ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[cwachal]

Does this have a chance of regenerating on the pacific ocean side?

No

[x-y-no]

Does this have a chance of regenerating on the pacific ocean side?

Extremely unlikely. The part of Mexico it will cross is pretty mountainous.

[MGC]

No, it will fall apart over the mountains.....small chance of reaching Cat-3....it will likely have to experience RI though......MGC

[tailgater]

ok, everyone needs to check out s2k's newest feature courtesy of x-y-no's hard work as well as Chris's of tropicaltalantic.com
Go to this link to see an automatic update of recon data via google earth (if you don't have google earth- you just need to download the plug in) super easy peasy! Thanks to both these guys for what they have added here. Right now you can move the map to see recon for all storms in the atlantic, BOC and the gulf. Just move over to the area where recon is for each storm and voila!
thanks again guys!

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109425

Great work guys, I had Google already but this will be so much quicker and updating automatically. cool stuff!

[ConvergenceZone]

Does this have a chance of regenerating on the pacific ocean side?

Extremely unlikely. The part of Mexico it will cross is pretty mountainous.

The reason I'm asking is that don't most pacific storms begin as waves anyway? and this
should be a wave by the time it crosses the land and emerges back into the water?

[hurricaneCW]

Karl is barely gaining any latitude, he might barely reach 20N, he's moving at a good pace too. Maybe a Cat 3 is way too far fetched for Karl, I think the NHC is right on the money as of right now.

[abajan]

Does this have a chance of regenerating on the pacific ocean side?

Knowing how mountainous that part of Mexico is, I doubt it.

[ConvergenceZone]

Does this have a chance of regenerating on the pacific ocean side?

Knowing how mountainous that part of Mexico is, I doubt it.

Again, I don't mean will it emerge as a depression. I just meant, when it emerges as a strong wave on the pacific
side, is there the possiblity for development. The reason I'm asking is because I have seen that happen to a couple
of storms before that have taken the same path...

[cwachal]

Does this have a chance of regenerating on the pacific ocean side?

Knowing how mountainous that part of Mexico is, I doubt it.

Again, I don't mean will it emerge as a depression. I just meant, when it emerges as a strong wave on the pacific
side, is there the possiblity for development. The reason I'm asking is because I have seen that happen to a couple
of storms before that have taken the same path...

the only thing is the Pacific is not really conducive for development right now anyways... if you look at how many storms they have had recently you would be shocked at the lack of activity

[plasticup]

Does this have a chance of regenerating on the pacific ocean side?

Knowing how mountainous that part of Mexico is, I doubt it.

Again, I don't mean will it emerge as a depression. I just meant, when it emerges as a strong wave on the pacific
side, is there the possiblity for development. The reason I'm asking is because I have seen that happen to a couple
of storms before that have taken the same path...

I assume that the 5% probability of TS strength winds denotes a strong wave. That could redevelop. There is a history of Atl-->EPac basin crossing, but it is super rare and typically occurs farther south where the mountains are lower. See Hurricane Greta–Olivia, and NOAA's complete list.

[ConvergenceZone]

the only thing is the Pacific is not really conducive for development right now anyways... if you look at how many storms they have had recently you would be shocked at the lack of activity

Okay, gotcha, I understand what you are saying now..That's what I was trying to get at
was, is the the conditons in the pacific conducive for development...
thanks.

[dwsqos2]

One negative for rapid intensification is the convection in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

[wxman57]

One negative for rapid intensification is the convection in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

I don't believe the scattered showers 500 miles away (or more) will have any impact at all on Karl's intensification. The only limit I see is time over water. Could reach Cat 3 before impact tomorrow afternoon/evening.

[Vortmax1]

CIMSS Mimic Imagery of Karl's amazing trip across the Yucatan.
See how he really puts it together after emergence in the BOC:


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lay48.html

[alan1961]

winding up with an eye starting to appear

[dixiebreeze]

My daughter lives in the mountains about 1 mile high just east of Guadalaja at Lake Chapala and they got quite a bit of damage from Alex. So we're are worried about Karl. The mountains help, but Karl looks to be stronger than Alex.

[KWT]

Thats explosive looking, no doubts this one will have a shot at being a major hurricane at landfall, I can see one of those last minute type systems that just get upgraded before landfall...

Amazing to think we could be seeing a major from Karl, the models did a very good job in seeing a very favourable set-up aloft!

[Blown Away]

Amazing how hurricanes can quickly build in a restricted water body area like the Southern BOC.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

Yeah it sure is BA, but then again if conditions are good enough sometimes the curve of the land can really tighten up flabby core and I think thats what happened with this system as it came offland, also may have helped Alex hence the low pressure it had when it came offland.