Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Florida1118]

I dont think thats our system Brent.

[Brent]

I dont think thats our system Brent.

LOL fail, I didn't even notice the other thread. This whole CV thing is getting old.

[Florida1118]

I dont think thats our system Brent.

LOL fail, I didn't even notice the other thread. This whole CV thing is getting old.

Ha, i know I was about to do the same thing and then I was like wait...Thats Pouch something or other. The tropics are confusing enough as it is!

[Weatherfreak000]

I gotta admit I don't really see what everyone is excited about, vorticity is weakening in that area. It hardly even qualifies as a test invest and it hardly even has an identity anymore.


Even so, I think SAL and other hurricane interference is the culprit, and as ive been saying I am confident we will see at least the L storm between these two test invests.

[South Texas Storms]

00z euro shows some vorticity moving through the central caribbean at 240 hours.

[blp]

00z Euro showing better vorticity on this. I am starting to believe this is a go. Still way out but the GFS, CMC and Euro are on board and they are best we have.

[Dean4Storms]

I think it is pretty ludicrous and nothing more than being a troll to ignore multiple global model forecasts depicting a storm near the end of the month for multiple runs now and coming onto a weather board and call others ridiculous for discussing the models.

[Vortex]

We now have support from all the globals of a developing cyclone over the western carribean in 8-10 days...Here's the canadian long range...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal228.gif

[Portastorm]

We now have support from all the globals of a developing cyclone over the western carribean in 8-10 days...Here's the canadian long range...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal228.gif

Yep Vortex and as wxman57 opined in the "NW Caribbean" thread, it looks like activity in the Caribbean and Gulf will be ramping up quite soon.

[Ivanhater]

Yall are slacking

Here is the 06 GFS

[Aquawind]

I still see nothing that changes the pattern other than climatology that suggests things always pick up in this part of the basin this time of year..

[Portastorm]

I still see nothing that changes the pattern other than climatology that suggests things always pick up in this part of the basin this time of year..

Really? You're serious?

Monsoonal development in the EPAC than into the western part of the Atlantic basin = check
Every medium to long range model showing some sort of development in the Caribbean in the next 7-10 days = check
Persistent ridging in the SE US = check
Rising MJO values throughout the western part of the Atlantic basin = check

I know at least three of these four criteria have not been seen lately ... so that screams pattern change to me.

[ROCK]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Yall are slacking

Here is the 06 GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... m.gifquote]


Oh I saw it....choked on my red bull....

[Aquawind]

Other than the monsoon in the EPAC..no

Models just read weather ..they don't make it..
Ridging is normal in the SE USA..
MJO....is a hit n miss thing..

So I am guessing the monsson is the fly in the ointment..other than that it's all normal for this time of year.

[Portastorm]

Other than the monsoon in the EPAC..no

Models just read weather ..they don't make it..
Ridging is normal in the SE USA..
MJO....is a hit n miss thing..

So I am guessing the monsson is the fly in the ointment..other than that it's all normal for this time of year.

What is "normal" and what is actually happening in the real weather can be two different things. At least in my uneducated opinion I think most of the criteria I posted earlier are new developments and things we are not seeing now.

I guess this is an "agree to disagree" thing.

[Aquawind]

I am not trying to be difficult.. Other than the monsoon from the EPAC... I don't see the pattern changer..climatolgy suggests development here so surprises..

[Steve H.]

I agree that models have been showing some Caribbean development, but it may be a week or two out. What concerns me is that we have been seeing development in the Atlantic in less than ideal atmospheric conditions. When the MJO flips to a moister more favorable condition, I think we'll have an October to remember. Fortunately, storms like Earl and Igor have been mopping up a lot of energy and keeping storms at bay to the east (with the exception of the Leewards and Bermuda of course). I think Igor will remain cat 2 when it hits Bermuda due to some dry air intrusion, which will make its impact on Bermuda less than it could be getting. But we are still in September and have a lot of tropical development ahead of us. Hopefully fall will come early and bring the fronts sweeping off to the south and east. But we have a long way to go IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

That is a large hurricane in the Gulf if the 06Z GFS turns out to be correct!

[ConvergenceZone]

I gotta admit I don't really see what everyone is excited about, vorticity is weakening in that area. It hardly even qualifies as a test invest and it hardly even has an identity anymore.


Even so, I think SAL and other hurricane interference is the culprit, and as ive been saying I am confident we will see at least the L storm between these two test invests.

Then maybe the monster in the Gulf one of the models is showing is another area that will form in the carib....

[Steve H.]

Interesting bell-shaped high pressure systems setting up over Bermuda out in 5 days. Looks like a pattern that would drive anything in the Central Atlantic westward should we see any development. 12z GFS hinting at some slow development during the week.