Global model runs discussion

[sfwx]

15 day forecast for Port St. Lucie:
http://www.accuweather.com/us/fl/port-s ... sp?fday=14



October 1
ENE at 29 mph
Gusts: 58 mph
Very windy; humid with rain


Amount of Rain: 1.55 in
Hours of Precipitation: 10 hrs
Hours of Rain: 10 hrs

Night

N at 19 mph
Gusts: 54 mph
Considerable cloudiness and humid with showers and thunderstorms

Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorm Probability: 60%
Amount of Precipitation: 1.55 in
Amount of Rain: 1.55 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
Hours of Precipitation: 10 hrs
Hours of Rain: 10 hrs




October 2

W at 19 mph
Gusts: 47 mph
Windy and humid with rain
Amount of Rain: 1.33 in
Hours of Precipitation: 10 hrs
Hours of Rain: 10 hrs

Night

WSW at 29 mph
Gusts: 54 mph
Very windy; periods of rain
Hours of Precipitation: 3 hrs
Hours of Rain: 3 hrs

[Ptarmigan]

Regardless what the computer models predict 16 days off, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean is now the hotbed for tropical development. No one should let their guards down. Something tells me we may a get a hurricane in Texas in the next month.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[LaBreeze]

Regardless what the computer models predict 16 days off, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean is now the hotbed for tropical development. No one should let their guards down. Something tells me we may a get a hurricane in Texas in the next month.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why Texas?

[AussieMark]

I know its 300 hrs out but GFS has been on this one for a few days now

This is 00Z run at 288 hrs

[jlauderdal]

I know its 300 hrs out but GFS has been on this one for a few days now

This is 00Z run at 288 hrs

shutters going up today, scare the neighbors

[flwxwatcher]

The EURO and the GFS are both on board for a NW Caribbean system in the longer range. It will be interesting to see how the pattern sets up in the longer range as far as the possible steering currents for this system.

[ROCK]

The EURO and the GFS are both on board for a NW Caribbean system in the longer range. It will be interesting to see how the pattern sets up in the longer range as far as the possible steering currents for this system.

The EURO though not showing a BOC burial from the 0z todays 12z shows a very broad low over the entire SGOM.....plus long range 240HR....not one model is good at that range in predicting steering layers....

[Ptarmigan]

Why Texas?

A poor choice word on my part. I should of said all of the landmass regardless is at risk.

From what I have noticed, a good number of computer models are predicting a strong hurricane in the next 2 weeks. Like I said before, the Caribbean and Gulf is where tropical activity will likely happen. If it had a name, it would either be Matthew, Nicole, or Otto. Invest 94L is getting better organized, which would make it Lisa.

[Ptarmigan]

The EURO though not showing a BOC burial from the 0z todays 12z shows a very broad low over the entire SGOM.....plus long range 240HR....not one model is good at that range in predicting steering layers....

I know those computer models are days off, but in the past I remember, they have gotten it right. I believe the computers were close with Dean in 2007 and Ike in 2008.

[ROCK]

The EURO though not showing a BOC burial from the 0z todays 12z shows a very broad low over the entire SGOM.....plus long range 240HR....not one model is good at that range in predicting steering layers....

I know those computer models are days off, but in the past I remember, they have gotten it right. I believe the computers were close with Dean in 2007 and Ike in 2008.

ECM nailed IKE about 196hr out while every other model was shooting this up the spine of FL....still though 240hr is too far in the future for any of these models.....IMO.....tonights 0z ECM will help...

[LaBreeze]

Why Texas?

A poor choice word on my part. I should of said all of the landmass regardless is at risk.

From what I have noticed, a good number of computer models are predicting a strong hurricane in the next 2 weeks. Like I said before, the Caribbean and Gulf is where tropical activity will likely happen. If it had a name, it would either be Matthew, Nicole, or Otto. Invest 94L is getting better organized, which would make it Lisa.

Not a problem, I was just unsure - I thought that maybe you were on to something that I had not seen or read yet.

[Ptarmigan]

ECM nailed IKE about 196hr out while every other model was shooting this up the spine of FL....still though 240hr is too far in the future for any of these models.....IMO.....tonights 0z ECM will help...

I remember seeing the ECM about 10 days before Ike. Only thing if I recall was that hit had it hitting Louisiana. I am sure someone has it as of today. Since all these computer models I have seen lately here seem to be consistent of a hurricane development does make me somewhat more concerned than usual. Normally, I do not put stock on computer models that far, but if they are consistent about it that could be something to not be dismissive about.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS at 90hr


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

120hr

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

NOGAPS and CMC are similar to the GFS in the short term.....lets see if it burys it into MX

[StormClouds63]

MJO now in favorable phase (9/19/10):

[BigA]

What is the NOGAPS forming on the eastern seaboard near the end of the run? Is it purely extratropical, or maybe subtropical?

[CourierPR]

NOGAPS and CMC are similar to the GFS in the short term.....lets see if it burys it into MX

Looks like that 120 NOGAPS has a Wilma type track.

[CourierPR]

What is the NOGAPS forming on the eastern seaboard near the end of the run? Is it purely extratropical, or maybe subtropical?

Isn't that the Caribbean system after it crosses S FL peninsula?

[caneseddy]

What is the NOGAPS forming on the eastern seaboard near the end of the run? Is it purely extratropical, or maybe subtropical?

Isn't that the Caribbean system after it crosses S FL peninsula?

No, that is actually a system forming off the Carolinas from a trough moving along the EC

The Caribbean system is the one south of Cuba heading towards Florida