Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[South Texas Storms]

Does the Cape Verde season run all year long?

no it begins in july and starts to wind down around this time of year

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

WOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 730 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...ON
HURRICANE JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES
...AND ON HURRICANE KARL...LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ABOUT 50
MILES NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[KWT]

The models are pretty keen on this area developing, will probably be the last true CV storm IMO if it does manage to develop, which given how bullish most of the models are seems quie likely.

Should recurve out quite quickly...

[hurricaneCW]

What's the one that won't recurve?

[KWT]

Probably anything that gets into the CAribbean won't recurve, or if it does it'll be right into land.

This is the system behind the one the models tried but are now moving away from developing. its got good spin on it already so a pretty high chance it develops in the end IMO.

[chrisjslucia]

Models reported on the CIMMS Predict site are showing this make a strong turn North West or North between 30W and 35W:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#

[HURAKAN]

sat24.com and the EUMETSAT site both show that this system already has a nice circulation. The only inhibitor that I see is a recent SAL outbreak.

[HURAKAN]

SAL

[HURAKAN]

vorticity is quite strong

[Frank2]

I agree, KWT - despite the hot weather still in the southern plains, Fall is already making itself felt in the Canadian border states, and La Nina or no, considering the very consistent trough in the western Atantic, it looks like the CV threat will hopefully end pretty close to the normal time, which is usually before the end of this month...

As for what will happen in the southern Gulf and Caribbean that remains to be seen, but if the pattern of the past few months continues it'll probably mean more systems following the tracks of Alex and Karl, per the 2007 season...

Frank

[CourierPR]

I agree, KWT - despite the hot weather still in the southern plains, Fall is already making itself felt in the Canadian border states, and La Nina or no, considering the very consistent trough in the western Atantic, it looks like the CV threat will hopefully end pretty close to the normal time, which is usually before the end of this month...

As for what will happen in the southern Gulf and Caribbean that remains to be seen, but if the pattern of the past few months continues it'll probably mean more systems following the tracks of Alex and Karl, per the 2007 season...

Frank

Considering that as we get into the later part of September and early October stronger troughs sweep into the deep South, I don't think we will see more systems following the tracks of Alex and Karl. The tracks will probably lift more to the north per climatology.

[otowntiger]

I agree, KWT - despite the hot weather still in the southern plains, Fall is already making itself felt in the Canadian border states, and La Nina or no, considering the very consistent trough in the western Atantic, it looks like the CV threat will hopefully end pretty close to the normal time, which is usually before the end of this month...

As for what will happen in the southern Gulf and Caribbean that remains to be seen, but if the pattern of the past few months continues it'll probably mean more systems following the tracks of Alex and Karl, per the 2007 season...

Frank

So if the Cape Verde Season is just about shut down and anything in the Caribbean and gulf is only going to hit Mexico, then are you saying that we here in FLorida are sitting pretty? I think there are a whole lot of people that will disagree.

[ConvergenceZone]

So if the Cape Verde Season is just about shut down and anything in the Caribbean and gulf is only going to hit Mexico, then are you saying that we here in FLorida are sitting pretty? I think there are a whole lot of people that will disagree.

I'm still waiting for evidence that suggests that the gulf states or Florida will be hit with a strong storm the rest of this season....Yes, it is possible that we MAY be in the clear for anything strong hitting the U.S. the rest of the year... IF I see the pattern changing, I may change my mind, but for now, nope....

[Frank2]

I think Wilma reminded us all that we can never be sure of how the [Florida] hurricane season will turn out, and that's why I said that as far as the Caribbean and southern Gulf are concerned we won't know the outcome until the season is over...

Of course many on this site often disagree with what I post (though glad that I stuck to my opinion when it came to Gaston), but perhaps it's after you work in the weather business that you realize that it's usually a very matter of fact situation (media hype aside) - either the weather is out there or it isn't, and trying to add our own desires to it doesn't change the outcome, since the laws of nature always react and move as they were made to, as they do throughout the entire Universe, for that matter - though prayers always help...

Frank

[cyclonic chronic]

well put

[Weatherfreak000]

I see no signs of the CV season coming to an end whatsoever...if anything the two new areas we are watching is proof of that...I want to believe models suggest at the very least we will see the L storm. I think the only reason we havent is because the Atlantic Ocean as a whole is so crowded by large, intense hurricanes there just isn't enough room. However, Julia has been moving briskly now which has led to the SAL outbreak I would guess.


Geez, remember when we used to worry about SAL? When you look at the SAL maps and see Igor and how that storm has moistened the environment it makes you wanna laugh at our impatience. That being said, I am on the fence but in the next 24 hours Julia will move out, the SAL impact will lessen and hopefully we will have our next invest and be in business.

On one last note, when's the last time you saw three hurricane symbols AND a fresh yellow circle on the NHC Map? Mindboggling.

[HURAKAN]

Another shot of the SAL

[HURAKAN]

Better shot of the SAL