Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

another look...ridge over the SW/W with early fall like weather across the ohio valley/East coast.




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... PNA348.gif

[chrisjslucia]

If this pattern verifies per 18Z GFS with a displaced high to the east this would be very bad news for the eastern gulf coast/FL



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

Is anyone able to clarify what is coming off the S.American coast around 10N62W @018 and then heading N/NNE? (in model above)

[HURAKAN]

HWRF

[gatorcane]

Checking in. I have to say some of the comments I am reading in this thread are getting pretty ridiculous. Lol. First of all we are talking 300+ hours gfs! if you haven't noticed it keeps delaying the development in the western Caribbean. That is typically a flag that it may just be one of those typical long-range phantom storms. Expect the gfs to show something in the long-range every model run in the western Caribbean as we approach October.

That said, I am keeping an eye on the situation because I have anticipated some Caribbean development with some U.S. landfall potential as we move into late September and into October. Not sure if this is the one, or some systems that form in october.

[cycloneye]

The latest on PGI46L

[Ivanhater]

Checking in. I have to say some of the comments I am reading in this thread are getting pretty ridiculous. Lol. First of all we are talking 300+ hours gfs! if you haven't noticed it keeps delaying the development in the western Caribbean. That is typically a flag that it may just be one of those typical long-range phantom storms. Expect the gfs to show something in the long-range every model run in the western Caribbean as we approach October.

That said, I am keeping an eye on the situation because I have anticipated some Caribbean development with some U.S. Landfall potential as we move into late September and into October. Not sure if this is the one, or some systems that form in october.

The development may or may not happen, but it is not a phantom cane. It is currently being tracked internally and is designated PGI46l right now. The feature is already on the map. Also, the Euro has the vorticity moving through the Caribbean as well. Nothing has been "ridiculous" on this thread so far or staff would have been on it. We encourage members to post their thoughts and concerns on Talking tropics, not discourage it. Back to PGI46l, that is currently being tracked by professional meteorologists and amateurs alike.

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

what did everyone go to sleep?

[ROCK]

pulled an Ivan tonight.....Downtown vodka cranberries.....feeling TCish....

[Ivanhater]

Lol rock! Well deserved, I'm sure

The evolution of this system is very interesting. I do think it will wait to develop later down the line, if at all.

[Wx_Warrior]

Am I missing something? Tomorrow a bank holiday? LOL

[cycloneye]

Believe me gator, I would not made this thread if it was not made a test invest that the new project about studying tropical waves did. At link below, you will find plenty of good tools that they are using to analize this area of interest.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI46L.html

[Vortex]

I do think that a td/ts will wait until at least 55w....

[Wx_Warrior]

So which invest is GFS developing? the 1st or 2nd?

[ROCK]

Team meeting bro...big wigs in from Chicago....had to do the cocktails and dinner show.....word to the peeps out there never back out of a dinner with you bosses boss....not wise for future development...


now back to Matt.....last few runs now show a NGOM east runs...though its been delayed it is no phantom storm as some have alluded to....all model are showing it...the trek would make sense for late Sept...but not sold on any trek after 200+hrs....

[Ivanhater]

So which invest is GFS developing? the 1st or 2nd?

The front one.

[ROCK]

not much to see at 84hr...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_084l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

Ok....thru 84hrs it looks as if the 2nd, PGI95L was the stronger of the 2.

[Vortex]

Btw, the gfs this run really is lacking regarding karl

[Wx_Warrior]

According to the link provided by cycloneye, this developing is the 2nd wave.

[Ivanhater]

Ok....thru 84hrs it looks as if the 2nd, PGI95L was the stronger of the 2.

Yeah, that will likely be Lisa...this one that the GFS brings to the Gulf would likely be Matthew. Almost all the models develop the "Lisa" one.