Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

Wow! Great pic, Barbara!! Thanks for posting that. Is it looking E or N?

looking east. my friend took it
I'm gonna go on the road a little later and try to take more pictures

[cycloneye]

Great pic Barbara.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NW
PASSING ABOUT 475 MILES TO THE NE OF SAN JUAN FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HRS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SSW IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW AND WILL AFFECT ERN PORTIONS OF PR...VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING SEAS. A RECENT 1255Z
ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE ERN SEMICRICLE OF IGOR AND INDICATED THAT
THE 34KT AND 50KT RADIUS IS LARGER THAN THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM
NHC. A RECON WILL INVESTIGATE IGOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER
DETERMINE THE WIND FIELD. SO WOULD ANTICIPATE EXPANSION OF THE
34-KT WIND FIELD AND THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHIFTING WINDS NEXT 36
HRS AS IGOR KEEPS ON A NW TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON A LARGER 34-KT WIND FIELD THAN ANALYZED BY NHC
ON THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF IGOR AND GUIDANCE TRENDING HIGHER WITH
SEAS HAVE RAISED THEM TO 13-15 FT FOR TOMORROW FOR AMZ710. SEAS
FORECAST SHOULD BECOME MORE ACCURATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE EXTENT OF 34-50 KT RADIUS. A HIGH SURF
WILL BE ISSUED AS SWELLS OF 14 FT AT 14 SECS AFFECT THE ATLC
COASTLINE. WILL ALSO EVALUATE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH POTENTIAL OVR
THE NEXT 36 HRS. SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE OF DEGREE OF
MARINE IMPACTS WITH DATA FROM THE RECON.

[Gustywind]

Wow! Great pic, Barbara!! Thanks for posting that. Is it looking E or N?

looking east. my friend took it
I'm gonna go on the road a little later and try to take more pictures

Thanks Barbara very nice pic. Thanks to provide us all these nice infos. Meanwhile, we're very very sad here in Guadeloupe! Igor made his first victim in Guadeloupe. A man who was fishing at Trois-Rivieres had been surprised by the large and dangerous swells This informations has been provided this morning by our local radio RCI (Radio Caraibeean International). In the same time Meteo-France has even expected to put a red alert at 12AM given the strong waves hitting our the area. Atr 5am they have reported averages waves at 4m70 to 5 meters and high waves reaching 8 meters and they think that the worst is to come tonight or tommorow, so won't be surprised to have huge waves at 9 or more . Be aware and EXTREMELY PRUDENT MY FRIENDS.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

Yesterday El Salvador received indirect rains from Karl and some places received more than 4 inches of rain in just 24 hours, other places experienced little or no rain, some observations:

El Pacayal 139.4 mm/5.49 inches
Tepezontes 138.4 mm/5.45 inches
La Hachadura 76.7 mm/3.02 inches
Santa Tecla 42 mm/1.65 inches
San Salvador 6 mm/0.24 inches

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE IGOR WILL PASS NEAR 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH WILL DOMINATE OUR
LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WILL BE HURRICANE IGOR.
IGOR WAS LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING NEAR 21.0N AND 57.2W OR NEAR
700 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WILL PASS AROUND
450 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO TOMORROW NIGHT. HOWEVER...IGOR
IS A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE. THEREFORE...PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE GOING TO BE INFLUENCE BY THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR...WHICH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN WEST TOMORROW AND SATURDAY...AND
AS THE HURRICANE MOVE TO OUR NORTH...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS MAINLY SUNDAY...AS WELL AS HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO. A TAIL OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND...APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
BY THAT TIME.

AS IGOR MOVE FAR AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY BY TUESDAY...WITH NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THINGS COULD GET BUSY AGAIN IN THE LONG
RANGE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 10N AND 40W LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...NEED TO BE WATCHED...IN CASE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN A TC BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...AND PASSING THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THE GFS FORECAST A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE LOCAL BY
MID WEEK...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM...APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN BY
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW..IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY IF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP...AND WHICH TRACK WILL TAKE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST LOCAL WATERS. A
HIGH SURF WILL BE ISSUED AS SWELLS OF 14 FT AT 14 SECS AFFECT THE
ATLC COASTLINE. WILL ALSO EVALUATE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH POTENTIAL
OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.

[msbee]

I was out driving around looking at the waves. I took some pictures and a short video
take a look if you get a chance.

http://barcann.livejournal.com/195287.html

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory in effect

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

...LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO IGOR...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-002-170300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0012.100917T0400Z-100919T0400Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
ST CROIX-
259 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
AST SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT AST
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 10 TO 12 FEET ASSOCIATED TO DISTANT
HURRICANE IGOR ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ALL OPEN PASSAGES...

THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 10
TO 15 FEET OR HIGHER ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO
NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE
TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE
TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH
EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 3:37 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.1 FEET
5:22 PM AST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 1.7 FEET

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 6:02 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 1.6 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[expat2carib]

Large rollers coming in at the Atlantic side of Dominica. Some houses are getting flooded in Calibishi as heard on local radio.

[abajan]

Feeder band alert, peeps!
Looks like one is forming east of the chain in this (time sensitive) water vapor loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

Don’t be surprised if we get some rough weather tonight or tomorrow.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[abajan]

Low pressure readings in the Lesser Antilles today:

[expat2carib]

Heard on the radio here in Dominica:

The problem was/is flooding in multiple communities.

At least he could have read the TWO and/or advisories on NHC or CDERA.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Yes, as minister of interior I have not witnessed any hurricanes yet. I remember Hugo and this recent one is not that dangerous at all. I know it's called Igor.

I'm not an expert in hurricanes. I suggest you listen to the experts that know something about hurricanes, (side note: there are no experts here on the island.....neither any references are given)

And then he ends with saying: As alwaysI keep myself informed so I can give the people of Dominica good advise as I have been giving in the last years. I always take care of my voters. I will help them.

=======================================

Banana republic. Absolute idiots in government. PERIOD

[expat2carib]

Moderate stormy weather here on the south eastern side of Dominica. The meteo france radar shows the outer feeder bands going over the island,

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[cycloneye]

Updated High Surf Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1021 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

...LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
IGOR...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-VIZ001-002-171030-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0012.100917T0400Z-100919T0400Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
ST CROIX-
1021 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
NIGHT...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY
NIGHT.

LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 10 TO 12 FEET ASSOCIATED TO DISTANT
HURRICANE IGOR ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ALL OPEN PASSAGES...

THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO
15 FEET OR HIGHER ALONG THE LOCAL REEFS...BEACHES AND SHOALS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 3:37 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING AT 1.1 FEET
5:22 PM AST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 1.7 FEET

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 6:02 PM AST FRIDAY EVENING AT 1.6 FEET.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[BZSTORM]

Igors eye might be a ways off from the island but Igor is HUGE and from the surf pics posted, sat images (he does look impressive) and all your reports sounds like you in the islands are getting some seriously rough weather, hope u all keep safe and Igor moves away from you real soon.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather Discussion
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, September 17, 2010 620 am EDT/520 am CDT


For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.

Here’s a bit of interesting information: For the first time since 1998, we have three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. As of this morning we have Hurricanes Igor, Julia and Karl. Having three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin is rare and this is only the ninth time this has happened since 1851. The other years were 1893, 1926, 1950, 1961, 1967, 1980, 1995 and 1998.

Hurricane Igor:
For Information About Hurricane Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068 .

Igor remains a major Category 3 hurricane this morning and is expected to remain a major hurricane right through this weekend. By Monday, Igor is expected to start encountering cooler sea surface temperatures and increased shear and Igor will gradually weaken early next week and become extra tropical east of Newfoundland by Wednesday.

It needs to be emphasized that Igor will be a very large and dangerous hurricane when it tracks either very close to or right over Bermuda Sunday night. More on that later…

Igor is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 9 mph. Igor is forecast to turn to the north by late Saturday night or early Sunday with almost all of the model guidance forecasting Igor to pass very close to Bermuda Sunday night.

Hurricane Watches are currently in effect for the island of Bermuda and I expect these to be upgraded to Hurricane Warnings either later today or first thing Saturday morning. Based on the latest guidance, tropical storm force winds (40+mph) will begin affecting Bermuda during Saturday night. These winds will steadily increase and reach hurricane force sometime during Sunday afternoon. Hurricane force winds with winds exceeding 100 mph can be expected on Sunday night. These winds will gradually subside on Monday as Igor pulls away to the northeast.

Large swells will cause dangerous surf conditions on the island of Bermuda right into this weekend and will only worsen on Sunday and Sunday night as Igor approaches. Large swells will also affect the US East Coast right through this weekend and will cause very dangerous surf and rip currents. Beach closures are possible due to these rough conditions. Be aware that these will be dangerous surf conditions and all beach goers should stay out of the ocean.

Hurricane Karl:
For Information About Hurricane Karl with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3186.

Karl continues to intensify at a fairly rapid rate and it appears the hurricane will make landfall on the Mexican coast as a Category 4 hurricane late this afternoon about halfway between Tuxpan and Veracruz. Once Karl comes ashore, it will steadily weaken this weekend over the mountains of Mexico and it will bring the likelihood of very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides.

A storm surge of 12 to 15 feet can be expected along the coast of Mexico near where Karl makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Winds of tropical storm force are currently occurring within the Hurricane Warning area and these winds will increase to hurricane force by late this morning with winds of near Category 4 strength possible near where Karl makes landfall on the Mexican coast.

Caribbean Development Late Next Week or Next Weekend??:
The model guidance as a whole continues to strongly hint at development in the western Caribbean late next week or next weekend as a tropical wave is forecast to track across the Caribbean next week and will be the focus for this possible development.

Looking at the latest model guidance, the GFS model forecasts development out of the southwest Caribbean in about 7 to 8 days from now and ultimately forecasts this system to be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the month. The latest European model forecasts that development will hold off until about 9 to 10 days from now and would occur in the southwest Caribbean. The Canadian model is now the most bullish and forecasts a system to be forming near Belize in 10 days from now and would be pulled northeastward by a strong trough over the eastern United States. The NOGAPS model forecasts this development to occur in about 7 days from now just south and southwest of Jamaica.

One thing the global model guidance all agree on is that a fairly deep trough will track across the eastern United States during the last few days of September into the first couple of days of October. So, if something is indeed developing in the western Caribbean like many of the model guidance members suggest, then it could be pulled northward and be a real threat to the United States.

So, needless to say, I will be monitoring things in the Caribbean very closely next week and will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171011
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HURRICANE IGOR WILL BEGIN MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BEHIND IT NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WEDNESDAY...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE AND WEAKER WINDS RETURN THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...TRENDS FROM THE UPPER LEVELS HOLD AT MID
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THE LOW PRESSURE IS MUCH WEAKER AND IS ONLY SEEN
IN THE MODELS AS A TROUGH AT THIS TIME. MID LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AROUND MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN A PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AFTERWARD MOISTURE IS
PATCHIER AND WEAKER.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF
IGOR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER WHICH HIGHER
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORMAL EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RESUME ON TUESDAY...BUT WEAKEN OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE FEWER AND RAIN AMOUNTS WERE LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT AS IGOR APPROACHES ITS CLOSEST POSITION TO PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A NARROW
SPIRAL BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE IN THE CIRCLE OF HURRICANE
IGOR NOT QUITE ENTERING THE AREA. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY...AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THIS WILL KEEP MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT BAY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE NORTH COAST SHOULD ENJOY A RELATIVELY DRY
DAY WITH PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SOUTH COAST SHOULD ALSO
SEE VERY FEW SHOWERS AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY. INTERIOR AREAS AND
AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM PUERTO RICO MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY THE GFS BRINGS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IT EDGES SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER BRINGS BETTER MOISTURE
NORTH IN THE FLOW INTO IGOR AND THEN BRINGS ANOTHER PULSE OF
MOISTURE ON A TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT ON
A SWITCH TO EASTERLY FLOW THAT BOTH MODELS SEE. THIS SHOULD BRING
BETTER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TO A NOMINAL LEVEL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS NO MAJOR LOW LEVEL FEATURES ARE
OBSERVED AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

GRIDS WERE MAINLY MODIFIED FOR SUBSIDENCE AROUND IGOR AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ON MONDAY. ALL CHANGES WERE INCREMENTAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN OR NEAR ANY
SHRA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDS ALONG THE
USVI TAF SITES...AND TNCM AND TKPK...DUE TO FRAGMENTS OF LLVL
CLOUDS AND SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE IGOR.
SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IGOR PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL IS NOW INCREASING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND IN THE
PASSAGES FROM HURRICANE IGOR. THE WAVE WATCH ALSO NOTES A SECOND
SWELL TRAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST THAT
REACHES UP TO 1.5 METERS OR ABOUT 4.5 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH 6
FOOT SWELL FROM IGOR FROM THE NORTH AND THIS NEW TRAIN ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY FROM THE WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SEAS WILL BE CROSS CUT WITH NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR SWELL THAT MAY MAKE NAVIGATION SOMEWHAT UNPLEASANT.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO REMOVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
BEFORE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT AS SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SUBSEQUENTLY NORTH BUILD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 78 / 20 20 30 10
STT 90 81 90 81 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CULEBRA-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY.

SCA...AMZ710-712-715-725-732-741-742.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ST
CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

SCA...AMZ710-715-722-725-732.

&&

$$

11/12

[bvigal]

Great pics, Barbara!
Sorry to hear about the fatality in Guadeloupe, and surf damage there and elsewhere in Leewards. Hopefully it will subside quickly!

Yesterday I was working at East End and went by two beaches on the way home. They were rockin'. This pic is from my porch, the bay faces NW, so not getting the brunt of easterly swell. No big rollers, but a lot of confused seas (mixed swell) churning up sand. Our beaches have all been red flagged (no swimming) until further notice, due to dangerous rips.