ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[cpdaman]

nice little eye feature trying to pop out.. on IR.. I imagine this will intensify quickly once over water in a couple hours..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

latest image makes it look like center is about 20 miles or so from coast. THIS thing is gonna explode...karl is a stick of dynomite

[Aric Dunn]

nice little eye feature trying to pop out.. on IR.. I imagine this will intensify quickly once over water in a couple hours..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

latest image makes it look like center is about 20 miles or so from coast. THIS thing is gonna explode...karl is a stick of dynomite

[cpdaman]

too bad there wasn't a weather gambling website i would take 2000$ on this strengthening more than this shows.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2032.shtml

0% of major in next 36 hours...2% of cat 2 in 36 hours....then 3% of a major by 48 hours ....

put me down for 300$ on cat 2 of more in 36 hours....with odds of approx 50:1....juding by the 2%. that will be 15K lol

[Tstormwatcher]

Unless karl heads a bit north, he will not have much time over water to intensify beyong a cat 1.

[Aric Dunn]

Unless karl heads a bit north, he will not have much time over water to intensify beyong a cat 1.

well its supposed to slow down...

[cpdaman]

Unless karl heads a bit north, he will not have much time over water to intensify beyong a cat 1.

well its supposed to slow down...

how much time does karl need to get to cat 2.....? he's small ...and he has a good structure and he's going into bath water.....i say by lunchtime he's a cat 2....evening latest....just my opinion obviously

[RL3AO]

Unless karl heads a bit north, he will not have much time over water to intensify beyong a cat 1.

well its supposed to slow down...

how much time does karl need to get to cat 2.....? he's small ...and he has a good structure and he's going into bath water.....i say by lunchtime he's a cat 2....evening latest....just my opinion obviously

NHC forecast gives it 42 hours over water. Even if its just 32, thats enough time to become a major if it RI's. Considering it seems to have a good structure and pretty much everything else in the Atlantic is RI'ing, I'd say it has plenty of time.

[Aric Dunn]

It can happen pretty quickly.. a matter of a day ...

[hurricaneCW]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



I'm going to go all out with Karl, he already looks primed to explode once he hits the water, he kind of reminds me of a much weaker and smaller Katrina just as it was about to exit sw Florida. She was primed and exploded and I think Karl will too. Also, given that it's a smaller system, I think he's more likely to rapidly intensify than a larger system could. I think he has about 30-36 hours over water which I think is enough to allow Karl to get up to major status.

My guess of a forecast is that he will intensify into a 115-120 mph Category 3 as he makes landfall.

[Florida1118]

I'm going to go all out with Karl, he already looks primed to explode once he hits the water, he kind of reminds me of a much weaker and smaller Katrina just as it was about to exit sw Florida. She was primed and exploded and I think Karl will too. Also, given that it's a smaller system, I think he's more likely to rapidly intensify than a larger system could. I think he has about 30-36 hours over water which I think is enough to allow Karl to get up to major status.

My guess of a forecast is that he will intensify into a 115-120 mph Category 3 as he makes landfall.

Poor Mexico...Im going to make a guess of 95-105mph storm. If he did make it to Major, that would be 4 in 15 days into Sept....

[plasticup]

Karl almost looks better coming off the Yucatan than going onto it.

Then: http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/3472/1815utc.jpg
Now: http://img189.imageshack.us/img189/9605/avnlq.jpg

[cpdaman]

two more hour and the eye should be getting wet....splash

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

aric do you have the latest image similiar to what you posted 15 minutes ago....or will that be another 10 min or so

i think mexico needs to be onguard for a potentially very dangerous hurricane....

[Scorpion]

Unless karl heads a bit north, he will not have much time over water to intensify beyong a cat 1.

well its supposed to slow down...

how much time does karl need to get to cat 2.....? he's small ...and he has a good structure and he's going into bath water.....i say by lunchtime he's a cat 2....evening latest....just my opinion obviously

No way, it probably won't make it to Cat 1 intensity until tomorrow night at the earliest.

[HURAKAN]

Funny enough "Karl" comes from the German meaning "Charles" and this Karl may pull a Charley!! lol

[FLpanhandle91]

Karl will undergo RI over the next 12 hours. I'll go out on a limb and say Karl will be at major status by noon tomorrow. Intensity between 100 and 105 knots. Doesn't take much for a well organized storm as small as Karl to explode in with water temps in the mid to upper 80's..

[Aric Dunn]

If that is an eye "like" feature ( pretty sure it is similar to what happened with fay)then it is likely that it wont take very long at all once it gets over water in the next couple hours. could be a hurricane by morning

very deep convection beginning to build as it approaches the coast..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

Deep convection keeps increasing

[FLpanhandle91]

Deep convection keeps increasing

COLLDDDD cloud tops blowing up right now around the eye feature. Intensity is close to 45 or 50 knots right now imo... Even Dvorak is showing a strong signature.

[brunota2003]

Latest ADT guesstimate on the center location has the center just to the east of that eyelike feature:



I am interested in what the 11 pm discussion will have to say!

[RL3AO]

Anyone else find it funny that there are no tropical storm warnings for the Yucatan which has a tropical storm crossing over it right now? The Western coast of the Yucatan is under a watch.