Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Here is the radar from Bermuda. It already shows bands of rain to the south.I too am concerned for Bermuda Barbara.

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

[msbee]

Here is the radar from Bermuda. It already shows bands of rain to the south.I too am concerned for Bermuda Barbara.

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

the storm surge is what they have to watch out for,
Note what crownweather says about their houses and the storm surge.


Issued: Saturday, September 18, 2010 830 am EDT/730 am CDT

For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.

Hurricane Igor:
For Information About Hurricane Igor with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3068 .

Hurricane Warnings Are In Effect For Bermuda

Data from reconnaissance aircraft show that the central pressure with Igor was 939 millibars, however, maximum winds were 110 mph, which makes Igor a borderline Category 2-Category 3 hurricane. Environmental conditions are favorable for strengthening today right through Sunday and it seems quite possible that Bermuda will be impacted by a Category 3 hurricane on Sunday night. Igor wobbled a bit to the west-northwest overnight, however, the hurricane is now tracking northwest at a forward speed of 13 mph. Igor will track northwestward today and then turn to the north on Sunday and track either right over or very close to Bermuda during Sunday night before turning to the northeast and headed out into the open Atlantic on Monday.

Igor is a very large hurricane and has a radius of Category 2 or higher winds around 45 miles from the center, hurricane force winds extending out to 90 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extending out to 300 miles from the center.

As it appears right now, tropical storm force winds will start impacting Bermuda sometime this evening with hurricane force winds reaching the island during Sunday afternoon and continuing through Sunday night. As it appears right now, the worst of the winds should impact the island around midnight Sunday night with winds in excess of 100 mph likely. It needs to be emphasized that Bermuda will experience about 40 hours of tropical storm force winds and up to 8 to 10 hours of hurricane force winds. This long duration pounding on the island could be quite stressful on the buildings there and there is the very real potential for significant damage on Bermuda.

It should be noted that the buildings in Bermuda are some of the best constructed in the world. The homes in Bermuda are constructed of "Bermuda Stone" a locally quarried limestone or of concrete block. Roofs are made of limestone slate tiles cemented together. The commercial buildings on the island are constructed of reinforced concrete. The windows of both commercial and residential buildings are generally small and window shutters are common. These buildings are designed to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and wind gusts of up to 150 mph.

There are a couple of folks I know that have flown out to Bermuda to intercept Igor. One is Greg Nordstrom of the website Eye of the Storm: http://ldctstormchaser.blogspot.com/ . He has reported that the locals in Bermuda are in amazement on how high the surf is already and are actually larger in size than what was experienced with Fabian when that hurricane was two days away from landfall. Another individual that is now in Bermuda is Tim Millar of the Cyclone Research Group. His group and Mark Sudduth and Jesse Bass of HurricaneTrack are working together to provide live video from Bermuda. That can be seen at http://www.hurricanetrack.com .

Igor is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches across Bermuda.

I am fairly concerned about the storm surge across Bermuda. Hurricane Fabian back in 2003 produced a storm surge that flooded about 20 percent of the island. Since the surf is already considerably higher than what was experienced with Fabian, I am concerned that the storm surge could be larger with Igor. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves, especially along the south coast of the island.

All interests in Bermuda should closely monitor Igor and consult your local media outlets for advice from the Bermuda Weather Service and local officials.

Elsewhere In The Tropical Atlantic:
Pretty much all of my attention this weekend is on Igor, however, I did want to quickly mention a few other things:

First is that Karl has dissipated over the mountains of southern Mexico, however, heavy rainfall will still be a significant threat this weekend across this part of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Julia is expected to threaten no one and will become absorbed by Igor in a couple of days.

I will be closely monitoring the Caribbean over the next one to two weeks for potential development. Many of the global model members are forecasting development in the western or southwestern Caribbean next weekend. The GFS model continues to insist that this potential system could be a Gulf threat around the end of September or the first few days of October. The 10 day European model forecast map shows a system developing in the western Caribbean. This scenario has the backing of the ensemble model guidance which also shows potential development in the western Caribbean as early as next weekend.

At this point, this is something to monitor over the next week or so and see if the real time data matches to what the model guidance shows.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Sunday.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.




__._,_.___

[bvigal]

So, is that a death toll of 3 now for Igor? Gusty, didn't you post that a fisherman had been lost in Guadeloupe? Our lifeguard organization wisely closed our beaches (no swimming) yesterday until further notice, but at least through the weekend. The risk isn't so much the actual wave heights, but the mix of various direction and period pulse creating deadly currents, and an occassional ROGUE wave. Today the wave model shows a pulse of very, very long period passing through our area, see link, below. I hope everyone in the path, including the US East Coast, takes extraordinary precautions against swell and/or surge from Igor!!

entire report at http://www.weathercarib.com/100918-peakper.pdf

NOTE: Imageshack would not upload the pdf file. Anybody know a site that will store pdfs?? (report will be deleted from my website in routine daily cleanup)

[cycloneye]

As of the 11 AM Advisory,it tracks only 3.7 miles from Bermuda.

Results for Bermuda (32.37N, 64.68W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 32.4N, 64.7W or about 3.7 miles (6.0 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 41.5 hours (Monday, September 20 at 4:30AM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm

[msbee]

As of the 11 AM Advisory,it tracks only 3.7 miles from Bermuda.

Results for Bermuda (32.37N, 64.68W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 32.4N, 64.7W or about 3.7 miles (6.0 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 41.5 hours (Monday, September 20 at 4:30AM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm

that's basically a direct hit!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1204 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED THAT THE
GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HURRICANE
IGOR NOW WELL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ...CONTINUED TO SPREAD FRAGMENTS
OF LOW TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RESULTED IN THE
FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HOWEVER WAS FAST MOVING AND SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED. EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS
OVER ISOLATED SPOTS OF CULEBRA....VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF AND DIMINISHING JUST AROUND SUNSET. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AT THIS TIME TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WHICH LOOKED GOOD FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
WITH SOME PASSING SHRA EN ROUTE BTW PR AND VI...AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE E INTERIOR SECTION OF PR. REST OF PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
UNCHANGED.

[bvigal]

As of the 11 AM Advisory,it tracks only 3.7 miles from Bermuda.

Results for Bermuda (32.37N, 64.68W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 32.4N, 64.7W or about 3.7 miles (6.0 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 41.5 hours (Monday, September 20 at 4:30AM AST).

http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm

that's basically a direct hit!

It does indeed look bad for Bermuda. Just a precautionary note about that calculator:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2069320#p2069320

[Gustywind]

:cry: So, is that a death toll of 3 now for Igor? Gusty, didn't you post that a fisherman had been lost in Guadeloupe? Our lifeguard organization wisely closed our beaches (no swimming) yesterday until further notice, but at least through the weekend. The risk isn't so much the actual wave heights, but the mix of various direction and period pulse creating deadly currents, and an occassional ROGUE wave. Today the wave model shows a pulse of very, very long period passing through our area, see link, below. I hope everyone in the path, including the US East Coast, takes extraordinary precautions against swell and/or surge from Igor!!

entire report at http://www.weathercarib.com/100918-peakper.pdf

NOTE: Imageshack would not upload the pdf file. Anybody know a site that will store pdfs?? (report will be deleted from my website in routine daily cleanup)

Yeah i can confirmed you that for the fisherman Bvigal. "3 death toll that's too much !!!! Meteo-France Guadeloupe have backed off Guadeloupe to yellow alert after the previous alert orange. St Marteen and St Barth are always under an orange alert.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SLOWLY IMPROVING SURF AND SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HURRICANE IGOR CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION. A SURGE IN MOISTURE
IS EXPECT TO BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO HURRICANE IGOR...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 610 MILES NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...IS
STEERING FRAGMENTED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. EXPECT
CONTINUED FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE TO GET STEERED FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BEFORE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A RETURN TO MORE TYPICALLY
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK...WITH DAILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON...AND MORE ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS HURRICANE IGOR CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL REGION. EVEN SO...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS. PASSING LOW TO MID LVL CLDS AND ACCOMPANYING SHRA
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
19/00Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAINLY IN AND AROUND
TJSJ...TJNR...TISX...TIST AND TNCM. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FM
THE SW AT 10 TO 20 KTS SFC-10K FT BCMG MORE WESTERLY AT 25-30 KTS BTW
10-25K FT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The tail of Igor will dump plenty of rain in the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS HURRICANE IGOR CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN
WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
INCREASING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE HIGH RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS...AS THE
LONG-PERIOD NNE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGOR...PROMOTE LARGE
BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOW A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF IGOR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
DEEPER SURGE OF MOISTURE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE
TONIGHT...PUSHING GRADUALLY WESTWARD OVER PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES EARLY MONDAY. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE 06Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE PWAT
VALUES WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.3 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY.
DURING THAT PERIOD...IS FORECAST AN ENHANCED OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. IF THIS VERIFIES...THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
AFTERWARD...EXPECT A TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU
19/16Z. BRIEF MVFR PSBL AT TKPK AND TNCM AND TIST...TISX. AFT 19/16Z
A MOIST PLUME OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE AREA.
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR VSBYS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT FROM SW BUT GUSTS
TO 35 KTS PSBL IN TSRAS.

&&

.MARINE...THE DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO SEND LONG
PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE
SCA THRESHOLDS AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES ARE EXPECTED FROM 7 TO 9 FEET IN
NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS...WITH BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 10 TO 16 FEET
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORELINE. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER
TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good news for Bermuda as it appears the eye will track west but less strong than before, so hopefully no major damage nor loos of life after all is over.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191939
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
339 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE SWATCH OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO HURRICANE IGOR
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...
EVENTUALLY BRINGING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. LARGE...LONG
PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE IGOR...WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SURF THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...WHILE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WELL ADVERTISED AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
BEING PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WEST
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HORUS...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
THE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VI WESTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TOMORROW. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ONCE THIS BAND OF MOISTURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
AND PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST GFS
INDICATES THAT THIS RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD THE
PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A BRIEF SURGE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON FRIDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE IGOR CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS THAT
WERE GENERATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA A FEW DAYS AGO ARE MAKING FOR
ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEA CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. EXPECT CONTINUED ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SEAS FINALLY EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 7 FEET
THERE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT AFTN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL OF PR AND THE USVI AT LEAST THROUGH 20/00Z. SOME OF THE
TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF SFC WND GUST OF 35 KTS OR
GREATER. LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHRA AND TSRA
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND NOW MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN TSRA ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA ESPECIALLY EN ROUTE BTW THE VI...PR...AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCES FOR TEMPO MVFR/IFR DUE TO THESE
PASSING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE CONSIDERED THROUGH AT LEAST 20/12Z.

[Gustywind]

Strong tstorms have developped the last 3 hours especially near my locality of Baie-Mahault and Petit-Bourg too. Meteo-France reported values up to 60 millimeters and even little more.

[msbee]

hi Gusty
we're having a lot of rain and storms too.
Nothing like what Bermuda must be experiencing though

http://weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

[expat2carib]

Same here on Dominica Gusty. We had it for 2 hours ago.I think it's weather coming in from South America and what possibly will be the storm predicted to develop in the Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

hi Gusty
we're having a lot of rain and storms too.
Nothing like what Bermuda must be experiencing though

http://weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

Hi Barbara thanks for this info, same here but yeah for sure nothing like what Bermuda is experiencing. Let's be vigilant as usual.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Same here on Dominica Gusty. We had it for 2 hours ago.I think it's weather coming in from South America and what possibly will be the storm predicted to develop in the Caribbean.

Ok glad to have your info.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE HURRICANE IGOR WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS GENERATED RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH. THIS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED TO AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING TO
HURRICANE IGOR. THIS WILL FUEL AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA.

THIS AREA MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW
AND PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...TKPK...AND TJPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FROM 20/18Z THROUGH
20/22Z MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJPS...TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ...IN TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...AT THIS MOMENT THE THE BUOY 41043 IS REPORTING SWELLS OF
AROUND 7 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS AND THE BUOY 41053 IS
REPORTING 10.5 FEET AT 13 SECONDS...THEREFORE A DECREASING TREND
IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE NORTHERN BUOYS...41046
AND 41049...ARE REPORTING SEAS OF ABOVE 12 FEET. ALTHOUGH WE WILL
EXPERIENCE SEAS TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER SWELL PULSE WILL
BE REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

[abajan]

Raining quite heavily here now and if it keeps falling like this for the next 30 minutes or so, flooding will definitely occur. I may have to shut down computer because I suspect lightning will soon start flashing. There was quite a bit of lightning last night as well before I hit the sack.

What I can’t figure is how, seeing the clearly developing moisture just east of the islands (and knowing that several models have been predicting something re: Pouch PGI46L), our meteorological office could issue the following forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy to cloudy at times with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Tonight: Fair to partly cloudy with some showers.

Somehow, that just seems too slight to me and I would’ve gone with something more along the lines of:

Today and tonight: Cloudy to overcast with frequent moderate to heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms and occasional gusty winds.

But hey, what do I know? They’re the pros.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bvigal]

Abajan, you are correct. And the radar doesn't lie. Stay safe from that lighting!

Gusty, can you post a news report verifying the fisherman lost? He seems to have been forgotten by the english media, at least.

Yesterday was a relief to see Igor's winds continue to drop. As bad as it was, I really feel that Bermuda could have had much worse, if earlier forecasts of a cat 3 dead on had proved to be true. So happy for them that it's over now and weather will begin to improve!

Lots of nasty tstorms in east Caribbean yesterday, some with 50,000 tops. My computer, battery, tv, etc. was unplugged for several hours. Some hastily-composed loops of radar and satellite yesterday: