Global model runs discussion

[BigB0882]

The US has been lucky?

I recall getting hammered by Rita & Ike since 2005. Not been that lucky in SETX.

Right! I remember Gustav and Katrina very well! Rita gave baton rouge more rain than most places directly in it's path so we felt that one too.

[Florida1118]

The US has been lucky?

I recall getting hammered by Rita & Ike since 2005. Not been that lucky in SETX.

Right! I remember Gustav and Katrina very well! Rita gave baton rouge more rain than most places directly in it's path so we felt that one too.

And lets not forget us Floridians. I recall 2004...you know the rest. Well, If Lisa is destined to form in the Caribbean, theres only 2 ways out. Through the Islands, or Through the US. Not looking good out at 300hrs+...but is is 300hrs away.

[Tireman4]

The US has been lucky?

I recall getting hammered by Rita & Ike since 2005. Not been that lucky in SETX.

Right! I remember Gustav and Katrina very well! Rita gave baton rouge more rain than most places directly in it's path so we felt that one too.

Gosh, since I went through both ( Ike and Rita)...boy did I love em..LOL

[Stormcenter]

I'll take any model over the GFS 10 days out. IMO

[ColinDelia]

GFS 384. Lalalalalalalalala ....

[Frank2]

GFS 384. Lalalalalalalalala ....

Right - 80% fiction, 10% baloney, 10% real fruit juice...

LOL

[HurrMark]

When I say the US is lucky, I am not trying to diminish the storms that have struck land, and the pain and suffering that took place. What I am saying is that it is lucky because climatologically speaking, given the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes spinning around the Atlantic over the last 15 years, the expected value of the number of storms that would theoretically strike the US is higher than what actually occured.

[cycloneye]

If GFS is right,there will be more on the pipe for early October.

12z GFS loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

[HURRICANELONNY]

Jeff Masters said on his site that the GFS & Nogaps have backed off on development in the Carribean. While Crown weather is still saying development. Did the GFS. Which really is crap that far out. Back off. Or now is it in October 2011?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS shows development! See link above.

[somethingfunny]

GFS shows development! See link above.

I'm no expert at reading models but it appears to me like the Caribbean system suddenly shows up as soon as the GFS reaches the Point of Lower Resolution.

[Ivanhater]

GFS shows development! See link above.

I'm no expert at reading models but it appears to me like the Caribbean system suddenly shows up as soon as the GFS reaches the Point of Lower Resolution.

At the point of highest resolution (192 hours) it is there.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

Jeff Masters said on his site that the GFS & Nogaps have backed off on development in the Carribean. While Crown weather is still saying development. Did the GFS. Which really is crap that far out. Back off. Or now is it in October 2011?

the good Doc loves the NOGAPS for some reason. ....but 0z is showing something spinning up off of Panama and lifting out at 120 near the Yucatan.....cannot be ignored IMO....

[Janie2006]

Clearly the models are "sniffing" something out in the medium to long range. Of course it's impossible to forecast any sort of real development, let alone landfall, at this range. The global models also indicate a pattern shift towards the end of the month, which sounds just about right and is climatologically favored....the ridge over the south and southeast breaks down and shoves off. I have witnessed many a September dry spell broken by a tropical system.

Long story short, it's a climatologically favorable pattern for a Gulf storm. The season is a loooong way from over.

[flwxwatcher]

In the short term the NOGAPS ( which it seems forecasts fantasy Caribbean systems every week) and the Canadian are trying to brew something in the Caribbean but no support yet from other models.. In the longer term the EURO and GFS are showing some development in the NW Caribbean. I also will be watching to see if anything pops East of Florida next week around the Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is at BOC.Also has another system north of Hispanola.Loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HURRICANELONNY]

Most of the time when the pressures start dropping in the Carribean. The models start popping lows everywhere. Probably a low will form somewhere in the Carribean. Where. Who knows.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

NOGAPS in Cuba at 180hr