ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[canes101]

7.0??

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

where do you get raw T numbers from?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt13L.html

[canes101]

Never fails... This kind of stuff always seems to happen right AFTER recon planes leave lol

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

7.0??

yeah thats the raw T#. Theres a constraint of 1.7t every 6 hours so thats prob. why the final T# is only 5.9

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

[Crostorm]

zoom

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goe ... latest.jpg

[AussieMark]

based on satellite estimates and Dvork Estimates its at least a 110-115 kt system right now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html has it as 6.0

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt13L.html has it as 5.9

[Aquawind]

Latest

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon will be taking off in about 15 minutes.

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 76
A. 17/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0513A KARL
C. 17/0845Z
D. 21.3N 95.2W
E. 17/1130Z TO 17/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[Kingarabian]

...KARL NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...BEARING DOWN ON THE COAST OF
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 95.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

[canes101]

Code: Select all

[img]http://img190.imageshack.us/img190/5424/latestj.jpg[/img]

zoom

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goe ... latest.jpg

Crostorm thats an incredible image. Thanks for sharing

[canes101]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 170836
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...KARL NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...BEARING DOWN ON THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 95.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

We just knew this was coming..

[AussieMark]

NHC has forcasted a 140 mph landfall

[AussieMark]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 170837
TCDAT3
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC.
SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...
ASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KARL THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE. KARL STILL HAS
THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER VERY WARM WATERS PRIOR
TO LANDFALL LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE
AFTER THIS TIME OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS WESTWARD...OR 270 DEGREES...AT 8
KNOTS. KARL WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THERE
REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF
KARL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION OF 7 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL LATER TODAY.
AFTER THAT TIME A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.7N 95.3W 105 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 19.7N 96.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 19.6N 97.6W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1800Z 19.5N 99.2W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0600Z 19.4N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Aquawind]

120kts!!!! WOW!

[Kingarabian]

Man if Karl had enough time he would of been an easy Cat.5. The eye keeps getting more and more defined.

[canes101]

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC.
SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...
ASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

Actually surprised they went on the "conservative" side seeing how close to land this is

[AussieMark]

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC.
SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...
ASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

Actually surprised they went on the "conservative" side seeing how close to land this is

They have admitted a few times they have been conservative?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

If Recon finds a stronger system then I am sure they will issue a special Advisory

[Cyclenall]

Not only do we have our 5th major hurricane of the season which as of recent is extremely impressive, but Mexico could get hit by a category 4 rapidly strengthening hurricane that just displayed the fastest intensification over the BOC I have ever seen. Over the last two years Mexico has been ravaged by hurricanes/TC's big time.