Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[SFLcane]

This is starting to look a little like a classic latter season development with the TW heading into a region of lower pressure in a very warm and favouable part of the basin...

The fact the ECM ensembles are getting agressive with this is a big warning sign IMO...the whole part of the W.Caribbean looks primed in 5-7 days time for development.

I concur....conditions aloft look great with incredible octane down there. Should be an interesting couple of days.

[cycloneye]

This is the 12z GFS at Predict pouch site.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI46L-12.html

[Vortex]

BTW, as of the 12Z GFS run every single run for 26 straight runs has indicated a cyclone in the long range over the western carribean...

[ROCK]

[Vortex]

H+132 46 arrives, everything in place...still broad but should see this gell by 168...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

[Vortex]

H+150 Broad low pressure should organize a definitive low between honduras and jamaica by 174



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

There is really little doubt that something is going to spin up in the western Carib. in a week or so. All the guidance is showing lowering pressures and a low closing off to some degree. The million dollar question is how deep will it become and where will it go?

On the depth issue....I can see no reason with all the juicy airmass and hot SST's why this could not become a very strong TC.

On the track issue.... Going to all depend on the ridge over the Gulf and SE states and if a trough will dig deep enough to pick this up or at least create a weakness in the ridging. With the pattern we've seen thus far the ridging over the northern Gulf has held firm, but you just have to know a change is coming as we move into this time of year. We've had very little precip. here along the eastern Gulf Coast this whole month due to the ridge and I cannot help but think we are due for a change in this pattern.

[ROCK]

nothing really consolidating yet...

[Vortex]

nothing really consolidating yet...

not yet, and very typical of classic western carribean storms(slow to start)...it will by h 174 abit further east

[Vortex]

Bingo!
H+168



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[ROCK]

[Vortex]

H+168 still somewhat broad probablly a bit more east then we start the deepening and nnw movement

[ROCK]

[ROCK]

228..trof picks it up and out to sea..... that was fun...

[Ivanhater]

And with that kind of shear...Florida will have a sunny day

[SFLcane]

Much weaker this run and moves east of florida on the 18z. Still the trend is for something developing down there and possibly moving in the general direction of the southeast.

[Vortex]

H+228 just SE of SFL...probablly to far to the E but the GFS is certainly implying on a significant E. Gulf/FL threat




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Now that would be a freaking deep trough for this time of year, not unheard of but not usual.

[Vortex]

The idea by the GFS is certainly possible but for late sept/early oct I think its overdone....

[ROCK]

[quote="Ivanhater"]And with that kind of shear...Florida will have a sunny day

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... m.gifquote]


a very sunny day....you could go to the beach.....