ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

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plasticup

#1121 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:00 pm

1 PM advisory:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
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Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1122 Postby alan1961 » Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:10 pm

Coming into view on Mexican radar.

Image


http://smn.cna.gob.mx/

Click on the Alvarado station.
Last edited by alan1961 on Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1123 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:22 pm

Image

latest
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#1124 Postby Vortmax1 » Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:24 pm

alan1961 ....Could you please share your link to that Mexico radar?
Thank you.
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Re:

#1125 Postby bigGbear » Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:35 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:alan1961 ....Could you please share your link to that Mexico radar?
Thank you.


Alvarado Radar option

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/
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Re:

#1126 Postby alan1961 » Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:36 pm

Vortmax1 wrote:alan1961 ....Could you please share your link to that Mexico radar?
Thank you.


Link is now under the radar loop Vortmax :wink:
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#1127 Postby Vortmax1 » Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:43 pm

Thank you for the radar link!
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#1128 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:55 pm

184130 1944N 09319W 6444 03610 9737 +126 +063 104022 025 030 001 00

974 mb but estimating from 644 mb. I guess it's 978 mb.
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#1129 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 16, 2010 1:58 pm

Based on the high level flight estimate, the winds are probably around 70 kt.
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Re:

#1130 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 16, 2010 2:10 pm

KWT wrote:Yeah it sure is BA, but then again if conditions are good enough sometimes the curve of the land can really tighten up flabby core and I think thats what happened with this system as it came offland, also may have helped Alex hence the low pressure it had when it came offland.


and dont forget hermine! she got going pretty quick down there as well just a few weeks ago! :D
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Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1131 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 16, 2010 3:42 pm

Image
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cyclonic chronic

#1132 Postby cyclonic chronic » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:13 pm

000
UZNT13 KWBC 162009
XXAA 66207 99199 70936 04693 99984 25605 32570 00638 ///// /////
92549 23004 36104 85287 20402 02592 70949 12424 05064 88999 77999

104kt at 925mb. if thats true it could very well be a major by landfall. what a month/year so far. lord help us in the u.s. if the second peak of the season (oct.) is half as intense as now!!
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1133 Postby bigGbear » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:18 pm

wxman57 wrote:We have it going inland about 90 miles south of the NHC track, close to Tuxpan on Friday night. It's tracking left of the NHC forecast now. That ridge appears to build in pretty strongly over Texas on Friday. Should push it south of west once it passes the mid BoC.


Wxman57 really nailed the track last night, although it may be a little ahead of schedule.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1134 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:21 pm

bigGbear wrote:
wxman57 wrote:We have it going inland about 90 miles south of the NHC track, close to Tuxpan on Friday night. It's tracking left of the NHC forecast now. That ridge appears to build in pretty strongly over Texas on Friday. Should push it south of west once it passes the mid BoC.


Wxman57 really nailed the track last night, although it may be a little ahead of schedule.



Ever since Ike, I have always listened to Wxman57. He knows what he is doing.
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#1135 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:37 pm

104 kt at 925mb = 78 kt at the surface.
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superfly

#1136 Postby superfly » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:41 pm

Pressure is bombing right now, winds should follow.
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Re:

#1137 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:104 kt at 925mb = 78 kt at the surface.


with a .75 reduction... have they been doing that ? thought i saw .9 reduction could be wrong did not pay attention really.
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Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1138 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:46 pm

Image
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Re: Re:

#1139 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 16, 2010 4:47 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:104 kt at 925mb = 78 kt at the surface.


with a .75 reduction... have they been doing that ? thought i saw .9 reduction could be wrong did not pay attention really.


At that level it is .75 reduction.
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#1140 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 16, 2010 5:31 pm

Either way this one is stronger then 65kts right now, recon supports winds going upto 75kts now and maybe even 80kts if the NHC are feeling kind!

Has every chance of being a 2 into landfall, and Mexico radar will give us an increasingly good idea of the motion of the system as the eye gets closer to the system.
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