ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[canes101]

Didn't our "A" storm this season (sorry forgot the name) undergo RI just a few hours before landfall? I remember it looking best immediately after landfall and we were thankful that it didn't have 6 more hours over water. We'll be saying the same thing about Karl. I think both were little tiny storms too.

Yes Epsilon Fan.. It was Alex.. He went from a tropical storm to a cat 2 before Landfall

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... page&size=

[I-wall]

Those are super cold cloud tops, and a tight system for 105...

Latest

This HAS to be a cat 3. Look at those cloud tops!

[Aric Dunn]

very impressive.. easily could be a Cat 3 and still has 6 hours till landfall.. could be stronger..

[bob rulz]

Based on the presentation I would guess 125mph at the MINIMUM right now. It appears to have RI'd just in the last hour or so.

[South Texas Storms]

yeah looks a lot better now than it did an hour ago. may still be rapidly intensifying as i type...

[Simone Lussardi]

Following Fanapi near our side of the world here, but could not forget to keep an eye on Karl, such an intense exploding storm in such a weird area for strong landfalls ! Better our friends in Mexico be ready for this one, is something like northern Vietnam, they are somewhat not prepared for strong storms (this year they had 2 already) because they are "protected" by Hainan island.

In the very latest satellite, it looks to me it could easily make it to cat 4, as a solid ring of very cold convection is surrounding the eye. Notice also that CIMSS raw T numbers:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt13L.html

... has been above 6.0 for quite some updates now, and latest raw T is 6.7, and average CI is 5.9. If it can sustain that number for 6 hours, it may as well land as a borderline category 4/5 hurricane !

[TwisterFanatic]

Wow! Imagine if this had more time over water.

[Simone Lussardi]

Pardon, latest raw T 6.9 as I was writing, it will most probably be upped to Category 4 at the next recon (if any) or by sat estimates.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Karl may be going through RI now based on Sat. presentation but I really have to wonder if it was really going through RI yesterday.

at 11:37z the pressure per VDM was 987 mb. The last Pass this morning at 05:05z had the pressure at 967 mb. So thats 20mb in about 18 hours so roughly 1mb drop per hour. Is that really considered RI?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Pardon, latest raw T 6.9 as I was writing, it will most probably be upped to Category 4 at the next recon (if any) or by sat estimates.

There will be at the very least 1 more mission into Karl which leaves in an hour or 2.

[Simone Lussardi]

Pardon, latest raw T 6.9 as I was writing, it will most probably be upped to Category 4 at the next recon (if any) or by sat estimates.

There will be at the very least 1 more mission into Karl which leaves in an hour or 2.

Thanks, in this case I will be eagerly waiting for this one, I really want to see if the ADT mechanism of CIMSS proof to be as reliable as I think, as for west pacific has done a great job this year.

[AussieMark]

Karl may be going through RI now based on Sat. presentation but I really have to wonder if it was really going through RI yesterday.

at 11:37z the pressure per VDM was 987 mb. The last Pass this morning at 05:05z had the pressure at 967 mb. So thats 20mb in about 18 hours so roughly 1mb drop per hour. Is that really considered RI?

A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.

so 30mb in 6 hrs or 12 hrs either ways.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Karl may be going through RI now based on Sat. presentation but I really have to wonder if it was really going through RI yesterday.

at 11:37z the pressure per VDM was 987 mb. The last Pass this morning at 05:05z had the pressure at 967 mb. So thats 20mb in about 18 hours so roughly 1mb drop per hour. Is that really considered RI?

A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.

so 30mb in 6 hrs or 12 hrs either ways.

So that means that so far theres been no RI with Karl. Theres still another 12+ hours before landfall so Karl could still go through RI today.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 7.0

[Cyclenall]

I agree that there is no way that is a category 2, it looks like a strong category 4 hurricane which is beyond insane. The intensity of it must be at least 110 knots but the raw T numbers are at 6.9...close to CAT5 strength. If the eye was completely cleared out with perfect definition it would be a category 5 hurricane probably.

[AussieMark]

bingo

Code: Select all

  8  19.70  -92.20 09/16/12Z   55   987 TROPICAL STORM
  9  19.70  -92.80 09/16/15Z   65   983 HURRICANE-1
 9A  19.70  -93.30 09/16/18Z   65   983 HURRICANE-1
 10  19.60  -93.70 09/16/21Z   70   977 HURRICANE-1
10A  19.70  -94.10 09/17/00Z   70   971 HURRICANE-1
 11  19.70  -94.50 09/17/03Z   85   968 HURRICANE-2
11A  19.70  -94.80 09/17/06Z   90   967 HURRICANE-2


according to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Karl is estimated at 6.0 which equals 115 kts usually

[Cyclenall]

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 7.0

Pretty much speechless at this value.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I agree that there is no way that is a category 2, it looks like a strong category 4 hurricane which is beyond insane. The intensity of it must be at least 110 knots but the raw T numbers are at 6.9...close to CAT5 strength. If the eye was completely cleared out with perfect definition it would be a category 5 hurricane probably.

the latest raw T # is 7.0

[AussieMark]

where do you get raw T numbers from?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Looking at latest sat image from 7:45 Karl's deep -80c convection seems to be warming and the eye looks to be filling in or hasn't completely cleared out yet and it's all part of the process of clearing it out.