ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[dexterlabio]

Has this one made landfall already? I am SO impressed, this was like a weakened TS after passing through Yucatan then now a major hurricane!!! What is the expected intensity during landfall? This could be a bad CAT4 cane as it hits land.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

000
URNT12 KNHC 171156
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132010
A. 17/11:45:00Z
B. 19 deg 35 min N
095 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2717 m
D. 99 kt
E. 047 deg 6 nm
F. 135 deg 87 kt
G. 047 deg 6 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 12 C / 3027 m
J. 17 C / 3045 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF301 0513A KARL OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 92 KT SW QUAD 11:48:20Z
;

[KWT]

I think given the surface estimates still upoort 100-105kts it probably won't be a 4 before landfall but its still a very powerful hurricane not to be messed with at all...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I think given the surface estimates still upoort 100-105kts it probably won't be a 4 before landfall but its still a very powerful hurricane not to be messed with at all...

Theres still the northwest quad to go through!

[AussieMark]

looks like it looks better on satellite than the reality.

[cyclonic chronic]

i agree, no matter what they find its still a bad day for those in veracruz. recon also could've missed the strongest fl winds. its a small core and finding the strongest winds might be hard to do.

[brunota2003]

I hope they can make a few more passes before this beast moves too close to land. Looks like it very well might strengthen all the way up to (and possibly through just the very beginning of) landfall.

[KWT]

I think given the surface estimates still upoort 100-105kts it probably won't be a 4 before landfall but its still a very powerful hurricane not to be messed with at all...

Theres still the northwest quad to go through!

Yeah thats true but its not going to be much if any stronger then the NE quadrant, last recon flight the NE quadrant was the strongest part of the system and I suspect thats the same...

The NHC will likely discount those FL readings and go with the SMFR which shows 99kts, or 100kts more or less...

[KWT]

Worth noting veracruz will very likely have to deal with the southern eyewall and may even get the full force of the W.Eyewall and get the eye feature as well...either way its going to be close.

[brunota2003]

found a couple of stations run by the U.S. EPA and the Mexican Government in Veracurz Harbor, Mexico...and Sacrifice Island, Mexico...they are both about to get run flat over by this beast, and I hope they are both as sturdy as NOAA Buoy 41044 was!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=VERV4

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SACV4

[cyclonic chronic]

is anyone else having problems getting to the radar web site? maybe too much traffic

[hurricaneCW]

I think Karl peaked before recon got to him. The cloud tops have warmed, the eye has become more cloud filled. He's still likely a Category 3, but I think he was approaching Category 4 status just a few hours ago.

[AussieMark]

Worth noting veracruz will very likely have to deal with the southern eyewall and may even get the full force of the W.Eyewall and get the eye feature as well...either way its going to be close.

yeah this will be bad for Veracruz

hurricanes have come within 60 miles of Veracruz in the following years: 1892, 1931, 1950, 1955 and 2005 so its not effected very often I hope they are prepared.

[KWT]

Yeah AM but this hurricane is probably the strongest of the lot of them, will probably have a major hurricane make landfall very near a major city, I just hoped they've had enough time to prepare because many probably weren't expecting a 100-110kts hurricane on top of them when they went to sleep last night...

[dexterlabio]

wait then what do those 6.0-6.5 t-numbers posted here mean? are those preliminary estimates or totally unofficial? I though this was around 115-120kts based on what I've seen here, but it seems that it is a CAT3. Well, this doesn't need to be a CAT4 to impress us, being close to land and intensifying at a rapid pace I can say this is very impressive.

[KWT]

The thing to remember is this is the strongest ever hurricane for this part of the BoC so its going to be a brutal hurricane regardless of whether its a 4 or a 3 in the end.

[alan1961]

is anyone else having problems getting to the radar web site? maybe too much traffic

Yes its not working for me either cyclonic..it dont take
much to knock mexican radar out.

[AussieMark]

The thing to remember is this is the strongest ever hurricane for this part of the BoC so its going to be a brutal hurricane regardless of whether its a 4 or a 3 in the end.

Janet in 1955 was the previous strongest for the area



This looks to be stronger than that

[brunota2003]

On a side note, it was inside Hurricane Janet that we lost the only Recon aircraft in the Atlantic Basin, Snowcloud Five.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hunter4.asp