ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[KWT]

Yep I think Hurkan they are going probably get a direct hit by the eye and landfall will be there...not good news!!

Things going to go rapidly down the pan for them!

[HURAKAN]

South of the track

[artist]

well the Veracruz govt. tv station is finally bringing up how dangerous Karl is. I hope everyone there is prepared.

[plasticup]

http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/1047/46860974.jpg

South of the track

I guess we're close enough that wobbles will govern his landfall. This is going to be horrendous.

[wxman57]

I measure the center of Karl at only 25 miles NE of Veracruz. They're still reporting wind under 20 kts. I think the center will pass 10-15 miles north of Veracruz, so they'll be in the outer eyewall.

[plasticup]

Is recon going to arrive before landfall?

[wxman57]

Is recon going to arrive before landfall?

Recon has been in Karl for the past hour. They're finding winds likely just under 100 kts. With hurricane force winds extending only out to 15 miles south of the center, it's possible that those hurricane force winds may just graze Veracruz on the north side.

[plasticup]

Looks like they are headed back though.

[artist]

the tv station just stated it is coming in tomorrow. Is that right??At least that is how I interpreted it, not knowing the language but for a few words I recognize.


(geeesh, I need to reread before posting, corrected to make sense! )

[plasticup]

114 kt flight level winds.

[Cyclone1]

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt

118kt flight level per this VDM.

[cyclonic chronic]

according to the pressure readings, it seems that karl isnt' deepening as much as earlier this a.m. it probably doesnt mean much to the people of veracruz, but at least its not rapidly intensifying right before landfall

[Simone Lussardi]

Oh my God... it seems now the right readings are coming in from Recon, pressure at the station is 998 hpa, have to drop about 40~45 hpa in just ~25 miles, I cannot imagine how rapidly the winds will pick up in the whole area. Another small south wobble and it will rage across the whole Veracruz...

[littlevince]

Even more south of the track

[Aquawind]

Well for such a tiny system they are getting pelted with rain well ahead of the core.. There is going to be some serious damage from Karl. I am feeling so lucky thus far this year with all of the energy not being released on the US mainland..thus far.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[plasticup]

118 FL and SFMR of 92 kts. Doesn't look like he is going to make Cat 4 before landfall, but hopefully that forecast will scare people into preparing as best they can.

[cyclonic chronic]

yeah the people in veracruz will have their ears popping like mad because the pressure change is so fast. faster than being on an airplane.

[CrazyC83]

118 FL and SFMR of 92 kts. Doesn't look like he is going to make Cat 4 before landfall, but hopefully that forecast will scare people into preparing as best they can.

Those would support a 100 kt intensity. Probably peaked at 110 kt last night I am guessing. Even a strong Cat 2 is nothing to mess around with though. Landfall looks to be right over Veracruz or the northern suburbs.

[mf_dolphin]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SACV4 showing 32kts gusting to 38kts

[artist]

http://wwitv.com/tv_channels/8431.htm
to watch it I had to hit 141k on the right hand side and it opened in my real player. (Veracruz govt. tv now talking about Karl continuously now)