Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

Pressure dropping..192

[Vortex]

Notice low along mid-atlantic...on the 18Z this developed quickly right off the coast and lifted this system ene/ne...let's see how it handles it this run...

[Ivanhater]

Moving east in the Caribbean

[ROCK]

[Vortex]

wow, for the second run big time low near the mid-atlantic...

[South Texas Storms]

develops it in the caribbean in 216 hours.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

NOGAPS 0z

[Ivanhater]

Tampa

[Ivanhater]

Big bend

[Hurricaneman]

the models over the last several days have had anything from a texas landfall to an eastern seaboard runner so I think anyone from Brownsville to Halafax needs to keep an eye on this one

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

Also, that is one highly sheared mess going into the Big bend area

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

Until I see 7 or 8 more runs with a similar path across florida I wouldn't take too much stock in the 00 run. If the euro and canadian show up with fl hits than it will merit more credibility. For now it's likely we will have a storm in the western carribean in 7-10 days.

[Vortex]

00Z nogaps has a strengthening storm moving slowly nw over the nw carribean in just over a week.





https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

00z canadian stronger this run....it appears over the sw carribean towards the end...looking forward to the long range





http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[South Texas Storms]

long range cmc has a strong 972mb hurricane moving northward towards the florida panhandle in 240 hours

[blp]

Yep CMC deeper on this run.

[stormhunter7]

been looking into CMC... appears that it keeps bringing into the Gulf of Alaska lows... with each one deep and stronger... but i would supect if may be over doing it? Further out... "wider margin of data/model." With these last few runs... it changes the pattern down stream... over US which it seems to show a more zonal flow with lows coming out of s. central US and tracking to great lakes area? Erodes the east coast high down too which would leave EGOM under more of a threat... which climo wise is would make sense. All the models seem to point to a low devlopment in 4-7 days and then another one... in 8-12 days... with latter being the atlantic PGI46L?

[blp]

00z HWRF Igor run picks up our system in the eastern carribean. Shows up nicely.