Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

End of the GFS steering pattern would suggest erratic movement..nothing to push it one way or the other.

[Vortex]

countdown till the 18z

[Dean4Storms]

That made little sense, I know stranger things have happened. I just can't see a trough digging all the way down to TX and moving eastward would not pick up a TC in the Gulf and turn it toward the NE and out across the SE US if not the FL Peninsula!

[Wx_Warrior]

Goodness...all giddy over the gfs. that run is very strange. Remember, gfs had lots of trouble with Karl, which is a Cat 3. It jumped on late. Many were making fun of the model not too long ago.

What did 0z EURO show?

EDIT: here it is:

[Wx_Warrior]

Here's a question for you Ivan....

What is the latest dates these gom states have been hit with a hurricane? Texas/LA/AL/GA/MISS

[Ivanhater]

Once again, the Euro Ensemble Mean is showing us strong signals of a storm in the Western Caribbean. Many ensemble members of the Euro are developing this which translates on the mean map.

[Ivanhater]

Here's a question for you Ivan....

What is the latest dates these gom states have been hit with a hurricane? Texas/LA/AL/GA/MISS

Great question and one I would have to do some research on. I'm pretty sure Texas has been hit in October before, not sure how late in the month.

[Tireman4]

Here's a question for you Ivan....

What is the latest dates these gom states have been hit with a hurricane? Texas/LA/AL/GA/MISS

I know we (Houston-Galveston) got hit by Hurricane Jerry October 16, 1989

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Jerry_(1989)

[Tireman4]

Upper Texas Gulf Coast Hits....

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109434&hilit=

[Ivanhater]

Canadian Ensemble mean can't get much louder than this.

[BigA]

Does the Canadian ensembles run at just 00z or 12z as well?

[Vortex]

46 has a nice spin this afternoon...remeber for 20+ runs the GFS indicated exactly what is going on right now...Closed low approaching 40W..It sorta abandoned that 5 runs ago but looking good on the vis right now. There is no reason this will not continue west(HWRF,GFDL,NOGAPS) and into more favorable conditions in the coming days...Should be in the islands in about 5 days....




http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... ation.html

[ROCK]

I see the GFS is still on board but still delaying development in the long range....though the CMC is creepy ever so slowly into the mid range at 240hr.....interesting times ahead...


BTW- Karl sending some squalling weather into Galveston....Nice on shore breeze and some rain....just amazed at something so far south can still fling up some weather this way...

[Ivanhater]

Does the Canadian ensembles run at just 00z or 12z as well?

Both, but it takes a couple hours after the operational run for the ensemble mean to update.

[djmikey]

From a Houston meteorologist blog:

We're not done yet
The long range forecast models indicate another storm could develop in the far eastern Atlantic next week. While that storm might not make it into the Gulf, the models have been consistently showing a more powerful storm entering the Gulf of Mexico the last week of September.

Which Houston meteorologist?

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

[ROCK]

Does the Canadian ensembles run at just 00z or 12z as well?

Both, but it takes a couple hours after the operational run for the ensemble mean to update.

you should be in class!! slacker....

[Vortex]

I think 46 will get mentioned by the NHC later tonight if the trends continue...I noticed the circulation developing in ernest around 7am est today..They usually will hold off for about 12 hours before making an acknowlegement in the TWO..I suspect maybe 8pm but more likely with the 2am package...

[Vortex]

Maybe we should clean up the title abit...just my 2 cents.

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[Vortex]

Nice image there Luis..