TC Landfall on Upper Texas Coast After Mid-September

[Ptarmigan]

Usually by mid September, the risk of tropical cyclone making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast decreases. However, there are no guarantees it does not happen. Also, since Cape Verde is winding down gradually and moves to the west towards the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, there could be a possibility this season could see a landfall. In fact, from 1870 to 2010 (140 years), 15 tropical cyclones made landfall on and after September 15th.

Code: Select all

Hurricane 3 (Indianola Hurricane of 1875)   09/16/75
Hurricane 3 (1882)   09/15/82
Hurricane 10 (1886)   10/12/86
Tropical Storm 4 (1895)   10/06/95
Tropical Storm 6 (1898)   09/28/98
Tropical Storm 5 (1938)   10/17/38
Tropical Storm 6 (1940)   09/23/40
Tropical Storm 1 (1941)   09/15/41
Hurricane 2 (1941)   09/23/41
Hurricane 10 (1949)   10/04/49
Cindy   09/17/63
Felice   09/15/70
Jerry   10/15/89
Ivan   09/23/04
Rita   09/24/05


Total
15 Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

Hurricanes (Non-Major)
1882 Hurricane 3
1886 Hurricane 10
1963 Cindy
1989 Jerry

Major Hurricanes
1875 Indianola Hurricane
1941 Hurricane 2
1949 Hurricane 10
2005 Rita

Latest Tropical Cyclone
Tropical Storm 5 (1938) October 17, 1938

Latest Hurricane
Jerry (1989) October 15, 1989

Latest Major Hurricane
Hurricane 10 (1949) October 4, 1949

Probability For Landfall On and After September 15th on Upper Texas Coast
1 Tropical Cyclone=Every 9.3 years
1 Hurricane=Every 17.5 years
1 Major Hurricane=Every 35 years

2 Tropical Cyclones=Every 86.5 years
2 Hurricanes=Every 306.3 years
2 Major Hurricanes=Every 1225 years

3 Tropical Cyclones=Every 804.4 years
3 Hurricanes=Every 5,359,4 years
3 Major Hurricanes=Every 42,875 years

This is based on averages spread out over 140 years. As usual, nature does not care for probabilities. There have been more than one tropical cyclone making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast on and after September 15th and that happened in 1941. Tropical Storm 1 (1941) and Hurricane 2 (1941), which would happen every 325.5 years.

There is a better chance of a tropical cyclone making landfall on and after September 15 than seeing single digit temperatures that happen about every 30 years. No tropical cyclone has ever been recorded to make landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in late October to November. There was a close call with Hurricane Jeanne in 1980, but got pushed away by a cold front in November of 1980. However, records are only kept up to 1851. It could be possible that tropical cyclones have made landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in late October to November.

[South Texas Storms]

good post ptarmigan. i dont think our hurricane season is done in texas yet, especially with the la nina were in and the activity about to move into the caribbean and gulf imo. i dont think that were out of the woods here until around oct. 20, but thats just me.

[ravyrn]

If you're going to include Rita you should include Beulah also. It made landfall just south of the Rio Grand but moved up into Texas before hooking back south into Mexico. It dropped a ton of rain and was cat 3 while in the valley.

[Ptarmigan]

If you're going to include Rita you should include Beulah also. It made landfall just south of the Rio Grand but moved up into Texas before hooking back south into Mexico. It dropped a ton of rain and was cat 3 while in the valley.

Beulah was a South Texas Hurricane and certainly would like to add all Texas hurricane for statistical results. Quite a rainmaker it was one, one of the largest.