Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

11.6N/36.7W looks very suspect and on the hi-res visibe 1145Z some banding and an LLC are clearly indicated...This was the area that the GFS had developing for many runs..Should be interesting to see if it sustains itself or open back up...

[lonelymike]

Gee what a surprise since their all based on their daddy the GFS

[Vortex]

here's the 12Z GFS from yesterday. Notice at H+24 which is 8am this morning it has an L in the exact area of where we have a developing LLC this morning according to the morning vis.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[lonelymike]

Just a swirl of clouds it appears. No evidence of LLC

[Frank2]

Current long-range discussion from SJU:

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TO A NOMINAL LEVEL
FOR THE REST OF [NEXT] WEEK AS NO MAJOR LOW LEVEL FEATURES ARE
OBSERVED AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

[CourierPR]

Current long-range discussion from SJU:

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE TO A NOMINAL LEVEL
FOR THE REST OF [NEXT] WEEK AS NO MAJOR LOW LEVEL FEATURES ARE
OBSERVED AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSAGE ON
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HURRICANE IGOR WILL BEGIN MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BEHIND IT NOW THROUGH SUNDAY[b]. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WEDNESDAY...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY.[/b] HIGHER PRESSURE AND WEAKER WINDS RETURN THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

I pasted in the first paragraph from the disco. Note the bold part.

[Portastorm]

C'mon Frank ... you needed to tell us the rest of the story!

[floridasun78]

but i see nhc watching other one south cape verde not got area yet with circle

[djmikey]

From a Houston meteorologist blog:

We're not done yet
The long range forecast models indicate another storm could develop in the far eastern Atlantic next week. While that storm might not make it into the Gulf, the models have been consistently showing a more powerful storm entering the Gulf of Mexico the last week of September.

[Frank2]

C'mon Frank ... you needed to tell us the rest of the story!

Oops - I missed that part (wasn't wearing my specs)...

That or it was a case of auto-denial...

LOL

[Blown Away]

Current long-range discussion from SJU:
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HURRICANE IGOR WILL BEGIN MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BEHIND IT NOW THROUGH SUNDAY [b]. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WEDNESDAY...[b]PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY.[/b][/b] HIGHER PRESSURE AND WEAKER WINDS RETURN THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

I pasted in the first paragraph from the disco. Note the bold part.

I don't know how significant it is but I think the disco from yesterday said this low pressure would pass "well" south and now it's "just" south?? So maybe this low pressure will be gaining more latitude as it enters the Caribbean.

[Vortex]

12G GFS energy arrives on the scene from the east over SW carribean in about a week


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[cycloneye]

Yes,is a combination from pouch PGI46L and energy from Southamerica that goes into the SW Caribbean, it appears that way.

[Tireman4]

From a Houston meteorologist blog:

We're not done yet
The long range forecast models indicate another storm could develop in the far eastern Atlantic next week. While that storm might not make it into the Gulf, the models have been consistently showing a more powerful storm entering the Gulf of Mexico the last week of September.

Which Houston meteorologist?

[Vortex]

12Z once again has a strengthening storm headed into gulf with a trough to the west digging..looks like this run it will head towards the FL panhandle...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312l.gif

[cycloneye]

Stalls in the middle of GOM and at the end moves west towards Texas.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[Vortex]

12Z GFS has this system meandering over western gulf...something is going to eventually form more than likely the devils in the details...It sure looks like pg145 is looking increasingly suspect this afternoon...The vis gives a clear indication of better organization to the convection with cyclonic turning noted..Also it's now moving W...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[Vortex]

12Z nogaps..you can follow the system clearly thru day 5...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 14&set=All

[Ivanhater]

Lol...we have almost every scenario in play here. Once again, all Gommers in play. Everyone should be watching.