. This looks to aid in enhancing convection along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in an area just east of the Lesser Antilles. At the same time, the Kelvin Wave will also enhance vorticity in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa and should help to spinup at least a couple of more storms over the next 7 days or so.

So, interests in the Lesser Antilles and especially the entire Caribbean should monitor this situation closely as we may have a “Caribbean Cruiser” to deal with next week.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Thursday morning.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.