ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Aquawind]

Looks at the loop it seems like it will be lucky to get into the BOC and if so barely..Especially if the ridging wxmann57 mentions does strengthen..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 151515.GIF



Should be emerging during the overnight hours (edt)

[South Texas Storms]

still looks very good over land.
imo it should become a hurricane in the boc.

[Aquawind]

:uarrow:
still looks very good over land.
imo it should become a hurricane in the boc.

Sure does.. more convection refiring near the center and more banding..almost looks like it's strengthening..

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 19.0N 89.4W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 16/0600Z 19.6N 90.9W 30 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 92.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 21.1N 94.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 21.3N 95.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 98.5W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1800Z 21.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[BigA]

Interesting how the land based convection seems to be wrapping into the circulation. Also looks to have a northern vector on movement. Shouldn't have trouble getting into the BOC, and once there, I think a hurricane is likely.

[KWT]

Decent structure still,just depends on how far away from Meixco coast in BoC this system can get to be honest.

[wxman57]

We have it going inland about 90 miles south of the NHC track, close to Tuxpan on Friday night. It's tracking left of the NHC forecast now. That ridge appears to build in pretty strongly over Texas on Friday. Should push it south of west once it passes the mid BoC.

[KWT]

Yeah makes sense Wxman57, what strength do you have it at by the way?

I'm personally thinkingn 75-80kts simply because of the buesting pattern onto landfall and also the good conditions expected in the BoC...

[gilbert88]

Fascinating little storm so far. Hopefully we will get to see it go into RI in the Bay of Campeche!

[superfly]

Still looks good, probably emerge in 4-5 hours.

[wxman57]

Yeah makes sense Wxman57, what strength do you have it at by the way?

I'm personally thinkingn 75-80kts simply because of the buesting pattern onto landfall and also the good conditions expected in the BoC...

Around there - 75-80 kts.

[RL3AO]

Fascinating little storm so far. Hopefully we will get to see it go into RI in the Bay of Campeche!

I'm sure the people in Mexico agree with you...

[HURAKAN]

Close to the coast

[brunota2003]

Yep...it has been trucking across today...ADT has the center just to the east of 90W as of 2315Z

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2010 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 19:08:46 N Lon : 89:48:27 W


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE

[Shuriken]

Is the Sabancuy radar broke, or has access been removed for bandwidth reasons?

[CrazyC83]

Is that an eye near 19.4N 90.2W?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 13, 2010091600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 901W, 35, 1000, TS

[lester]

Fascinating little storm so far. Hopefully we will get to see it go into RI in the Bay of Campeche!

Mexico would like to have a little talk with you..

[cpdaman]

Fascinating little storm so far. Hopefully we will get to see it go into RI in the Bay of Campeche!

Mexico would like to have a little talk with you..

i think this thing might just crank up .......what's to stop a small storm like this from going to cat 3/4? these small storms could do this in 30 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

nice little eye feature trying to pop out.. on IR.. I imagine this will intensify quickly once over water in a couple hours..