ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
cyclonic chronic

#1321 Postby cyclonic chronic » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:13 am

wow karl has such an intense inner core. its small enough to wrap up very quickly. now im hoping it'll be like charley in the sense that charley didnt have enough time to go cat 5 on us.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricanewatcher2007
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2008 8:10 pm

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1322 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:15 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.8mb/117.4kt
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1323 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:17 am

I'd be very surprised if recon finds anything lower then 120kts at the moment, its got a stunning presentation and will probably ramp-up right into landfall like several other strong tight hurricanes have done in recent years when moving westwards...like Dean for example...

Amazing hurricane though I agree, I went for 90-95kts but thats WAY to low!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
Terry
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1450
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 8:25 pm
Location: Lakeland and Anna Maria Island, FL
Contact:
Contact Terry

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1324 Postby Terry » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:18 am

LINK

"Petroleos Mexicanos, Latin America’s largest oil producer, closed 14 offshore wells as the storm approached, the company said in an e-mailed statement yesterday."

...

“A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 15 feet (3.7 to 4.6 meters) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall,” the center said. “Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.”
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143877
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1325 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:21 am

Plane at operational altitud. Pass will be shortly.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1326 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:25 am

Will be so interesting to see what recon finds, hopefully the system stops wobbling south ofwest becasue every wobble brings more people towards the southern eyewall which is probably very powerful indeed...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143877
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1327 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:40 am

Last set was with plenty of flags. :(
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Hurricanewatcher2007
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2008 8:10 pm

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1328 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:43 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 944.2mb/119.8kt
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricanewatcher2007
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2008 8:10 pm

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1329 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:47 am

Ok something isn't adding up with Recon! They are almost right out side of the eye in the northeast quad and yet the strongest winds so far is only 66kts and the pressure is still at 696mb!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1330 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:49 am

Yeah not sure the recon is providing useful information here...we'll have to wait and see!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
Meso
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1609
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: South Africa
Contact:
Contact Meso

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1331 Postby Meso » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:49 am

Was thinking the same thing... What the hell?! Did they just pass through the NE eyewall and find maximum winds to support a 90kt storm... So very confused.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#1332 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:50 am

952 mb, measured winds do not go with the pressure
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143877
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1333 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:51 am

There are many flags in the last two sets.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 64
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1334 Postby x-y-no » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:52 am

Meso wrote:Was thinking the same thing... What the hell?! Did they just pass through the NE eyewall and find maximum winds to support a 90kt storm... So very confused.


Remember, this storm is moving west so the strongest quadrant will be NW.

Still, I would have expected more than that in the NE quadrant.
0 likes   
Top
cyclonic chronic

#1335 Postby cyclonic chronic » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:52 am

the obs were quite flagged and its the 1st penetration.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1336 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:53 am

Yeah but 99kts is way too low given the pressure of 952mbs and the tight core, according to the recon winds its actually weakened quite alot compared to the last flight...which makes zero sense!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
Hurricanewatcher2007
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2008 8:10 pm

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1337 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:54 am

x-y-no wrote:
Meso wrote:Was thinking the same thing... What the hell?! Did they just pass through the NE eyewall and find maximum winds to support a 90kt storm... So very confused.


Remember, this storm is moving west so the strongest quadrant will be NW.

Still, I would have expected more than that in the NE quadrant.


Last recon mission the Northeast quad was the strongest:

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 105 KT NE QUAD 05:09:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 86 KTS NE QUAD 05:08:50Z
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1338 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:55 am

Mind you that 99kts was a surface estimate which may not be as far out....but the FL winds only got upto 85kts...and thats really questionable...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#1339 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:55 am

Lets wait for the VDM and see
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143877
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: KARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1340 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:59 am

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests