Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 665 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...ON
HURRICANE JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES
...AND ON HURRICANE KARL...LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT
15 MILES WEST OF VERACRUZ.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

This might be the last hurrah for Cape Verde, but conditions still look good at the moment. It might stay low enough to not get hit by the SAL.

[punkyg]

How does this disturbance look at the moment?

[Weatherfreak000]

Vorticity maps are favoring this area. Seems at this point they should increase chances because that's some solid vorticity shaping up. It would appear the vorticity associated with the other test invest is still intact, it may take longer for that to develop it needs the hurricanes to exit stage left.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...ON
HURRICANE JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES ...AND ON TROPICAL STORM KARL...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MEXICO ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF PUEBLA.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS

[Weatherfreak000]

vorticity has continued to increase and convection is holding steady...i'm surprised by the lack of interest in this developing area.

Even more surprising having a hurricane, a ts, and a td is slow for this month so far.

[Florida1118]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL
STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1525 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS WRITTEN THE LAST
ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL...LOCATED INLAND OVER MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERACRUZ.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN

[ColinDelia]

Unless there is a significant change in the next few days there is some SAL dry air in PGI45L's future, 48-60 hours from now.
This assumes the track given by the GFS, ECMWF and UKMet which is about the same as seen here.

[bob rulz]

Surprised they haven't put an INVEST tag on this yet.

[abajan]

Surprised they haven't put an INVEST tag on this yet.

That’s probably going to happen within the next couple of hours. (Well, in Julia’s case, soon after the odds went to 30% it was declared an invest. At least, that’s what I think.)

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps, is invest 94L Thread is closed.