Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

Delayed development but were back on....


H+240


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

[blazess556]

Delayed development but were back on....


H+240


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

which is what the euro shows. 12z euro doesn't show development till it reaches the western caribbean.

[hurricaneCW]

Probably going to see your classic late September/October like Caribbean developer especially considering that all of that sinking air is going to be replaced by next week. When you have record heat content, it's near the peak of the season, and there's plenty of instability around, you'll probably get a storm.

[blazess556]

Storm hits near the panhandle of fl.

[Vortex]

FL panhadle hit this run....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Wow..shocked it still developed with nothing at the 850 vort.

Panama city lol

[hurricaneCW]

I'm afraid we're going to be seeing a lot of those western Caribbean developers like Karl except now that we're entering late September, the tracking pattern will favor the gulf rather than the BOC. I don't think there are many mainland Mexican storm landfalls when the storm originates in the Caribbean in late September and October.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah..I haven't seen a Mexico run in a while...still 300 hours out though.

[Vortex]

What Ive noticed is the latter runs the last day or so have been further east more or less and pretty much abandoned any Mexico/S.Texas scenario as earlier runs had...Well see..I'm starting to beleive this is going to be a LA to FL event

[Stormcenter]

I guess Miami is next.

[KWT]

The 12z ECM is odd, I can't quite understand what is trying to develop on it, the Pouch ends up heading over the Caribbean Islands and then it gets slowly absorbed by a developing Monsoonal Gyre coming up into the BoC and helps to aid a system down there to spark off...probably wouldn't be far different from Opal actually IMO in terms of how it evolves.

The 18z GFS showing delayed development seems a far more realistic evolution in light of what has happened to Karl this week...

However if you get a decent region of Vort into the Caribbean, esp W.Car/BoC then your going to have a real shot at development...

[Ivanhater]

What Ive noticed is the latter runs the last day or so have been further east more or less and pretty much abandoned any Mexico/S.Texas scenario as earlier runs had...Well see..I'm starting to beleive this is going to be a LA to FL event

Still too early to say imo. At this range..it could easily switch back.

[Stormcenter]

IMO I still think 90 eastward looks like the best bet if this pans out.

What Ive noticed is the latter runs the last day or so have been further east more or less and pretty much abandoned any Mexico/S.Texas scenario as earlier runs had...Well see..I'm starting to beleive this is going to be a LA to FL event

[cycloneye]

It delays development,but the important thing is the consecutive runs since last friday showing this is telling.

[lonelymike]

Looks like a nature coast hit on the 18z. What does the 12z euro do with this?

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a nature coast hit on the 18z. What does the 12z euro do with this?

Well if you want to get technical it's around Panama city, at least the eye is near Panama city noted by the center isobar behind the "L"..kind of need to blow it up... but whose who cares this far out

[lonelymike]

Looks like a nature coast hit on the 18z. What does the 12z euro do with this?

Well if you want to get technical it's around Panama city, at least the eye is near Panama city noted by the center isobar behind the "L"..kind of need to blow it up... but whose who cares this far out

Split the difference and say Applachicola You're right waaaaaaayyyy too far out to say.
It is getting near October so a track into the West Gulf Coast of Florida is probable. Course all depends on the trough. Who knows probably destroy Jacksonville tomorrow.

[djmikey]

Question: How often is the GFS run/released?

[South Texas Storms]

imo its still way too early to rule out any landfall in the gom. although i think it will be somewhere in between tampico, mx and tampa, fl.
we still have many, many more gfs runs to come which means a lot more flip flopping between gom states landfalls.

[ColinDelia]

Interesting thing I noticed in the 18z GFS. Look at how the 850 mb vorticity from the Atlantic moves into the Caribbean
and combines with the vorticity in the SW Caribbean

144 hours


168 hours


Unfortunately this is at the end of the 168 hours that this site has maps for the 850 mb vorticity so difficult to see if that has been going on in prior runs
or to see exactly what the GFS has happening after that.