Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[ROCK]

until the EURO consolidates its way to soon to say what the steering is going to be at 240hr or that it has jumped on board the GFS train.......look how broad this low is....takes up the entire SGOM....

[ROCK]

UKMET...nada at 120hr..too early...if it was out a few more days then it would see it...

[ROCK]

18Z NAM.....got something cooking in the sw carib and our little fellow moving into the Windwards...

[ROCK]

[ROCK]

[Blown Away]

This has been a confusing thread to follow. Is PGI46L supposed to develop in the SW Caribbean or near the Windwards? The GFS runs that showed SFL was it coming from the SW Caribbean or tracking north of Hispaniola into Bahamas and then SFL?

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro Ensemble is loving this

192



216



240

[chrisjslucia]

Ivan / Vortex, I have been watching this one for some while and the models now seem to push it further North, over both Windwards and Leewards. As it looks like it will take two to three days to pass over, what is your reading of it's state of play at that time? TD or much less?

[ROCK]

Ivan you EURO hugging again......notice the EURO and GFS have completely different set-ups aloft at that range....whos taking bets?

[ROCK]

This has been a confusing thread to follow. Is PGI46L supposed to develop in the SW Caribbean or near the Windwards? The GFS runs that showed SFL was it coming from the SW Caribbean or tracking north of Hispaniola into Bahamas and then SFL?

we are waiting for the little guy to move over from the windards and merge with the feature in the SW carib..then we have take off....

[ROCK]

GFS 18z rolling....where is Vortex? he loves the 18z GFS....

[gatorcane]

18z gfs running.........

[cycloneye]

Ivan / Vortex, I have been watching this one for some while and the models now seem to push it further North, over both Windwards and Leewards. As it looks like it will take two to three days to pass over, what is your reading of it's state of play at that time? TD or much less?

I am not Ivan or Vortex, but I can tell you that GFS had PGI46L developing before the Lesser Antilles earlier last week, but abandoned that idea.Now is expected to pass by the islands as it is right now without developing bringing scattered showers.

[Vortex]

and we roll....

[chrisjslucia]

Ivan / Vortex, I have been watching this one for some while and the models now seem to push it further North, over both Windwards and Leewards. As it looks like it will take two to three days to pass over, what is your reading of it's state of play at that time? TD or much less?

I am not Ivan or Vortex, but I can tell you that GFS had PGI46L developing before the Lesser Antilles earlier last week, but abandoned that idea.Now is expected to pass by the islands as it is right now without developing bringing scattered showers.

Even better, a friend from the Islands! Thanks Cyclone.

[Vortex]

Ivan / Vortex, I have been watching this one for some while and the models now seem to push it further North, over both Windwards and Leewards. As it looks like it will take two to three days to pass over, what is your reading of it's state of play at that time? TD or much less?

I think the combination of a wind surge and the passing of this wave will induce very squally weather across much of the windwards and leeward islands..Not expecting anything organized but don't be surprised to get gusts to 40 and localized flooding as it passes Tuesday...

[Vortex]

12z Euro Ensemble is loving this

192

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif

216

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP216.gif

240

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

Noticed that ivan, I think over the next few runs the euro will be abit more agressive with strength as well..




*edited by sg to remove IMG tags - scroll up a few posts if you want to see them, or click the links

[Vortex]

H+42 all the players on the field...lowering pressures over the western carribean, additional energy over the central carribean heading west and 46 about to pass through the islands...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[cycloneye]

Ivan / Vortex, I have been watching this one for some while and the models now seem to push it further North, over both Windwards and Leewards. As it looks like it will take two to three days to pass over, what is your reading of it's state of play at that time? TD or much less?

I am not Ivan or Vortex, but I can tell you that GFS had PGI46L developing before the Lesser Antilles earlier last week, but abandoned that idea.Now is expected to pass by the islands as it is right now without developing bringing scattered showers.

Even better, a friend from the Islands! Thanks Cyclone.

The last position at 2100z is 12.0N-52.2W.

[KWT]

This is starting to look a little like a classic latter season development with the TW heading into a region of lower pressure in a very warm and favouable part of the basin...

The fact the ECM ensembles are getting agressive with this is a big warning sign IMO...the whole part of the W.Caribbean looks primed in 5-7 days time for development.