Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[gatorcane]

As expected, GFS is swinging along with landfalls.

That looks more like a November track. Not buying that. I guess as it is out at 276 hours I can understand why.

[Vortex]

Thats some trough along the east coast....probablly abit to agressive and about 2 weeks too early to see it track ene but this set-up would be very bad for the east gulf and Florida.this will certainly be something to watch in later runs...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

[JTD]

For the first time though, we have an indication that this storm may recurve away from the US. Something that must be taken note of!

[gatorcane]

For the first time though, we have an indication that this storm may recurve away from the US. Something that must be taken note of!

If it recurves aware from the united states, all I have to say is what will it take to get a hurricane to hit the united states in 2010.

[Ivanhater]

For the first time though, we have an indication that this storm may recurve away from the US. Something that must be taken note of!

I posted a few days ago the GFS would add a no development run and a recurve mixed in. Its just part of model cycles.

[Vortex]

that is the first time GFS had such a significant/deep trough...if the 00z globals indicate anything remotely as strong than i'll give it a 2nd look...Too early IMO...The concerning part is a significant weakness along the east coast that would probablly put the eastern gulf/fl at risk..

[Ivanhater]

Also, the GFS ends with another system in the NW Caribbean..the pattern is set for the NW Caribbean to spit out storms into the Gulf..

[JTD]

For the first time though, we have an indication that this storm may recurve away from the US. Something that must be taken note of!

I posted a few days ago the GFS would add a no development run and a recurve mixed in. Its just part of model cycles.

Yep I remember well you posting that. Was just thinking about it actually. lol.

This run makes me VERY curious to see what the 0z has to say since it will have new data ingested into it.

[Vortex]

Btw, look at h+384 we do it all over again...


Anyways this is the time of year living in FL we must pay very close attention.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps all over it


H+144



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ronjon]

Energy that sparks the storm on the 18z GFS comes from the eastern caribbean. Here it is just south of Hispanola.

[SFLcane]

As expected, GFS is swinging along with landfalls.

That looks more like a November track. Not buying that. I guess as it is out at 276 hours I can understand why.

why wouldn't you buy into that? There's been persistent trofiness just about all season long.

[gatorcane]

It could happen but thinking the gfs is too aggressive with that trough. That is also only the first run it has showed that.

[Vortex]

here's the 18Z nogaps loop


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[gatorcane]

here's the 18Z nogaps loop


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

I'm on the iPad, got an image?

Nevermind guess it's not java or flash so it worked

[Vortex]

I think the 00z run on all the globals should be quite interesting...Well probablly start getting a better picture in the next few days as to what part of the gulf this may pose a greater threat too...

[gatorcane]

I think the 00z run on all the globals should be quite interesting...Well probablly start getting a better picture in the next few days as to what part of the gulf this may pose a greater threat too...

I bet you the 00z runs are more west.

See you all at midnight. Will be looking at these runs

[Vortex]

I think the 00z run on all the globals should be quite interesting...Well probablly start getting a better picture in the next few days as to what part of the gulf this may pose a greater threat too...

I bet you the 00z runs are more west.

See you all at midnight. Will be looking at these runs

I'll be there

[hurricaneCW]

As expected, GFS is swinging along with landfalls.

That looks more like a November track. Not buying that. I guess as it is out at 276 hours I can understand why.

why wouldn't you buy into that? There's been persistent trofiness just about all season long.

A storm developing in the NW Caribbean in late September/October is highly unlikely to miss the U.S. as it gets pulled north. First of all, it will hit land, that's pretty much a guarantee unless it does some matrix style moves to get around it. Florida would likely get hit plus the gfs is far too aggressive with such a strong trough digging down to the Caribbean in late September/Early October.

The most likely path is the western Caribbean to either a hit on the Yucatan or just to the east, then the Eastern gulf with Florida more than likely getting the brunt of the system. I see a very Wilma like track setup with this system but it's so far out, anything could happen at this point.

[Vortex]

00Z Nam indicates a broad area of low pressure will sit and spin over the SW carribean sea over the next 3-4 days..At the same time energy from 46 approaches from the east in 5-6 days....


00Z NAM loop:



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml