Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

If your post has been deleted by staff for useless posts such as "lol"; do not repost it.

[hurricaneCW]

The situation is almost identical to Karl right now except that once it gets into Western Caribbean, there's a much greater chance than with Karl of it getting pulled further north. The high will be weaker, there will be stronger troughs digging further south. Climatology would suggest that a system developing in the Caribbean in late September is likely to get into the gulf than plow into Mexico. I actually think Texas and maybe SW Lousiana has the biggest threat of being impacted as far as the U.S. impacts go.

But first, we'll have to see if it develops. Less sinking air will aid in development as well as climatology with the La Nina pattern, so there's a good chance we'll be dealing with Lisa or Matthew in the Caribbean in a week or so.

[chrisjslucia]

The suspense is killing me!!!

Killing you? What do think about me? You’re all the way in Texas and I’m here in Barbados wondering if this is going to be Ivan - Part Deux!

Oh boy, thanks Abajan. That made me laugh out loud - just what I needed! All this suspense needed suspending! Add to that my confusion as to whether I should be looking to the African coast, the Eastern Atlantic or (after Rob of Crown Weather's comments) South or West. Are all of these supposed to be tracking to the Windwards en route to any eventual point in the USA?!?

[KWT]

Good post HCW and I agree...there is a better chance of maybe a Lili type evolution this time round then the classic La Nina set-up. The ECM still isn't too keen so I'd like to get on board before getting too interested in this but it does seem likely that at some point we will have something else in the Caribbean next week...

[Ivanhater]

The Euro has missed quite a few systems as far as long range development. The most important aspect about the Euro is it shows the system quite well on the vorticity map.

Also, the Canadian ensembles are screaming for a pretty strong system in the NW Caribbean in the long range which is very telling. HWRF loves it, even in the outer grid.

All this shows the GFS is not just popping up a phantom storm.

[cycloneye]

The Euro has missed quite a few systems as far as long range development. The most important aspect about the Euro is it shows the system quite well on the vorticity map.

Also, the Canadian ensembles are screaming for a pretty strong system in the NW Caribbean in the long range which is very telling. HWRF loves it, even in the outer grid.

All this shows the GFS is not just popping up a phantom storm.

And dont forget the HWRF run for Julia that also shows it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[perk]

Can't ignore the consistency of the GFS every run putting the Gulf under the gun every time.

Ivan that's what i'm taking from the lasts 3 or 4 runs from the GFS, even though it has went from south Texas to Florida.

[Ivanhater]

Can't ignore the consistency of the GFS every run putting the Gulf under the gun every time.

Ivan that's what i'm taking from the lasts 3 or 4 runs from the GFS, even though it has went from south Texas to Florida.

Definitly going to see more Mexico all the way to Florida runs as the GFS tries to work out the progression of the central U.S trough. Might even see a recurve or no development run mixed in. Just how it works

[KWT]

I think a recurve is just about as implausable as it can get, I just can't see anyway at all this recurve, more chance of this becoming the most powerful TC on Earth ever then it recurving from where its expected to be...can rule that particular solution out...unless you count a recurve as a system moving north into the Guld and hitting W/C Gulf!

[cycloneye]

GFS forecast for new pouch PGI89T.

[Ivanhater]

I think a recurve is just about as implausable as it can get, I just can't see anyway at all this recurve, more chance of this becoming the most powerful TC on Earth ever then it recurving from where its expected to be...can rule that particular solution out...unless you count a recurve as a system moving north into the Guld and hitting W/C Gulf!

My point was the GFS will likely throw out a couple crazy solutions. A recurve run would be easy if the GFS bombed this out early.

[lonelymike]

Who knows what this storm would do beyond 5 days out much less 16. Probably will develop but head into the Yucatan and then all bets are off. GFS still isn't very good with troughs but then again what model is this far out. I think the lack of comment by the pro mets is kinda telling.

Wait and see Maude Wait and See.

[KWT]

Yeah almost certainly Ivanhater, given late September is a time of flux I'd be far less confident about where this goes then say mid August. I was confident about Danielle recurving....but since then confidence has been slipping and this one is probably the worst one yet!

[ConvergenceZone]

Okay, what the heck is a "pouch"??? Is that another name for wave?

[wzrgirl1]

What is a Kelvin wave?

[cycloneye]

Okay, what the heck is a "pouch"??? Is that another name for wave?

All you want to know about what a pouch is,you can go to the sticky thread at this forum where you will have plenty of information about this.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109400&p=2066043#p2066043

[Vortex]

If ther 12Z Euro is correct at H+240 the system in the NW carribean by that time would likely be headed NW/N...Significant troughiness along the east coast...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

[Ptarmigan]

Hmmmm. Should be interesting next 2 weeks. When you think the last storm is done and there is a lull, it comes back again. These tropical cyclones are like cockroaches. May as well call them cockroach tropical cyclones.

[Vortex]

12 Canadian shows the strong vorticity nicely coming through the windwards...Also notice the trough similar to the euro coming across the mid-west... potentially important down the road...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[Vortex]

Here's the area that models appear to develop and bring into the carribean currently at 9N/41W....




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg