Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[duris]

From JB on Twitter: "Gasp: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr". (apologize if wrong thread; not sure model is for this pouch or not).

[Steve H.]

"Look at Houston, they'll be thunder on the hill........."!

[ROCK]

yeah this is not this pouch but should be in the NW carib thread....we need some mods in here to move things around.....


JB is right....at 144hr no less..

[duris]

Thought it might be Western Caribbean thread but since consensus there seemed to be no development...

[Vortex]

46 moving right along and currently near 44w...should be in the windwards in about 3 days..likely some very squally weather...THEN its gets interesting. The monsoon trough will lift north of panama this upcoming week and the energy from 46 should arrive late in the week. At the same time pressures will lower. The combination should spark genesis over the SW carribean in about a week..From that point a slow movement nnw seems reasonable with decent ridging to the north placing a developing hurricane over the NW carribean in about 10 days...that's how I see it at this point...




http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... ation.html

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS goes into the BOC ans stalls, then starts to lift NNE..Also, that is invest 94L just east of Florida

[lonelymike]

I'm beginning to wonder about the GFS this is like the third day it's pushed back development. The GFS seems to have improved some but the long range is still la-la land.

[Ivanhater]

I'm beginning to wonder about the GFS this is like the third day it's pushed back development. The GFS seems to have improved some but the long range is still la-la land.

Development and landfall are getting confused here...

Development is not pushed back...development starts in 6 days. The landfall is being pushed back because the GFS is having trouble with the upper air pattern and wants to stall the system for a few days, unlike a few days ago where there was a constant movement all the way to landfall.

6 days.

[lonelymike]

Much prefer the Euro upper air pattern any day over the GFS. JMO

[Ivanhater]

Much prefer the Euro upper air pattern any day over the GFS. JMO

Well here you go

Not looking good for the Gulf coast

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro Ensemble Mean is in strong agreement

[lonelymike]

No definately not looking good for central and western gulf with that upper air pattern. Still it is ten days

[Vortex]

12Z euro out in a few...

[Dean4Storms]

GFS has it missing that trough in this run, that is why it is still back in the BOC a couple days later. The GFS cannot decide if the TC will catch the trough or miss it, it keeps flipping back and forth.

[Ivanhater]

Well the higher resolution is not updating once again..have to wait for the lower resolution that will not show us exactly what is going on.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro still on it. Waiting on higher resolution.

[chrisjslucia]

CIMSS are showing this heading due west and passing over Barbados and St Vincent en route to the Caribbean. Has anyone assessed how accurate their early forecasting is/ has been? I also see they now have Pouch PG147L coming off the African coast around 16N and then heading NW above the CV. The season continues!

[Vortex]

Euro on it...H+240 NW carribean


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0091812!!/

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro 192 hours

[Ivanhater]

216 hours