Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[ConvergenceZone]

I will say this, it's been awhile since I've seen so many models consistently on a system like this one...Something has to come of it.

[Ivanhater]

240 hours

[cycloneye]

Agree Ivan. A combination of this small guy with Monsoon moisture.

[Vortex]

Strong consensus now...It will come together in a classic late september/early october manner....Usually a slow process to start but can end as a spectacular hurricane over the nw carribean at maturity...Mitch,Opal, Wilma just a few that come to mind...

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro Ensemble mean

[img][/img]

[Vortex]

00z long range candian last night..



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal240.gif

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian Ensemble mean from last night

1002 mb in the Gulf at that range is very rare. Indicative of a large and powerful system in the Gulf.

[Vortex]

These types of storms are some of my favorite to watch...Typically the thermodynamics are off the charts and often convection fires upwards of -90C. In addition the circulations are often very strong and looking at the upper air pattern it looks like an anti-cyclone may be overhead as well...Let us not forgot how high the heat potential is as well down there...

[Vortex]

18Z nam shows energy from 46 entering eastern carribean and broad area of low pressure forming over sw carribean...It may be the combination of these 2 that really get things going in about a week...


H+84


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Vortex]

18Z GFS 46 pushing through windwards at H+84


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[Vortex]

Heat potential charts...with a potential hurricane in the NW carribean in 10 days look out if this verifies...


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0260ca.jpg

[gatorcane]

Heat potential charts...with a potential hurricane in the NW carribean in 10 days look out if this verifies...


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0260ca.jpg

It's truly amazing how much heat potential is there. It has been untapped since alex

[Vortex]

46 enters western carribean as low pressure forms over SW carribean in about 5-6 days..






http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

[Vortex]

H+144 low begins to take shape over SW carribean..All ingredients are in place...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[Vortex]

H+168 slowly organizing just NE of nicaragua moving NNW


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Yep Vortex, development begins around 132 hours on this run

[gatorcane]

Trough digging at 180 hours. System heading nnw in the nw caribbean

[Vortex]

H+180 just north of honduras..Appears broad so may jump a bit east beyond H+180 before back west and end somewhere near the yucatan channel/yucatan then who knows...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[gatorcane]

Misses the united states to the east. Landfall in Cuba. Close to southern Florida though.

[Ivanhater]

As expected, GFS is swinging along with landfalls.