Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm curious when the purse is going to start developing...24 hours? 48 hours maybe?

[Wx_Warrior]

But I do remember some saying 92L was going to blow up and be very dangerous for NGOM.

But, I agree with you on this one Ivan....no idea when and if it lands, but pattern is changing.

[Vortex]

by tomorrow we should have a better defined system to follow...

[ConvergenceZone]

by tomorrow we should have a better defined system to follow...

I agree Vortex. The models are all over the place, because it's not defined yet as a named system...

[Vortex]

I think its pretty remarkable that the GFS with last Friday nights 00z run and a hit on FL has not backed down once with development since. The model continues to depict development and in fact we now have a focal point nearly in the exact place that the GFS indicated it would be nearly a week out…T-1 hour until the 18Z rolls….

[Vortex]

18Z rolling...anyone care to guess where we end up this run. I say Texas then well start over with FL on the 00z run

[BigB0882]

18Z rolling...anyone care to guess where we end up this run. I say Texas then well start over with FL on the 00z run

I will guess it shows a stronger trough and goes further east. I say MS to Fl.

[Florida1118]

18Z rolling...anyone care to guess where we end up this run. I say Texas then well start over with FL on the 00z run

I will guess it shows a stronger trough and goes further east. I say MS to Fl.

1926 was the last time that Tampa Bay got a direct hit with a big one.

My gut says Texas to MS. BTW, the last Major storm to hit Tampa was 1921 not 1926.

[Ivanhater]

Lol..after all that. The 18z GFS is showing no development

[TwisterFanatic]

GFS says "Not so fast my friend"

[KWT]

Lets wait to see if the lower resolution part of the run does anything with it, my guess is the 18z will pull a Karl and develop it further west.

[Vortex]

Thru H+126 no development…is it possible this will be the first run of the GFS without development of this system in nearly a week?

[Sambucol]

Approximately when is this disturbance expected to enter the Caribbean?

[Ivanhater]

Absolutely nothing this run. Not even on the vorticity map.

[Vortex]

in about 5 days or around H+120....A no go this run!

[ColinDelia]

Ah the best laid plans of meteorologists and men!

[hurricaneCW]

It's funny how there are no systems around when the upper air maps are screaming for a U.S. hit on the gfs run. Just look at that strong established ridging in the west Atlantic.

[Vortex]

Not sure what to make of this other than the GFS has backed off after 25+ runs…It is the 18Z. If the 00z shows the same thing then I’ll think along the lines of a serious bust.

[Ivanhater]

I'd like to repost my post from yesterday

Definitely going to see more Mexico all the way to Florida runs as the GFS tries to work out the progression of the central U.S trough. Might even see a recurve or no development run mixed in. Just how it works

[blazess556]

18z gfs still has it in the western caribbean.