ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I have to go but if someone wants to keep saving the radar images and add them the previous loop that would nice. you have to weed through the numbering because it seems random.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/alvarado/?C=M;O=D

updates about 15 to 20 after times of 01,16,31,46 of each hour

[wxman57]

New model run just came out initialized at 85 kts. Looks like Karl is now a Cat 2.

[KatDaddy]

You can see a very small pin-wheel eye on the IR sat. Hopefully this will spare populated areas. This is the worst-case TC scenario...RI close to shore with little time for the general public to prepare.

[Wx_Warrior]

JB said sounds like Derek Jeter was assigning intensity! LOL

[HURAKAN]

latest

[RL3AO]

^^^

Um...uh oh?

[shah8]

Yeah, andrew time...maybe...

[brunota2003]

Looking at that image...recon has yet to sample the SE portion of Karl, and that (and the NE) is where some of the deeper storms are (even though with the motion, the NW is supposed to be the RFQ)

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

[weatherSnoop]

URNT12 KNHC 170217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132010
A. 17/02:01:20Z
B. 19 deg 39 min N
094 deg 17 min W
C. 850 mb 1155 m
D. 88 kt
E. 229 deg 5 nm
F. 304 deg 90 kt
G. 228 deg 8 nm
H. 968 mb
I. 16 C / 1523 m
J. 21 C / 1533 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF302 0413A KARL OB 15
MAX FL WIND 90 KT SW QUAD 01:58:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 02:04:00Z

[brunota2003]

I wonder if the SE quad has stronger winds? Storms are pretty deep down that way too.

[JtSmarts]

Ouch, the dreaded Gray is nearly enclosing his eye.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Personally I don't think I have seen such a thick ring of -80c convection around an eye since Wilma.

[Squarethecircle]

Wow

[hurricaneCW]

It's got a little intense Charley like core. I wonder if that intense eye wall will impact a populated region.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 170239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...HURRICANE KARL HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH 100 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.7N 94.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 19.7N 95.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.7N 96.8W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1200Z 19.5N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 100.0W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Sanibel]

Can't remember any other hurricane like this so deep into BOC.

Stan tried to do this but was too far south.

[brunota2003]

Within the next couple passes from recon, they might have to bump that intensity up. Looks like he just might be about to RI.

[superfly]

Looks like we're going to get another major.