Caribbean - Central America Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WNW OR NW
OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS PASSING ABOUT 500 MI TO THE NE OF PR FRI
MORNING. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC
WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE XPCD TO BUILD WWD AGAIN NEXT WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF IGOR AND JULIA. A WEAK BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS S
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA NOW UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED TO
DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SAT WITH VERY LIMITED SHRA ACTIVITY XPCD THROUGH THEN AS
IGOR KEEPS ON A NW TRACK PASSING WELL NE OF THE AREA FRI MORNING.
OTHER THAN AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN...IMPACTS
FROM IGOR WILL BE FROM LARGE SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THE TROPICS ARE VERY ACTIVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE EAST
CNTRL ATLC SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVR THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SVRL AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE
EVIDENT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 45W TO THE W AFRICAN COASTLINE ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF 10N. OP AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL TC DEVELOPMENT WITH ONE DISTURBANCE NEAR 45W AND
ANOTHER ONE EAST OF 20W. GFS AND SVRL GFES MEMBERS ARE VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DISTURBANCE INDICATING A TC MOVING SOUTH OF PR
AROUND THE 23RD. GFES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIG TIMING
DIFFERENCES BUT SOME SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT. IT IS
SEPT AND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC LOOK VERY FAVORABLE SO AM
EXPECTING SOMETHING TO DEVELOP. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO HAD A SLOW
BIAS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR SO ANTICIPATING WEATHER
ASSOCIATED TO THESE DISTURBANCES A DAY OR TWO THAN EARLIER
SUGGESTED BY MODELS. IN SUMMARY...SIG AMT UNCERTAINTY SEEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING BUT ANTICIPATING A WETTER
AND MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LIKE THE AEW
NEAR THE AFRICAN COASTLINE BUT THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST EIGHT DAYS
FROM REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IF IT WERE TO REACH THIS FAR
WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH JUST SHIFTING WINDS
AS IGOR PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...12Z RUN OF THE NAH MODEL WHICH USES GFDL WINDS HAS COME DOWN
THIS CYCLE WITH SIG WAVE HEIGHTS NOW PEAKING AT 11 FEET FRI
EVENING INSTEAD OF THE 14 FEET FCST EARLIER. TAFB GUIDANCE AND WNA
MODEL INDICATE SEAS PEAKING BETWEEN 12-14 FT. WILL MAINTAIN THE
11 FT SEAS ACROSS AMZ710 FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED LATER. SWELLS WILL PEAK AROUND 11 FEET AT 13 SECS FROM
THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE ATLC
COASTLINE LATE THU OR EARLY FRI WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT.
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expat2carib
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Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
Sea is getting rougher. Wind is blowing. Fishermen removing their boats from the beach to the higher streets here in Dominica.
Lovely breeze. I love it.
Lovely breeze. I love it.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
From Crown Weather
Tropical Weather Discussion
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Issued: Wednesday, September 15, 2010 615 am EDT/515 am CDT
Would you like these tropical weather discussions, including unscheduled updates on any tropical storms or hurricanes that are out there, e-mailed to you? If so, just send an e-mail to: crownweatherservices-subscribe@yahoogroups.com and you will be added to our mailing list.
For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.
Hurricane Igor:
For Information About Hurricane Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068 .
After making a run at Category 5 strength overnight, Igor has weakened a bit early this morning. Satellite estimates indicate that maximum winds have decreased from 155 mph to 145 mph. Igor remains in a favorable environment and fluctuations in strength are likely over the next 24 to 36 hours. After Thursday night, southerly wind shear is forecast to increase causing a gradual weakening of the hurricane, however, Bermuda stands to be potentially impacted by a Category 3 hurricane on Sunday.
Igor is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 10 mph this morning and a track between west-northwest and northwest is forecast over the next couple of days. After Friday, a turn to the north-northwest and then due north is anticipated this weekend as Igor tracks along the western side of the central Atlantic high pressure ridge and moves right into a weakness in this ridge.
Based on the latest guidance, the island of Bermuda may be significantly impacted by Igor during the day Sunday. As of this morning, it appears that tropical storm force winds will begin affecting the island around dawn Sunday morning with hurricane conditions possible during much of Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening before things slowly subside during Sunday night. All interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Igor. It should be noted that Igor poses no direct threat to the US East Coast, however, high surf and rip tides are likely this weekend into early next week thanks to Igor.
Tropical Storm Karl:
For Information About Tropical Storm Karl with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3186.
Karl is strengthening this morning and reconnaissance aircraft have found a central pressure of 995 millibars and maximum winds of 65 mph. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next few hours before Karl tracks inland over the Yucatan Peninsula by late this morning.
Karl is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph. Karl is forecast to track west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula from late this morning through the first half of tonight before emerging into the Bay of Campeche later tonight. After that, a continued west-northwest track is forecast during Thursday and Thursday night. On Friday into Saturday, a ridge of high pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico should force Karl to turn due west or perhaps even west-southwest with a second landfall expected near Tampico, Mexico very late Friday night or early Saturday morning. It should be noted that environmental conditions will be favorable over the Bay of Campeche and steady strengthening is likely and I do think Karl will come ashore onto the Mexican coast as a mid to upper end Category 1 hurricane.
Are Lisa and Matthew In Our Future Next Week??:
It looks like there will be little rest between storms over at least the next 2 to 3 weeks as model guidance forecast the development of Lisa and perhaps Matthew over the next couple of weeks. The GFS model continues to insist that a piece of energy will break off from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and potentially develop as it nears the Windward Islands early next week. The GFS model goes on to significantly develop this system (Lisa??) in the central and western Caribbean late next week. At the same time, the GFS model also forecasts another system to develop in the far eastern Atlantic (Matthew??) but the GFS model curves this system out into the open Atlantic.
The GFS model is starting to get support on the Caribbean storm idea from the European, Canadian and NOGAPS models; although, as should be expected, they differ on the details with the European model holding off on development until it reaches the western Caribbean 10 days from now and developing the eastern Atlantic system first. The Canadian model also forecasts the eastern Atlantic system to develop first, but splits the western Caribbean system into two separate storms, which seems very unlikely, however, it does forecast development to start occurring during the middle part of next week.
Synoptically it seems realistic that we should have a tropical cyclone form in the Caribbean next week. A Kelvin wave now located over the eastern Pacific should track eastward across northern South America and then into the tropical Atlantic by this weekend. This looks to aid in enhancing convection along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in an area just east of the Lesser Antilles. At the same time, the Kelvin Wave will also enhance vorticity in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa and should help to spinup at least a couple of more storms over the next 7 days or so.
So, interests in the Lesser Antilles and especially the entire Caribbean should monitor this situation closely as we may have a “Caribbean Cruiser” to deal with next week.
Looking Ahead: October Also Looks Very Busy For Tropical Activity:
Things look like they won’t slow down any during the month of October, however, the threat to the United States coastline may increase dramatically. The reason why is because activity in the Atlantic will shift to the west during October with activity likely in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico much like 1995 (Opal), 1998 (Mitch) and 2005 (Wilma). I have a very real fear that we will not end this season without a major hurricane landfall on the United States coastline. So, unfortunately, activity looks to remain active for the next 4 to 6 weeks.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Thursday morning.
Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.
Tropical Weather Discussion
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325Issued: Wednesday, September 15, 2010 615 am EDT/515 am CDT
Would you like these tropical weather discussions, including unscheduled updates on any tropical storms or hurricanes that are out there, e-mailed to you? If so, just send an e-mail to: crownweatherservices-subscribe@yahoogroups.com and you will be added to our mailing list.
For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.
Hurricane Igor:
For Information About Hurricane Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068 .
After making a run at Category 5 strength overnight, Igor has weakened a bit early this morning. Satellite estimates indicate that maximum winds have decreased from 155 mph to 145 mph. Igor remains in a favorable environment and fluctuations in strength are likely over the next 24 to 36 hours. After Thursday night, southerly wind shear is forecast to increase causing a gradual weakening of the hurricane, however, Bermuda stands to be potentially impacted by a Category 3 hurricane on Sunday.
Igor is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 10 mph this morning and a track between west-northwest and northwest is forecast over the next couple of days. After Friday, a turn to the north-northwest and then due north is anticipated this weekend as Igor tracks along the western side of the central Atlantic high pressure ridge and moves right into a weakness in this ridge.
Based on the latest guidance, the island of Bermuda may be significantly impacted by Igor during the day Sunday. As of this morning, it appears that tropical storm force winds will begin affecting the island around dawn Sunday morning with hurricane conditions possible during much of Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening before things slowly subside during Sunday night. All interests in Bermuda should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Igor. It should be noted that Igor poses no direct threat to the US East Coast, however, high surf and rip tides are likely this weekend into early next week thanks to Igor.
Tropical Storm Karl:
For Information About Tropical Storm Karl with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3186.
Karl is strengthening this morning and reconnaissance aircraft have found a central pressure of 995 millibars and maximum winds of 65 mph. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next few hours before Karl tracks inland over the Yucatan Peninsula by late this morning.
Karl is tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph. Karl is forecast to track west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula from late this morning through the first half of tonight before emerging into the Bay of Campeche later tonight. After that, a continued west-northwest track is forecast during Thursday and Thursday night. On Friday into Saturday, a ridge of high pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico should force Karl to turn due west or perhaps even west-southwest with a second landfall expected near Tampico, Mexico very late Friday night or early Saturday morning. It should be noted that environmental conditions will be favorable over the Bay of Campeche and steady strengthening is likely and I do think Karl will come ashore onto the Mexican coast as a mid to upper end Category 1 hurricane.
Are Lisa and Matthew In Our Future Next Week??:
It looks like there will be little rest between storms over at least the next 2 to 3 weeks as model guidance forecast the development of Lisa and perhaps Matthew over the next couple of weeks. The GFS model continues to insist that a piece of energy will break off from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and potentially develop as it nears the Windward Islands early next week. The GFS model goes on to significantly develop this system (Lisa??) in the central and western Caribbean late next week. At the same time, the GFS model also forecasts another system to develop in the far eastern Atlantic (Matthew??) but the GFS model curves this system out into the open Atlantic.
The GFS model is starting to get support on the Caribbean storm idea from the European, Canadian and NOGAPS models; although, as should be expected, they differ on the details with the European model holding off on development until it reaches the western Caribbean 10 days from now and developing the eastern Atlantic system first. The Canadian model also forecasts the eastern Atlantic system to develop first, but splits the western Caribbean system into two separate storms, which seems very unlikely, however, it does forecast development to start occurring during the middle part of next week.
Synoptically it seems realistic that we should have a tropical cyclone form in the Caribbean next week. A Kelvin wave now located over the eastern Pacific should track eastward across northern South America and then into the tropical Atlantic by this weekend. This looks to aid in enhancing convection along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in an area just east of the Lesser Antilles. At the same time, the Kelvin Wave will also enhance vorticity in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa and should help to spinup at least a couple of more storms over the next 7 days or so.
So, interests in the Lesser Antilles and especially the entire Caribbean should monitor this situation closely as we may have a “Caribbean Cruiser” to deal with next week.
Looking Ahead: October Also Looks Very Busy For Tropical Activity:
Things look like they won’t slow down any during the month of October, however, the threat to the United States coastline may increase dramatically. The reason why is because activity in the Atlantic will shift to the west during October with activity likely in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico much like 1995 (Opal), 1998 (Mitch) and 2005 (Wilma). I have a very real fear that we will not end this season without a major hurricane landfall on the United States coastline. So, unfortunately, activity looks to remain active for the next 4 to 6 weeks.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Thursday morning.
Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
expat2carib wrote:Sea is getting rougher. Wind is blowing. Fishermen removing their boats from the beach to the higher streets here in Dominica.
Lovely breeze. I love it.
Glad to have this info. In their latest weather advisory, Meteo-France Guadeloupe has reported waves already reaching 3m70 near the northern tip of the island "La Grande Vigie" at Anse-Bertrand. They also expect waves to reach 4m50 tommorow or Friday and with high waves up to 6 meters in Guadeloupe
and even more near the Northern Leewards (7 meters ). Stay tuned, I will keep your informed as usual and as possible.Link for those who are interrested, unhopefully i have not the link to have the translation. But Abajan, has this link, if he can share it i will be glad for you all! http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene
Gustywind
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tropicana
- Category 5
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- Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2003 6:48 pm
- Location: Niagara Falls, Ontario, Canada
- Contact:
Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
Regional Highs and Rainfall
Wed Sep 15 2010
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 34.7C 95F 9.6mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 32.5C 91F
Crown Point, Tobago 33.7C 93F
Point Salines, Grenada 31.4C 88F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.2C 90F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 32.4C 90F
Rockley, S Barbados 31.8C 89F
Hewannora St Lucia 32.1C 90F
Canefield Airport, Dominica 32.0C 90F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.9C 91F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.2C 90F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.2C 88F
VC Bird, Antigua 31.2C 88F 3.1mm
Juliana Airport, St Maarten 31.8C 89F
St Thomas, VI 32.2C 90F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F 6.6mm
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.8C 89F 7.6mm
Kingston, Jamaica 32.7C 91F 1.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 34.2C 94F
Havana, Cuba 32.4C 90F 0.8mm
Nassau, Bahamas 31.4C 88F 2.7mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 28.6C 84F 2.0mm
Hato Airport, Curacao 32.7C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 32.6C 91F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 33.6C 93F
Cayenne, French Guiana 33.5C 93F
Belize City, Belize 29.6C 85F 36.7mm
IN MEXICO
Chetumal, E. Yucatan 28.3C 83F 176.5mm
Acapulco, MX 35.3C 95F 0.1mm
Campeche, MX 32.7C 91F 2.4mm
-justin-
Wed Sep 15 2010
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 34.7C 95F 9.6mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 32.5C 91F
Crown Point, Tobago 33.7C 93F
Point Salines, Grenada 31.4C 88F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.2C 90F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 32.4C 90F
Rockley, S Barbados 31.8C 89F
Hewannora St Lucia 32.1C 90F
Canefield Airport, Dominica 32.0C 90F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.9C 91F
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 32.2C 90F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 31.2C 88F
VC Bird, Antigua 31.2C 88F 3.1mm
Juliana Airport, St Maarten 31.8C 89F
St Thomas, VI 32.2C 90F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F 6.6mm
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.8C 89F 7.6mm
Kingston, Jamaica 32.7C 91F 1.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 34.2C 94F
Havana, Cuba 32.4C 90F 0.8mm
Nassau, Bahamas 31.4C 88F 2.7mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 28.6C 84F 2.0mm
Hato Airport, Curacao 32.7C 91F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 32.6C 91F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 33.6C 93F
Cayenne, French Guiana 33.5C 93F
Belize City, Belize 29.6C 85F 36.7mm
IN MEXICO
Chetumal, E. Yucatan 28.3C 83F 176.5mm
Acapulco, MX 35.3C 95F 0.1mm
Campeche, MX 32.7C 91F 2.4mm
-justin-
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expat2carib
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 458
- Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:44 pm
- Location: Sint Maarten
Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
Gustywind wrote:expat2carib wrote:Sea is getting rougher. Wind is blowing. Fishermen removing their boats from the beach to the higher streets here in Dominica.
Lovely breeze. I love it.
Glad to have this info. In their latest weather advisory, Meteo-France Guadeloupe has reported waves already reaching 3m70 near the northern tip of the island "La Grande Vigie" at Anse-Bertrand. They also expect waves to reach 4m50 tommorow or Friday and with high waves up to 6 meters in Guadeloupe
Link for those who are interrested, unhopefully i have not the link to have the translation. But Abajan, has this link, if he can share it i will be glad for you all! http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene
Gustywind
Hi Gusty,
Sea is getting "wild" here as well. Wind disappeared. And I was really enjoying the breeze
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
expat2carib wrote:Gustywind wrote:expat2carib wrote:Sea is getting rougher. Wind is blowing. Fishermen removing their boats from the beach to the higher streets here in Dominica.
Lovely breeze. I love it.
Glad to have this info. In their latest weather advisory, Meteo-France Guadeloupe has reported waves already reaching 3m70 near the northern tip of the island "La Grande Vigie" at Anse-Bertrand. They also expect waves to reach 4m50 tommorow or Friday and with high waves up to 6 meters in Guadeloupe
Link for those who are interrested, unhopefully i have not the link to have the translation. But Abajan, has this link, if he can share it i will be glad for you all! http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene
Gustywind
Hi Gusty,
Sea is getting "wild" here as well. Wind disappeared. And I was really enjoying the breeze
Oh yeah?
Be vigilant Expat2Carib. Are you on a boat when you provide us all these nice infos? That's always a pleasure to have in live these infos my friend! Please continue to provide us the best from where you are .
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bvigal
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- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
Good morning, Neighbors!! Thanks for the sea reports, and keep 'em coming! Atlantic seas here this morning looking very 'lumpy' confused in mixed N-NE swell, up about 1.5-2ft from yesterday, but can tell they are rising now.
Igor is a monster, look at the wind radii! Just look how many islands would fit within the hurricane force wind circle! I'm very concerned for Bermuda, but we should all be SO THANKFUL this missed us!!
Igor is a monster, look at the wind radii! Just look how many islands would fit within the hurricane force wind circle!
I'm very concerned for Bermuda, but we should all be SO THANKFUL this missed us!!
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Gustywind
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
bvigal wrote:Good morning, Neighbors!! Thanks for the sea reports, and keep 'em coming! Atlantic seas here this morning looking very 'lumpy' confused in mixed N-NE swell, up about 1.5-2ft from yesterday, but can tell they are rising now.
Igor is a monster, look at the wind radii! Just look how many islands would fit within the hurricane force wind circle!
AMAZING
Oh for Bermuda that's another story 
let's pray for them.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160914
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND
HURRICANE IGOR OVER...AND THEN JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS THE SATURDAY AFTER NEXT.
AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH FROM IGOR WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD FROM
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY UNTIL ITS AXIS IS OVER PUERTO RICO ON
MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTH...A WEAK LOW MAY APPEAR IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NEXT.
AT LOWER LEVELS...MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR IS ABOUT 480 NM EAST
NORTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS PASSING AROUND 400 NM OF SAN JUAN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLED UP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK LOW MAY APPEAR IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NEXT...PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IN A REVERSAL FROM ITS LATEST TRACK RECORD...THE NAM
HAS IDENTIFIED AND CAPTURED ACTIVITY FROM A WEAK AND NARROW BAND
ROTATING AROUND HURRICANE IGOR AND SHOWS IT PASSING THROUGH THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE VISIBLE ON RADAR FROM THIS BAND AT THE MOMENT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY WEAKEN IN THE SEA BREEZE ZONE OF THE NORTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH IT MAY
AFFECT THE ENTIRE ISLAND. MOISTURE FROM OTHER BANDS FROM THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT OVER THE ISLAND AND BRING
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COAST.
TOMORROW...FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT THE SURFACE AND
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER THE ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY BEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SAN JUAN IN THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A LITTLE DRIER THAN THE ECMWF...PARTLY
BECAUSE IT HOLDS FLOW FROM IGOR OVER THE AREA LONGER AND THEN
DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH
OF US TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS SEVERAL TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THAT BRING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY TROPICAL
STORMS HAVE HAD IN THE CARIBBEAN OF LATE...AM LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND FAVOR MORE EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN OVER LAST
WEEKEND AND CANNOT RULE IT OUT. EITHER WAY EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SMALL
STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND THE USVI
TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE PSBL AS THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE IGOR AFFECT THE
FLIGHT AREA ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK. VCSH AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST AND TISX. LLVL WINDS FLOW WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS SWELL FROM IGOR INVADE THE AREA. SEAS PEAKED AT
12.5 FEET EARLIER THIS MORNING AT BUOY 41043 AND MAY YET GO
HIGHER. SEAS HAVE NOT YET RISEN IN THE INNER ATLANTIC WATERS SINCE
WINDS FROM IGOR ARE NOT QUITE POINTED THIS WAY YET. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE ISLANDS
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE IT YET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 30 30 30 10
STT 90 81 90 82 / 40 30 30 10
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA...AMZ710-712-715-725-732-741.
VI...SCA...AMZ710-715-722-725-732.
&&
$$
11/12
FXCA62 TJSJ 160914
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND
HURRICANE IGOR OVER...AND THEN JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS THE SATURDAY AFTER NEXT.
AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH FROM IGOR WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD FROM
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY UNTIL ITS AXIS IS OVER PUERTO RICO ON
MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE NORTH...A WEAK LOW MAY APPEAR IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NEXT.
AT LOWER LEVELS...MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR IS ABOUT 480 NM EAST
NORTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS PASSING AROUND 400 NM OF SAN JUAN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLED UP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK LOW MAY APPEAR IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NEXT...PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IN A REVERSAL FROM ITS LATEST TRACK RECORD...THE NAM
HAS IDENTIFIED AND CAPTURED ACTIVITY FROM A WEAK AND NARROW BAND
ROTATING AROUND HURRICANE IGOR AND SHOWS IT PASSING THROUGH THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE VISIBLE ON RADAR FROM THIS BAND AT THE MOMENT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...BUT MAY WEAKEN IN THE SEA BREEZE ZONE OF THE NORTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH IT MAY
AFFECT THE ENTIRE ISLAND. MOISTURE FROM OTHER BANDS FROM THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT OVER THE ISLAND AND BRING
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COAST.
TOMORROW...FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT THE SURFACE AND
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN OVER THE ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY BEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SAN JUAN IN THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A LITTLE DRIER THAN THE ECMWF...PARTLY
BECAUSE IT HOLDS FLOW FROM IGOR OVER THE AREA LONGER AND THEN
DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH
OF US TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS SEVERAL TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THAT BRING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY TROPICAL
STORMS HAVE HAD IN THE CARIBBEAN OF LATE...AM LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND FAVOR MORE EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT THE GFS SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN OVER LAST
WEEKEND AND CANNOT RULE IT OUT. EITHER WAY EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SMALL
STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND THE USVI
TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE PSBL AS THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE IGOR AFFECT THE
FLIGHT AREA ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK. VCSH AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST AND TISX. LLVL WINDS FLOW WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL RISE QUICKLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS SWELL FROM IGOR INVADE THE AREA. SEAS PEAKED AT
12.5 FEET EARLIER THIS MORNING AT BUOY 41043 AND MAY YET GO
HIGHER. SEAS HAVE NOT YET RISEN IN THE INNER ATLANTIC WATERS SINCE
WINDS FROM IGOR ARE NOT QUITE POINTED THIS WAY YET. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE ISLANDS
FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE IT YET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 30 30 30 10
STT 90 81 90 82 / 40 30 30 10
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA...AMZ710-712-715-725-732-741.
VI...SCA...AMZ710-715-722-725-732.
&&
$$
11/12
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expat2carib
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Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
Gustywind wrote:Oh yeah?
Morning Gusty and all.
No, My boat is on St. Lucia and I will be on it from next week on. Right when pouch PG189T could pay us a visit.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109410&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=200
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Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
good morning everyone
we are getting high waves around the island from igor's passing
we are getting high waves around the island from igor's passing
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Too many hurricanes to remember
News Report post TS Karl in Belize incl Chetumal across the border from Channel 7 news last night
Karl Cometh, (and Goeth) Without Much Fuss
Wed, September 15, 2010
The center of Tropical Storm Karl made landfall 30 miles north of Chetumal this morning after 8:00 am. No major damage was reported in Chetumal - or along the coast of Quintana Roo - which is to say Sam's Club is safe and open for business.
But with winds of 65 miles per hour, the storm did do some damage. Our storm chaser Monica Bodden has been in northern Belize and southern Mexico since morning to see what Karl did. Here's her report.
Monica Bodden, Reporting
Tropical Storm Karl made landfall at 7:45 this morning - about 30 miles east - northeast of Chetumal Mexico. Skies were grey in Corozal Town - when we arrived this morning. Seas where choppy as the winds picked up the atmosphere was indeed gloomy 16:50…. As residents of the Town locked up inside their homes.
All Waiting to see what tropical Storm Karl will bring to our surprise things cleared up a little before 10 o'clock this morning as the rains ceased - the skies cleared up and the winds began to calm down.
We caught up with Mayor of Corozal Town who told us what happened as Tropical Storm Karl brushed Corozal.
Hilberto Campos - Mayor of Corozal Town
"First of all we are very grateful to the good Lord that it hasn't been worse and the storm was being monitored from yesterday from about 2 pm. The NEMO had gathered and we had been looking out for the storm. No life threatening, everything has been restored back in Corozal Town with the exception of the fallen trees as you can see so that's going to be the responsibility for the Corozal Town Council to come and clean up. But we are very glad that it didn't really escalate to any worse proportions."
According to Campus - there hasn't been any major flooding in the Corozal District.
Hilberto Campos - Mayor of Corozal Town
"Not major flooding. There were about 4 different families housed in Sarteneja that were kind of flooded but they refused to leave their homes and they remained there and we are still monitoring the situation whether or not the water will rise and as you can see in Corozal it has already stopped raining. Like I said the only problem now that we have in town is the cleaning up of the town with the fallen trees."
This morning about 11 o'clock there was a small mishap at the Pueblo Veijo Ferry.
Hilberto Campos - Mayor of Corozal Town "We had a situation at the ferry in which the water receded too quickly and the banks of the river were dry and the ferry got stuck with a bus. It only lasted for a couple of hours, we solved the matter and we were glad that it really didn't go worse."
We further made our way to the Corozal Free Zone were workers were sent home. The entire Free Zone was closed for business and no one was allowed to enter.
With maximum sustained winds of up to 65 miles per hour - Tropical Storm Karl did create some damage in Chetumal Mexico. We made our way across the border and this was what we saw.
Debris were still lying on the streets of Chetumal trees were rooted up and the streets were flooded, when we got to this pier- fishermen were trying to pull out 6 sunken skiffs from the sea.
The boats were dock were docked at the pier in hopes to weather the storm - as you can see that didn't quite happen. The roof of certain structures were completely destroyed. This billboard couldn't survive the winds.
Cleaning up for the City started early as workers tried moving the fallen trees. This one huge tree is a testament of how strong the winds were gusting. As we patrolled the seaside in water as deep as our knees - all we saw was a lot of fallen trees. And instead of mini taxi's this morning - the locals got around on foot as the entire seaside area was blocked off my police officers.
I'd post link but not sure if its ok to do this.
Karl Cometh, (and Goeth) Without Much Fuss
Wed, September 15, 2010
The center of Tropical Storm Karl made landfall 30 miles north of Chetumal this morning after 8:00 am. No major damage was reported in Chetumal - or along the coast of Quintana Roo - which is to say Sam's Club is safe and open for business.
But with winds of 65 miles per hour, the storm did do some damage. Our storm chaser Monica Bodden has been in northern Belize and southern Mexico since morning to see what Karl did. Here's her report.
Monica Bodden, Reporting
Tropical Storm Karl made landfall at 7:45 this morning - about 30 miles east - northeast of Chetumal Mexico. Skies were grey in Corozal Town - when we arrived this morning. Seas where choppy as the winds picked up the atmosphere was indeed gloomy 16:50…. As residents of the Town locked up inside their homes.
All Waiting to see what tropical Storm Karl will bring to our surprise things cleared up a little before 10 o'clock this morning as the rains ceased - the skies cleared up and the winds began to calm down.
We caught up with Mayor of Corozal Town who told us what happened as Tropical Storm Karl brushed Corozal.
Hilberto Campos - Mayor of Corozal Town
"First of all we are very grateful to the good Lord that it hasn't been worse and the storm was being monitored from yesterday from about 2 pm. The NEMO had gathered and we had been looking out for the storm. No life threatening, everything has been restored back in Corozal Town with the exception of the fallen trees as you can see so that's going to be the responsibility for the Corozal Town Council to come and clean up. But we are very glad that it didn't really escalate to any worse proportions."
According to Campus - there hasn't been any major flooding in the Corozal District.
Hilberto Campos - Mayor of Corozal Town
"Not major flooding. There were about 4 different families housed in Sarteneja that were kind of flooded but they refused to leave their homes and they remained there and we are still monitoring the situation whether or not the water will rise and as you can see in Corozal it has already stopped raining. Like I said the only problem now that we have in town is the cleaning up of the town with the fallen trees."
This morning about 11 o'clock there was a small mishap at the Pueblo Veijo Ferry.
Hilberto Campos - Mayor of Corozal Town "We had a situation at the ferry in which the water receded too quickly and the banks of the river were dry and the ferry got stuck with a bus. It only lasted for a couple of hours, we solved the matter and we were glad that it really didn't go worse."
We further made our way to the Corozal Free Zone were workers were sent home. The entire Free Zone was closed for business and no one was allowed to enter.
With maximum sustained winds of up to 65 miles per hour - Tropical Storm Karl did create some damage in Chetumal Mexico. We made our way across the border and this was what we saw.
Debris were still lying on the streets of Chetumal trees were rooted up and the streets were flooded, when we got to this pier- fishermen were trying to pull out 6 sunken skiffs from the sea.
The boats were dock were docked at the pier in hopes to weather the storm - as you can see that didn't quite happen. The roof of certain structures were completely destroyed. This billboard couldn't survive the winds.
Cleaning up for the City started early as workers tried moving the fallen trees. This one huge tree is a testament of how strong the winds were gusting. As we patrolled the seaside in water as deep as our knees - all we saw was a lot of fallen trees. And instead of mini taxi's this morning - the locals got around on foot as the entire seaside area was blocked off my police officers.
I'd post link but not sure if its ok to do this.
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bvigal
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Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
Wow! Great pic, Barbara!! Thanks for posting that. Is it looking E or N?
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bvigal
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Re: Caribbean - Central America (Watching Igor / TS Karl
Good morning, BZSTORM 
Thanks for the report! Yes, it is actually preferred that you post the link where the information is found.
Thanks for the report! Yes, it is actually preferred that you post the link where the information is found.
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