Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

#381 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:32 am

That Caribbean system on the Canadian hits Houston..nothing from this system though but trough digging at 240 hours

#382 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:35 am

yeah i guess its still too far away to see on the long range cmc. will have to see if that new storm on the canadian is just another one if its phantom storms. next up is the euro....

#383 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:36 am

00z cmc 500mb vorticity...you can watch it come into the carribean and end over the central carribean...much like the nogaps and gfs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

#384 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:36 am

Canadian is signaling low pressures in the NW Caribbean and wants to pop out a low..probably too soon, but the signal is there.

#385 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:39 am

looks like the nw caribbean is about to cook something up here in the next few weeks according to several models.

#386 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:02 am

00z euro shows some vorticity in the central caribbean at 240 hours. this might be the same system the gfs is showing, im not sure.

#387 Postby **ColinDelia** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:45 am

GFS. The past 3 runs. This is what it looks like to me by looking at 850 mb vorticity through 168 hours.

12z (oldest) PI46L develops in Caribbean
18z. PGI46L combines with energy in SW Caribbean
0z (most recent). PGI46L or other ITCZ energy combines with energy in SW Caribbean

12z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

18z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

0z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

#388 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:48 am

Euro at 240 indicates a weak reflection over the sw carribean....also notice the deep trough along the east coast....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0091700!!/

#389 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:53 am

00z CMC long range

H+180 canadian on it as well with development SW carribean

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif

#390 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:56 am

H+240 canadian strengthening and moving NE from belize...very deep trough over east coast

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal240.gif

#391 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 3:02 am

euro h+240 better view of low pressure over sw carribean and deep east coast trough

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

#392 Postby **ColinDelia** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 5:44 am

6z GFS.

216 hours (9 days from now)

276 hours

348 hours

Obviously way out there still

KWT · #393 Postby **KWT** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:02 am

The models all seem to have switched focus onto the Monsoon Gyre that develops in the Caribbean....but none are actually developing the same feature at the same time, so at the moment just looks like a broad signal for development and conditions will be favourable, they don't agree on the same trigger so to speak.

Still that development in the SW Caribbean idea is a classic solution and it's going to happen at some point its just where and when I feel...

#394 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:26 am

11.5n/36W appears to be a deeloping LLC with decent cyclonic turning on the early morning vis.A ccording to several models this is the area that heads west into the carribean.

KWT · #395 Postby **KWT** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:34 am

The CMC is by far the most agressive model to develop something out of the gyre, I think its way too quick but something from that type of set-up will develop in the end usually and some of the biggies in October have come from just a set-up...

#396 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:36 am

00Z ukmet also has lowering pressures across the sw carribean in 5-6 days..another sign that this area may become a hot spot over the next few weeks...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

#397 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:51 am

PG146 shows up nice on this image..The developing cyclonic turning with the LLC appears to be about 100 miles to the east of where pg146 is indicated...Visible later should help better to determine if this more organized convection with cyclonic turning will sustain.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... ation.html

#398 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 7:00 am

The upper air pattern per WV also shows an improving pattern aloft as Julia/Igor move away..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

#399 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 7:07 am

6z gfdl run off julia shows the system over the se carribean in 5-6 days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

#400 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Sep 17, 2010 7:08 am

6Z HWRF shows a similar solution to the gfdl

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

Re: Pouch PGI46L - south of Julia, west of PGI45L

Re: Pouch PGI46L - south of Julia, west of PGI45L

Re: Pouch PGI46L - south of Julia, west of PGI45L

Re: Pouch PGI46L - south of Julia, west of PGI45L

Re: Pouch PGI46L - south of Julia, west of PGI45L

Re: Pouch PGI46L - south of Julia, west of PGI45L

Re: Pouch PGI46L - south of Julia, west of PGI45L

Re: Pouch PGI46L - south of Julia, west of PGI45L

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