ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[TheBurn]

[Aric Dunn]

Either way this one is stronger then 65kts right now, recon supports winds going upto 75kts now and maybe even 80kts if the NHC are feeling kind!

Has every chance of being a 2 into landfall, and Mexico radar will give us an increasingly good idea of the motion of the system as the eye gets closer to the system.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Probably for the best that this one didn't emerge further up in the BoC and have more time to develop, but as it is 80-90kts is looking a good call, its developing a real good look on the IR and west moving storms tend to quick strengthening right into the last few hours at landfall.

Either way hope they are prepared for a 2/3 just in case it does bomb out in the next 12hrs...

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

pressure down to about 971-972 mb

winds so far FL 88kts. 67 sfmr..

[Aric Dunn]

234130 1938N 09403W 8428 01287 9771 +183 +146 297055 057 070 020 00
234200 1937N 09404W 8425 01309 9804 +164 +143 306071 077 071 026 00
234230 1936N 09406W 8426 01331 9831 +164 +136 304076 078 073 013 00

maybe up to 85mph

[CrazyC83]

88 kt at FL = 70 kt at the surface. Owing to the pressure fall and SFMR, I would go 75 kt right now.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde just measured 87 kt winds at the surface. That seems a bit high since neither the FL winds nor the SFMR support that, but it might be plausible.

[cpdaman]

Dropsonde just measured 87 kt winds at the surface. That seems a bit high since neither the FL winds nor the SFMR support that, but it might be plausible.

87knots makes sense to me........

the thing is TINY .....a plane flying thru has about what a minute or two sampling his strongest bands....which are prob...a few miles wide.....chances of catching the strongest max sustained winds from flying thru the core ONCE so far...in such a small system are very NIL in my opinion. 971 MB tells me this matches.

you wanna call it 85 mph when ....it could be 100mph plus and making landfall as intensifying? the 87 knot dropsonde and the pressure of 971 in such a small storm tell me ....IMO it's a cat 2.

[KatDaddy]

Karl is a very small TC going through RI. 87kts at the surface is not surprising.

[cycloneye]

Crazy, you were right.

00z Best Track

AL, 13, 2010091700, , BEST, 0, 197N, 941W, 75, 971, HU

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

close to cat 2 .... if not already
003230 1934N 09411W 8422 01310 9800 +164 +120 310068 084 085 033 00
003300 1935N 09411W 8451 01260 9773 +171 +123 299046 048 086 023 03

[CrazyC83]

Based on the SFMR (but noting that the FL winds are still not that high), I would go 80 kt at 11 pm at this rate.

[Wx_Warrior]

JB said nearing Cat 2 now.

[Aric Dunn]

Based on the SFMR (but noting that the FL winds are still not that high), I would go 80 kt at 11 pm at this rate.

I have seen them go with SFMR over FL many times. it all depends on their analysis.

[HurrMark]

It still has about another 12-18 hours before landfall (I would probably tend to lean more to say the former, since the NHC tends to be a tad slow with landfalls). So if it continues to intensify at about 5 mph/3 hours, it has a fairly decent shot of becoming a major...

[CrazyC83]

If they forget the FL winds and stick with the SFMR then it is Cat 2. However, I am not too sure yet.

[Aric Dunn]