Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[Ivanhater]

Does the Canadian ensembles run at just 00z or 12z as well?

Both, but it takes a couple hours after the operational run for the ensemble mean to update.

you should be in class!! slacker....

No class on Fridays

[Vortex]

We've waited for 5 days to figure what we would be tracking west towards the carribean..I think we know what that is now...As Igor and Julia exit the picture ridging will be well established so this certainly looks carribean bound...Intensity wise I wouldnt be surprised abit to have a modest TS move through the windwards on tuesday/wednesday...HWRF has been on it, Nogaps shows it, and the GFS the most agressive for about 5 days with a storm into the windwards backed off the other day...At present it has potential and it's heading west for the next 7-10...

[ROCK]

those are some impressive pics as it looks like slow organization....I wonder why the wave off Africa gets 10% and this gets nothing....I havent been watching much more than the models of late....EURO is coming out in a few minutes...should be telling...

[Ivanhater]

those are some impressive pics as it looks like slow organization....I wonder why the wave off Africa gets 10% and this gets nothing....I havent been watching much more than the models of late....EURO is coming out in a few minutes...should be telling...

I'm more interested in the Euro ensembles..I think they paint a better picture in this range.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro out to 168 hours and the vorticity is much stronger than any other run of the Euro

[Ivanhater]

Euro jumps on board

192

[Ivanhater]

216..even stronger

[Ivanhater]

240 hours...Stalling in the NW Caribbean

[ROCK]

kinda of jacked up run at the end.. ..typically you wouldnt have it stall in the NW carib....I guess what we take out of this is in the almost med range the EURO is jumping on board with something in the carib...whereas last run it wasnt to keen on the idea....

[Wx_Warrior]

[otowntiger]

It looks like that model (ECMWF?) is showing NOTHING on day 10, LOL!

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow: It looks like that model (ECMWF?) is showing NOTHING on day 10, LOL!

But it clearly is

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro Ensemble Mean is consistently on it

[Vortex]

All the globals now are indicating lowering pressures across the western carribean over the next 7-10 days...Any energy coming in from the east may serve to act as the spark to ignite genesis. Or we may get something organized from 46 and just take advantage of favorable environmental conditions. 18 Z rolls in 30...Looking forward to the 00z Globals overnight...

[Vortex]

12Z Canadian ensembles all over it regarding lower pressures across the western carribean...

H+216




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... TNA216.gif

[hurricaneCW]

So would the system end up like Karl and go to Mexico or get pulled further north. I see the gulf ridge is displaced to the east more so than right now.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me on that 500mb EURO EM run that there is a good bit of ridging over all of eastern MX so I would expect a stall in the western Carib and an eventual NW motion around the SW periphery of the SE CONUS ridge. Much will depend on how deep the system gets in the western Carib, a deeper system the more northward. If a trough advances into the picture from the NW there is no way this doesn't get turned northward or/and eastward IMO!

[South Texas Storms]

18z gfs shows a landfall just north of tampa so back to another florida landfall on the 18z.

[lonelymike]

Looks to me on that 500mb EURO EM run that there is a good bit of ridging over all of eastern MX so I would expect a stall in the western Carib and an eventual NW motion around the SW periphery of the SE CONUS ridge. Much will depend on how deep the system gets in the western Carib, a deeper system the more northward. If a trough advances into the picture from the NW there is no way this doesn't get turned northward or/and eastward IMO!

Agree with Dean here except for two caveats:
1. GFS has done a good job depicting the origins of the system...(I can't believe I said that ) but the Euro does a better job depicting the evolution of the system IMO
2. Timing seems to be an issue with the GFS with the last run at 300 plus hours whereas the Euro depicts a broad area of low pressure in 240.
So we'll just have to wait and see. This ridge over the northern gulf isn't breaking down anytime soon.