ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[AussieMark]

I'm a bit surprised they didn't go a little higher actually but they clearly believed the winds hadn't quite caught up with the wind speeds just yet...

I'm willing to bet the next forecast cycle from the NHC have Karl making landfall as a category-2 now...

The way this is going and the way the last few days have been would not be shocked at all to see it strengthen to a cat 3 before its second landfall.

Heck Julia was never supposed to even get close to cat 4.

[Aquawind]

WOW!! Wow wow!! Amazing organization for coming off the Yukatan.. AMAZING

[brunota2003]

SMFR did pick up a nonflagged wind of 57 knots, which for once lines up perfectly with the flight level reduction (56.8 for 80%). Perhaps they should bump it up to 60 knots, encase stronger winds were not sampled (only 3 knots higher from those already found). Even if it is not at 60 knots right now, I'm sure within a few passes it will have strengthened some.

[Aquawind]

I'm a bit surprised they didn't go a little higher actually but they clearly believed the winds hadn't quite caught up with the wind speeds just yet...

I'm willing to bet the next forecast cycle from the NHC have Karl making landfall as a category-2 now...

The way this is going and the way the last few days have been would not be shocked at all to see it strengthen to a cat 3 before its second landfall.

Heck Julia was never supposed to even get close to cat 4.

Yep the intensity has got to be adjusted..Wow..

[KWT]

Yeah Brutona, I don't think its going to take this one very long at all to strengthen, I see no reason not to go for something like 90-95kts at landfall given the current trends that are clear for everyone to see.

[brunota2003]

I am also curious what the intensity was as it moved across the Yucatan, and then right as it moved off...did it really go from 40 mph to 65-70 mph in the span of not even 12 hours (between the time it was overland and moved offshore)?

[Vortmax1]

Wow!
Karl held together amazingly well over the Yucatan.
Looks like he's really pouring it on right now.
Certainly at hurricane level now...just how much stronger before second landfall is my question?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[hurricaneCW]

Will it landfall in a populated area or a quiet area?

[plasticup]

Will it landfall in a populated area or a quiet area?

Right now, it is forecast to make landfall near Tampico. North of there is sparsely populated, south is more heavily populated.

[cwachal]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 161224
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER AND SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 92.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES




000
WTNT43 KNHC 161224
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT KARL WAS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY ABOUT 30 N MI. THE PLANE
MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR
WINDS SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO SHIFT THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1230Z 19.7N 92.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 20.1N 93.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.5N 94.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.8N 96.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

1st visible

[KWT]

Wow its looking good there Hurakan, won't be long before this system is a hurricane I'd imagine, its got very good conditions aloft...

Thats reflected by the fact the NHC is now going upto 85kts and category-2 at landfall...and even that maybe a little on the low side if the current trend continues.

Looks like its heading towards a rather populated region as well....

[hurricaneCW]

Will it landfall in a populated area or a quiet area?

Right now, it is forecast to make landfall near Tampico. North of there is sparsely populated, south is more heavily populated.

So with the track a bit more south, I assume it might be more likely to landfall south of Tampico or along a more populated area.

[plasticup]

Will it landfall in a populated area or a quiet area?

Right now, it is forecast to make landfall near Tampico. North of there is sparsely populated, south is more heavily populated.

So with the track a bit more south, I assume it might be more likely to landfall south of Tampico or along a more populated area.

Looks like it. We aren't talking South Florida density, but it is most definitely a well populated area.

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

its very likely to be a hurricane at 11am .. not surprised since it maintained at tight inner core over the Yucatan.

[alan1961]

Will it landfall in a populated area or a quiet area?

Right now, it is forecast to make landfall near Tampico. North of there is sparsely populated, south is more heavily populated.

Poza Rica has a population of around 180,000..it may get
very close there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poza_Rica,_Veracruz

[KWT]

its very likely to be a hurricane at 11am .. not surprised since it maintained at tight inner core over the Yucatan.

Yeah and it probably helped that it was blowing up in terms of convection as well onto landfall, these systems almost always do well overland in that situation providing they can get out over water quickly enough to make use of that advantage.

I do think its going to be a hurricane very soon, going to be a good un to watch this one, I wouldn't be shocked if this one does become a powerful cat-2...

[HURAKAN]

I will be surprised if it doesn't become a major hurricane before landfall